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Thread: Fine Gael 2007 election success a dead cat bounce?

  1. #1
    Edo
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    Fine Gael 2007 election success a dead cat bounce?

    Good article in the Indo

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news ... 95373.html



    Fine Gael must make way for a new party that has no Civil War baggage
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    By John Crown
    Sunday June 10 2007

    WHEN the Free State soldiers tied their erstwhile Republican colleagues to a landmine at Ballyseedy, in one of the worst atrocities of the Irish Civil War, little did they realise that their action would affect the health care that their descendants would receive 85 years later.

    While treaty ports, oaths of allegiance and border commissions are no longer the mainstay of political pub talk, there is no doubt that the shadow of the Civil War still looms over and perverts our democracy.

    All societies are made up of diverse people with differing, and often competitive opinions and ambitions. Democracy is supposed to provide a mechanism to allow these potentially conflicting aspirations to be resolved amicably, and to give us representatives that reflect ourselves.

    It is a mirror for society, but also provides the best mechanism for tempering the excesses of its citizens. It is imperfect, but all of the alternatives are gruesome.

    We have a broad national consensus about most of the big issues. Most of us grumble about taxes, but understand the need for public services, and a degree of wealth redistribution. Similarly, most would sort of like a united Ireland, but only if they want to unite with us. Approximately 70 per cent of the electorate just voted for parties with virtually identical centrist ideas, and another 10 per cent for a party slightly left of centre.

    The only important area where there was a major policy difference between the two main parties was in health, and even here the difference had less to do with ideology than with coalition strategies.

    Fianna Fail bought into the Progressive Democrat co-location plan, and Fine Gael adopted Labour's innovative universal insurance scheme. The two big parties, which sometimes resemble skiers slaloming past each other to the right and left, could just as easily have adopted the policy of the other.

    Why then were Sinn Fein and the Progressive Democrats, small unrepresentative parties of the right and left, being talked about as power brokers? Is it because we are a fractious, politically divided people? No, our politics are tame. Other nations have car-bombed polling stations, impersonation of the dead, political riots, million-strong eve-of-election rallies in the Revolutionary Square.

    We had the tangle in the triangle between Michael McDowell and John Gormley.

    Why did so many people vote the way they did? The notion that people voted for economic stability at a time of plenty is undoubtedly partially true, but only partially.

    The last Fine Gael-led rainbow was unceremoniously dumped from office by the electorate at a time of plenty and of economic optimism.

    Much of the discourse has centred on the core vote phenomenon, presumably congenitally determined along Civil War lines, which each of the major parties can tap into, and which thwarts attempts at political change. Thus Enda Kenny, who led his party to a near-record increase in seat numbers in an election where the Government lost many seats, still finds himself running a minority party, which by common agreement can never achieve government except through coalition.

    Of course, if Fine Gael were selecting a coalition partner on the grounds of policy compatibility alone, it would be Fianna Fail.

    Less commentary has focused on the core anti-vote. Some people will never ever vote for Fianna Fail. Others will never ever vote for Fine Gael. The latter are more numerous, and the result is that the odds are always stacked against Fine Gael, and give Fianna Fail a near permanent grip on power.

    Even though FG (like FF) is a centrist party whose policies reflect a centrist electorate, it can only get into power by forging coalitions with parties of different ideologies. Why? Simply put, there is an artificial glass ceiling to its potential vote.

    The founders of the Progressive Democrats attempted to break the mould of

    'If FG were selecting a coalition partner on the grounds of compatibility alone, it would be Fianna Fail'

    Irish politics, but their efforts were thwarted by the continued survival of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

    In truth, there is only one way to break this mould, and that is for one or both of the Civil War parties to disband.

    Fianna Fail won't do this. They are guaranteed to be in power more than half of the time. Fine Gael is different.

    FG politicians who are ambitious for themselves, and concerned for the future of democracy in their country, should consider disbanding the party and establishing a new one, a party which would have none of the Civil War baggage that prevents traditional but disenchanted Fianna Failers from joining it.

    Some centrist-minded PDs, Greens and Labour folk might join too.

    I am reminded of the words of Bill Clinton, uttered also in the aftermath of another inconclusive election, the 2000 US presidential contest.

    In his post-election address, Bill stated that "the people have spoken, we just don't know what they have said". While the leaders of our two main parties are each sort of justified in claiming that they have some sort of mandate to form a government, we find ourselves two weeks later still not knowing exactly what our people said. Given the current party structure, will we ever?

    John Crown is a consultant oncologist

    Now that we are a little further away from the euphoria of the GE and regaining 1997 levels - the question must be asked - What did FG achieve ?

    From what I can see now is that FG hoovered up the independent and PD vote - they got the anti-goverment vote - but in the final analysis did not lay a glove on FF.

    Now that FF have shown that they will have no problems talking to anybody about forming a government - they will be the kingmakers for the forseeable future - if you want to have any influence in the future direction of this country you will have to go to FF - either joining them directly as a member or coalesing with them as part of a smaller party.

    As I got ad-nauseum on the doorsteps over the last 2 months - What is the difference between FF and FG ?- the old civil war divide is fading away - having roughly the same policies with a moral superiority complex just wont cut it anymore - having younger faces enunciating the same tired old message wont do it either - personally, looking at some of "new faces" (I canvassed for one of them) they come across as high on style and image but a bit lightweight on substance - they have it all to do to convince me otherwise.

    As FG look forward to another dail term in the wilderness of opposition - unless the economy goes into complete meltdown - as pessimistic as I am regarding FF management of the economy - that won't happen - FG need to have a serious debate about what the party actually stands for anymore ,no leadership changes, no aggressive front bench is going to change our fortunes in this regard. In the aftermath of this election - Labour will have learnt their lesson regarding co-operation with FG and won't be make the same mistake again

    Time to dream up a new dream and throw the last 80 years in the bin - good and bad -its history now - quite simply its change or die -we have simply got to offer a new vision and real alternative to the electorate of this country or face extinction or at least the endangered species list.
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    Politics.ie Regular White Horse's Avatar
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    Re: Fine Gael 2007 election success a dead cat bounce?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edo
    Good article in the Indo.
    A very poor article. Mentioning Ballysheedy in the first sentence shows the writers republican bias.

    Provo propaganda.

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    Edo
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    Re: Fine Gael 2007 election success a dead cat bounce?

    Quote Originally Posted by White Horse
    Quote Originally Posted by Edo
    Good article in the Indo.
    A very poor article. Mentioning Ballysheedy in the first sentence shows the writers republican bias.

    Provo propaganda.
    Oh - grow up and read the rest of the article!
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    Politics.ie Regular rockofcashel's Avatar
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    see Edo.. that's what you're up against.. from your own side

    At least people like myself, in a completely opposite party realises that we have to make some fundamental changes to remain relevant in Irish society.. but some of your lads are just living in a dream world, where they believe eventually good will out.

    Fairytale stuff.

    On the substantive issue, despite this being a very good election for FG, I believe unless fundamental change happens, then yes, 2007 will have been a dead cat bounce for FG
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

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    Why do the Sunday Independent have to turn to consultant oncologists for political comment?

    Has Joseph O'Malley quit journalism to try his hand at curing cancer?
    "The IRA Army Council have a history of telling the truth. If they say they didn't do it, then I believe them" - Bertie Ahern, speaking after the murder of Det. Garda Jerry McCabe

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    WHEN the Free State soldiers tied their erstwhile Republican colleagues to a landmine at Ballyseedy, in one of the worst atrocities of the Irish Civil War, little did they realise that their action would affect the health care that their descendants would receive 85 years later.
    The fact that the Sunday Independent can print a supposedly serious article that begins with this sentence speaks volumes about the dross they are willing to spout
    "The IRA Army Council have a history of telling the truth. If they say they didn't do it, then I believe them" - Bertie Ahern, speaking after the murder of Det. Garda Jerry McCabe

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    Politics.ie Regular Dunny's Avatar
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    Re: Fine Gael 2007 election success a dead cat bounce?

    Quote Originally Posted by White Horse
    Quote Originally Posted by Edo
    Good article in the Indo.
    A very poor article. Mentioning Ballysheedy in the first sentence shows the writers republican bias.

    Provo propaganda.
    What? Dont you like being reminded of the atrocities committed by the so called founders of Modern Democratic Ireland?

    It has nothing to do with Provos
    For a Liberal Fianna Fáil perspective, take a look at
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

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    Politics.ie Regular Rocky's Avatar
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    The funny thing is FG has already done what he's saying they should do in 1933.

    Where do they find these people?
    "Give us the future, we've had enough of YOUR past, Give us back our country, to live in, to grow in and to love..."

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    Quote Originally Posted by BarryW
    WHEN the Free State soldiers tied their erstwhile Republican colleagues to a landmine at Ballyseedy, in one of the worst atrocities of the Irish Civil War, little did they realise that their action would affect the health care that their descendants would receive 85 years later.
    The fact that the Sunday Independent can print a supposedly serious article that begins with this sentence speaks volumes about the dross they are willing to spout
    This from a man who has remarks relating to another killing from the past as his signature. Ironic!

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    i think all parties need to constantly evolve and change to reflect the requirements of society that they wish to support / lead. However changing the name or disbanding and forming a new party in and off itself is of limited benefit as far as i can see.

    Every party has baggage or skeletons in its closet, should all these parties disband because of same ?

    FF - corruption and almost constant problems with members and tribunals
    FG - the civil war issues
    SF - where to begin
    PD's - MMcD's flip flopping and the electoral disaster


    /C
    Enda Kenny on FF government: “We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fáil policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.”

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