Which independents would vote for Enda as Taoiseach?

[grudgehugger]

Going through the constituencies, I still think the Rainbow will need the help of a few independents to get Enda elected. I see it ending up somewhere in the 78-83 seat range - my predictions have it on 80 at the moment.

I know it's a bit premature as none of these guys have even been elected yet, but was wondering what people think about the likelihood of Enda getting support from the independents/small parties.

My guess on which ind's/others will be elected and chances of them voting for EK are:

Lowry - very likely
Gregory - unlikely
Daly - very unlikely
Higgins - very unlikely
Murphy - possible
Healy - possible
Flynn - possible

Note that the fact that I've only recently returned to Ireland after 8 years makes my guess extremely unreliable - which is where the rest of you come in?

What do you think...

[Defeated Romanticist]

If FG could get Lowry and Flynn to abstain as well as Gregory and Breen they would only need 81. Otherwise Catherine Murphy is your only hope.
FF/PD on the otherhand should be able to rely on Breen and Healy-Rae and abstaintions from Lowry and Flynn to get back in.

If Labour are in a situation where a rainbow would only be viable if it had independent support they may jump ship for FF.

[vid]

lowrey will vote for enda no doubt so too jerry cowley in mayo if he survives the elections. Cant imagine flynn voting for him(she is being elected by ff voters) but she might abstain

[baldur0300]

The very best that FG can hope out of Bev is that she abstains but I would doubt even that.

[eurocrat]

The BMW Independents: Paddy McHugh, James Breen, Pauge Connolly, Gerry Crowley all would be prepared to vote for the person who would deliver the best deal for their constituency, be that Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

If FG get 28+% - that's 55ish seats
If Lab get 13+% - they should gain a few - 22

That's 77

Throw in the Greens on 6-8 and you have a majority

No need for Indos

[marcecie]

The very best that FG can hope out of Bev is that she abstains but I would doubt even that.

Jerry Cowley said he will support Enda but Bev will not give a straight answer she will only commit to "looking after the best interest of Mayo" whatever that means.

[grudgehugger]

Hank, I've read the polls too but when I go through all the constituencies it's not easy to find where all the seats will come from.

That may sound a bit like Micheal Martin on Q&A blathering on about it being 43 constituencies and all that.... but I do think that if you look through them all, it'll take a fair few surprises for FG to get over 55 - I see them coming in somewhere like 51-53, although I'd be delighted to be wrong about that

[Insider2007]

If FG could get Lowry and Flynn to abstain as well as Gregory and Breen they would only need 81. Otherwise Catherine Murphy is your only hope.
FF/PD on the otherhand should be able to rely on Breen and Healy-Rae and abstaintions from Lowry and Flynn to get back in.

If Labour are in a situation where a rainbow would only be viable if it had independent support they may jump ship for FF.

Is this the latest pathetic attempt by PDs to try to claim that the Alliance for Change is not on target to win? DR and FT have spun so much they must by now be dizzy!

[locke]

I'd guess the Socialists could be persuaded to abstain in the Taoiseach vote. Flynn would probably abstain rather than be seen as the woman who prevented a Taoiseach from Mayo. If there was a quick election, she'd suffer for that. Gregory could be bought off with enough money for his constituency.

Lowry and Murphy would probably back Enda if offered the right package.

I see the words 'could' and 'probably' a lot in what I wrote ;-)