Enda Kenny now the favourite to be our next Taoiseach

[The Trinity Politick]

[quote=Paddylekker]

On betfairs website they have Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny joint favorites at 2.16

Yeah, but only one person was backed today and that was bertie.

How can you tell Bertie was the only one backed?

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.[/quote:jn8tb13p]

Ugh......*shudder* i need a good scrub now

[floatingvote]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

[floatingvote]

Ugh......*shudder* i need a good scrub now

Night all, pleasant dreams trinity!!!

[Paddylekker]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

I watch all betting markets very closely. It's not that significant a move in my opinion. There's still not a lot of money being traded in this market. That Bertie was outside Enda to start with was unrealistic anyway.

[The Trinity Politick]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

I watch all betting markets very closely. It's not that significant a move in my opinion. There's still not a lot of money being traded in this market. That Bertie was outside Enda to start with was unrealistic anyway.

In my opinion, which is unbiased.......ahem.........small wagers from here and there are being placed on Enda, while every few days, some nutcase comes in and throws 10,000 on Bertie.

Now im not saying that FF has some rich friends..........

[Paddylekker]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

I watch all betting markets very closely. It's not that significant a move in my opinion. There's still not a lot of money being traded in this market. That Bertie was outside Enda to start with was unrealistic anyway.

In my opinion, which is unbiased.......ahem.........small wagers from here and there are being placed on Enda, while every few days, some nutcase comes in and throws 10,000 on Bertie.

Now im not saying that FF has some rich friends..........

Nobody, unless the market is absolutely tiny, bets on markets to lower odds.

[The Analyser]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

I watch all betting markets very closely. It's not that significant a move in my opinion. There's still not a lot of money being traded in this market. That Bertie was outside Enda to start with was unrealistic anyway.

In my opinion, which is unbiased.......ahem.........small wagers from here and there are being placed on Enda, while every few days, some nutcase comes in and throws 10,000 on Bertie.

Now im not saying that FF has some rich friends..........

Nobody, unless the market is absolutely tiny, bets on markets to lower odds.

Actually, C, it is done all the time in politics. The perception that someone is thought of as more likely to win is crucial to their appeal. So parties and supporters place money all the time to influence that perception.

[Paddylekker]

Yes, but they won't bet in a big market. They'll bet in a small market. Shifting odds in a big market costs an awful lot of money.

[skeptical]

From reading most of these comment and on other threads, there seems to be alot of bookmakers on here.

All bookmakers go on is polls and at the end of the day, they're not always accurate. There seems to be too many bookies (Powers, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Boyles and Betfair) on here advertsing they're own prices.

And when it comes down to it they wouldnt lay you a sausage ! I recently tried to placea 200 euro bet in both Ladbrokes and Powers ....... they both offered me 25 euro ....... I'm sure I wouldnt have had much luck elsewhere !

Don't believe the hype of these firms - they're odds dont mean a damn !

[Anorakphobia]

[quote=The Analyser]

You can see what is matched. But it is an exchange. There were more people laying Bertie today as well.

Yes and no, that money was put up on saturday, doubtless by people wishing to trade their position - i have been watching the market closely, so imo, this move is significant, at least in that someone out there has the confidence to throw a few k on bertie again, equally, it may be that people feel that from a trading perspective he will shorten again tomorrow after stormont - tbh, i wish i'd thought of it myself!!

I watch all betting markets very closely. It's not that significant a move in my opinion. There's still not a lot of money being traded in this market. That Bertie was outside Enda to start with was unrealistic anyway.

In my opinion, which is unbiased.......ahem.........small wagers from here and there are being placed on Enda, while every few days, some nutcase comes in and throws 10,000 on Bertie.

Now im not saying that FF has some rich friends..........

Nobody, unless the market is absolutely tiny, bets on markets to lower odds.

Actually, C, it is done all the time in politics. The perception that someone is thought of as more likely to win is crucial to their appeal. So parties and supporters place money all the time to influence that perception.[/quote:2qyfd6cx]

I would concur.
In particular I would be deeply suspicious of PP in this respect.
They have never had Bertie underdog even when he was trading at 6/4 on Betfair. I find this puzzling but could well be that Soldiers are flinging a few 100 here and there on Bertie (and as another poster commented, that's all PP will accept) to keep him in the public consciousness as the front runner.
Al Gore's goose was well and truly cooked once Fox and their pals called prematurely the election for Bush, the perception clearly planted in millions of dumbos that that was the end of it.