Election Footing - Time to get serious?

[Parnell]

Bertie has us all convinced that he's going to let this government run to the end of its term - just like the last time - and everyone's gearing up for an election in 2007. But is that really the case? He's asking his back benchers to raise their profile and get out around their constituencies this summer. Does he plan to call a snap election much earlier?

Reasons why he would call a snap election:

FG/Lab gaining momentum and credibility.

The intent to put a voting pact together has clearly been agreed, but on the ground nothing has been done to formalise it. Some vote winning proposals on Child care, taxation, and Anti-social behaviour have been put together, but they're not being communicated widely to the electorate. It may well be in FF's interest to cut and run to the country earlier before FG/Lab get their act together and start making some serious inroads with voters.

New candidates not in place

This particularly affects FG. FF have most of their candidates in place (sitting TD's) and as a consequence can cope with a snap election quite easily. FG, on the other hand, haven't got prospective candidates in place, yet alone selected, in most of the constituencies where they would hope to make relatively easy gains. Yes alot of good potential candidates came through in the local elections, and there have been a couple of high profile wins, but none of them is out on the ground trying to raise their profile now. FF might feel under pressure, but maybe it's easier to take on an organisation that is nowhere near ready than risk waiting.

Flagship Infrastructure Projects

Quite a few flagship projects, particularly roads, are due to be completed early next year, and it's pretty evident that the contractors are all puling the stops out to finish ahead of schedule. Why? Because FF want them to, so that they can generate good PR for themselves, and try and create a feel good factor. They might be taking a few hits now, but if people feel better about their commute etc, they forget the bad stuff, fast which leads me on to.....

The Budget

Here we go again - The coffers are bulging (never mind that they're p***ing money away extravagantly with f*** all return for joe public) again, and don't we all know it. Expect a giveaway budget this Christmas, with nice increases in take home pay hitting the back account in January 2006. Maybe they'll row back a bit on individualisation or give tax credits for child care to show what caring people they are. either way they'll let the electorate feel a bit better off, which leads me on to........

SSIA's

Mc Creevy's masterstroke introduced in 2001. The first bountiful cheques start rolling into bank accounts in May 2006 - Are we looking at a summer election. Expect a boost in consumer spending, and more people feeling good again. again why would FF wait until mid 2007?

Reasons why he wouldn't call a snap election

Too arrogant to bother

They don't believe the opposition have a chance of chucking them out so why bother going to the country early!

Receiving too many hits - Needs to fix them

They're in trouble on Health - no quick fixes here, and they may want to ride it out as long as possible in the hope that they can patch things up. Mind you at the rate problems are being highlighted the problem is probably too big for them to fix.

Law and Order - They're floundering over criminal behaviour (operation anvil), anti-social behaviour (ASBO's to please well heeled voters), and in the dock over the findings of the Morris tribunal. they need to move Mc Dowell's focus away from Cafe Bars to Squad Cars and that's going to take them quite a bit of time.

Education - More chaos - A raft of promised school builds deferred yet again by Mary Hanafin, leading to yet more overcrowded classrooms and sub-standard accommodation. Again they need time to get their act together.

There are lots of other fires they want to put out such as school bussing, Aer-lingus, etc.

Conclusion?

Even if there isn't an early election, wouldn't it make sense for FG:

To work on it's programme now, and start convincing people early so that they're more likely to swing our direction at an election; and

Put candidates in place early in the seats and constituency where they need to make gains.

Well what do you think?

[Minister3]

Way off the mark with all theories postulated above its just were taking a different approach this time just as we did in 97&02.When you didn't know what hit you.

[aodh_rua]

Are Fianna Fail too broke to call a snap election? That might be another rerason to delay going to the country for another year at least.

[Ernie]

Parnell is spot-on to an xtent. the election will be in April/May 2006. FF will not allow the media to set the agenda with a series of @Primetime@ specials in the form of opinion polls in every constituency predicting how the prople will vote. Ff will also go before their backs are firmly to the wall in May 2007. Election fever if allowed to build up over the Autumn/Winter of 2006 will lead to huge discontent, teachers, nurses and every dog and divil seeking justice fo their own cause. Eletoral blackmasil of this type could seriously ruin FF/PD. So Berite is right to tell his troops to start knocking. 48 weeks left to poling day !. :wink:

[aodh_rua]

Parnell is spot-on to an xtent. the election will be in April/May 2006. FF will not allow the media to set the agenda with a series of @Primetime@ specials in the form of opinion polls in every constituency predicting how the prople will vote. Ff will also go before their backs are firmly to the wall in May 2007. Election fever if allowed to build up over the Autumn/Winter of 2006 will lead to huge discontent, teachers, nurses and every dog and divil seeking justice fo their own cause. Eletoral blackmasil of this type could seriously ruin FF/PD. So Berite is right to tell his troops to start knocking. 48 weeks left to poling day !. :wink:

I can see sometime in 2006 being the date alright - although I'd say you could stretch April\May into late summer. That'll mean a whole summer of features on how to spend your SSIA, and as most people won't cash in until Christmas or after that'll get people's expectations up.

[Jim84]

Don't think FF has ever willing called a winter election; they just don't play well on TV. Thou if I were Bertie, wouldn't fear Kenny. Rabbitte maybe!

The electorate mightn't like the fact there is an early General Election, and there has to be a reason for the government to fall, otherwise FF are just going to look opportunistic.

Election the same time as the Referendum, Election of the summer 2006 (clash with world cup) or spring 2007 (prevent constitutional challenge) seems to be Bertie options.

[borderlinegenius]

The electorate mightn't like the fact there is an early General Election, and there has to be a reason for the government to fall

That can be arranged.

[Parnell]

I think i'd be inclined to go along with the summer 2006 option. Clash with the World Cup could be an issue - So July?

As for excuses to let the government fall - I'd say FF could think of plenty of reasons to ditch the PD's, but what's the point when the PD ministers are taking most of the flak, and Rabbitte's set his face against them.

[Jim84]

I think i'd be inclined to go along with the summer 2006 option. Clash with the World Cup could be an issue - So July?

Ireland in the World Cup, public mood would be at an high. Less press coverage about the election, RTE might even ask Bertie to be a panelist again.

[Ernie]

Clash with the World Cup is a red herring. There's no world cup in March, April or May 2006. Get it over and done with by early June. Ff conventions wil take place over the Autumn. Talk of PDs pulling the plug is crazy. They will be decimated in any event!