Constituencies where Fine Gael will win 3 seats

[davehiggz]

Ok, so Mayo is already in the bag. It was mentioned in a newspaper recently that 4 seats may be fought for. I doubt it, but it's worth thinking about.

Can 3 seats be won in....

Carlow Kilkenny?
Cavan Monaghan?
Cork South Central?
Dublin South?
Galway West?
Laois-Offaly?
Louth?
Wexford?
Wicklow?

[odie1kanobe]

None simple as that.

[arcadeparade]

Why is Connacht and especially Mayo such FG country?

[neiphin]

Why is Connacht and especially Mayo such FG country?

enda kenny is from castlebar
michael ring is a great man for the funerals
john o mahony legend

ff have
bev the tax expert
and mr bean from ballina

[wombat]

The list is probably as long as the current thread

[arcadeparade]

Are there any historical reasons? Or are FF just ********************e past the shannon?

[MookieBaylock]

Ok, so Mayo is already in the bag. It was mentioned in a newspaper recently that 4 seats may be fought for. I doubt it, but it's worth thinking about.

Can 3 seats be won in....

Carlow Kilkenny?
Cavan Monaghan?
Cork South Central?
Dublin South?
Galway West?
Laois-Offaly?
Louth?
Wexford?
Wicklow?

Carlow-Kilkenny would be very possible as the Carlow FG candidate (most likely ex Senator Fergal Browne although it could be someone else) will almost certainly win.

And JP Phelan could take out Bobby Aylward given the poll figures.

On top of the national figures, Carlow-Kilkenny has been one of the worst, if not the worst, affected area by the recession. Carlow has lost Celtic Linen, Irish Sugar, Braun and Lapple and Kilkenny has lost Smithwicks in recent years.

Also, Phil Hogan would be minister material so that will play on minds.

Laois-Offaly would be impossible as Cowen is Taoiseach, it's possible however that Labour or even the Shinners could take soft FF support there and bag a seat.

I would say Dublin South and Wexford are likely targets too.

[MookieBaylock]

Are there any historical reasons? Or are FF just ********************e past the shannon?

No, not really. Mayo has always been 50-50 but the Kenny leadership factor pushed FG over the line.

Galway is mainly a Fianna Fail county. The reason FG are strong in Leitrim and Roscommon is proximity to the border and a hatred of SF/IRA around there from some people. That's why they do well in Cavan/Monaghan too.

[Drico]

Dublin South is a possibility.

I would have said almost definate if Lee was still on the ticket but its still quite a possibility.

Consider the last election:
2 FF
2 FG
1 GP

Bye-Election was a FG victory with both FF and Labour around the 20% mark.

Ryan's seat is almost surely gone as Green vote is negligible. Couldn't even get a councillor elected in the constituency. FF will definatley have one seat but could easily lose the second. They will not be fielding any sitting TD on the ballot.

Alex White will most likely pick up one of the seats but what are the possibilities for the other?

There is no alternative anymore to the three big parties and Labour are nowhere near the strength in the constiuency to even consider the possibility of a second seat. The 5th seat has to be either a 3rd for FG or a 2nd for FF and will be a tough fight.

[neiphin]

That's why they do well in Cavan/Monaghan too.

isnt there a large protestant population in monaghan ?

Dublin South is a possibility.
The 5th seat has to be either a 3rd for FG or a 2nd for FF and will be a tough fight.

i cant see ff getting any transfers , they would need what nearly 35% to get 2 seats