Constituencies where Fine Gael will win 3 seats

[Baron von Biffo]

Laois-Offaly would be impossible as Cowen is Taoiseach, it's possible however that Labour or even the Shinners could take soft FF support there and bag a seat.

If Lab take a seat here it will most likely be the delectable Olwyn who loses out. The boundary commission chopped off a large chunk of her hinterland.

Brian Stanley has done a creditable job in carving out a council seat for himself but it's personal rather than SF so no support where he's not personally known.

BTW, there are strong rumours that Stanley is less than fully gruntled with some of the 'stars' in the SF leadership and that he feels under supported because he's not of the Armani set.

[Panopticon]

If Lab take a seat here it will most likely be the delectable Olwyn who loses out. The boundary commission chopped off a large chunk of her hinterland.

This is absolutely right; of all the constituencies in the country, this is going to be the one that moves least away from Fianna Fáil.

[MookieBaylock]

This is absolutely right; of all the constituencies in the country, this is going to be the one that moves least away from Fianna Fáil.

Although, that said, both counties are huge unemployment black-spots and if there is a feeling Cowan is doing nothing for his own, they could lose one of their three.

[Tomas Mor]

They have historically always had two in Carlow-Kilkenny so why would it be cataclysmic?

In the 90's it was Phil Hogan/John Browne and in the 70's/80's it was Crotty and Des Governey.

You make my point, only 1 for a long time even with JP Phelan in the Senate last time, and cuckoo Hogan did not have a big vote either, so 2 would be huge jump

[Nugget]

ie Which constituencies have the most ignorant and backward peasants? Mayo certainly is in the bag there!

[The_Big_Fellow]

ie Which constituencies have the most ignorant and backward peasants? Mayo certainly is in the bag there!

The above is why mothers should not smoke crack while pregnant.

[Nugget]

The above is why mothers should not smoke crack while pregnant.

I have no doubt that Fine Gael voters are the most likely to be illiterate peasants. Followed closely by Fianna Fail of course.

[Tomas Mor]

I have no doubt that Fine Gael voters are the most likely to be illiterate peasants. Followed closely by Fianna Fail of course.

Sure even a blind person can lead FF and they will follow where ever he goes, so also did Bert on the economy , Dev did it for years

[Decko]

FG are, at present, a shoe in to gain an additional seat in Galway West, at the expense of Fahy or Grealish. They are seriously talking, well from what I heard Kenny told them, about running three candidates and with proper vote management it is not impossible at all that they could take both the Fahey and the Grealish seat and retain their own. It is unclear if McCormack will run again, but there is talk of splitting the constituency in three for electoral purposes. Healy Eames would target the eastern Grealish seat with AN Other candidate the Fahey one on the western side of the electoral district.

It's not impossible at all to win three there if they do it properly.

no chance

even in the days of Garret FG at best got just about 30% in Galway West and only once won 2 seats (1982 nov) when donnellan and coogan split the vote well and held off Michael D

since then its been as low as 15 % and at best low 20's

so 2 is a challenge -- if FG got 3 then FG would be on for 90 overall which aint going to happen

Will FG get 2 ?

Well possibly, but by no means certain

the potetial candidates are extremely weak (P mcC who didnt want to run the last time) Healy eames and some punter from Conamara.

So,its ripe for a parachute (but who) or perhaps they should look at putting that Naughton girl who surprised us all by winning in Salthill on the ticket instead of Healy Eames.

Galway West hasnt changed since 87 - must be the most predictable - 2ff 1 fg then 1 pd 1 lab -- a fair chance it will still remain like this with Grealish holding on (his vote is personal and ex Pders will back him) - I dont see FF loosing a seat so its either Grealish or FG for last seat

[Mac Attack]

Cavan Monaghan will be very interesting in the next election. In 2007, it was a 4 seater because Rory O Hanlon was ceann comhairle. Brendan Smyth (ff) topped the poll, followed by O Caolain(sf) followed by Seymour Crawford (fg) followed by Margaret Conlon (ff). If it had been a normal five seater Joe O Reilly (fg) would have got in ahead of Conlon as her base is in O Hanlons area. In 2012, or next week, whatever you care to believe, there are three certainties. O Caolain will hold the SF seat. Crawford will hold the FG seat. Smyth will get a hammering but I can't see a cabinet minister not getting re-elected. Presently and remarkably four of the five sitting TDs come from monaghan which is the smaller of the two counties. Smyth is the only Cavan TD. I can't see O Hanlon running again and Conlon is despised in Monaghan following the closure of the hospital, the army barracks and a number of small factories and businesses. FF could lose both seats with one seat guaranteed to go to Fine Gael. That would leave 2FG 1SF 1FF. If the tide does go out for FF in spectacular fashion and on what is likely to be a red letter day for fine gael, they could take a third seat if the right candidate is in place...but they will need sf transfers. Crawford is well respected in monaghan and even in fg's darkest hour in 2002 he managed to hang on, himself and O Caolain have worked closely together on the hospital issue so sinn fein transfers are not as outlandish as first they may seem, particularly if you consider fianna fail are toxic in terms of what they have to offer. Most likely it will be 2FG 2FF and 1SF but I wouldn't rule out a third FG seat at the expense of FF if the right candidate was in place. P.S. Labour and Greens are non existant in Cavan-Monaghan.