Constituencies where Fine Gael will win 3 seats

[Michael Moloney]

Why is Connacht and especially Mayo such FG country?

Might the Flynnstones have taken FF in Mayo into the dark ages.

[davehiggz]

Just to correct about Louth.

Louth is made a 5 seater next Dáil by giving it the area of Co. Meath that touches the sea.

However Seamus Kirk is the CC so it is back to 4 seats again. 2 FG seats here. Forget about three unless you either see them lose their Sinn Féin TD or the Minister for Justice!

[adamirer]

Mayo and Dublin South, thats about it...

[corelli]

FG are, at present, a shoe in to gain an additional seat in Galway West, at the expense of Fahy or Grealish. They are seriously talking, well from what I heard Kenny told them, about running three candidates and with proper vote management it is not impossible at all that they could take both the Fahey and the Grealish seat and retain their own. It is unclear if McCormack will run again, but there is talk of splitting the constituency in three for electoral purposes. Healy Eames would target the eastern Grealish seat with AN Other candidate the Fahey one on the western side of the electoral district.

It's not impossible at all to win three there if they do it properly.

[Edo]

Carlow-Kilkenny would be very possible as the Carlow FG candidate (most likely ex Senator Fergal Browne although it could be someone else) will almost certainly win.

And JP Phelan could take out Bobby Aylward given the poll figures.

On top of the national figures, Carlow-Kilkenny has been one of the worst, if not the worst, affected area by the recession. Carlow has lost Celtic Linen, Irish Sugar, Braun and Lapple and Kilkenny has lost Smithwicks in recent years.

Also, Phil Hogan would be minister material so that will play on minds.

Laois-Offaly would be impossible as Cowen is Taoiseach, it's possible however that Labour or even the Shinners could take soft FF support there and bag a seat.

I would say Dublin South and Wexford are likely targets too.

Can only comment on Carlow/Kilkenny

3 is very doable.

of the current line up

McGuinness will keep his seat - purely due to the fact that Kilkenny city is FF heartland - they got over 40% there in the locals - he is the local boy ,has a big crew on the ground and he is playing the quasi-independent FFer for all he is worth - should get back in.

Hogan is a definite to return

Aylward could be in trouble if JP gets the finger out -

Nolan - always the 3rd FFer - always the one who loses out when FF's vote is down - FF are in meltdown in Carlow - he wont be doing much at the next election - retirement beckons.

White - while she might get a temporary bounce from her forthcoming "ministerial appointment" - her goose is cooked - she scraped in the last time on FG/Lab transfers - they wont be coming her way this time around -in her home area of Borris - she ran a very personal campaign to keep the green council seat (the only one in the constituency) and was royally blown out of the water - Alan Price - despite being a decent personable bloke - would have been better off telling Mary to feck off on one of her crusades for the duration, got barely 300 votes and was eliminated early on - Greens to lose.

So I reckon Nolan and White are gonners and Aylward could be in for a rough ride too - so there are 2 ,if not, 3 seats going to be in play here.

If FG seriously get the finger out ( and I will have a major hand in holding the whip behind this effort) - 3 seats are definitely a real and present possibility - select a good Carlow candidate and get the whole FG county organisation behind them ( something that hasn't happened for 3 elections now - but major changes and improvements have been made and are ongoing) and given the results in the local where we took 10 out of 21 seats, over 45% of the total vote and should have had 12 - a carlow FG Td is a runner. John Paul has to capitalise on his Euro run and get stuck into South Kilkenny and the crumbling Aylward empire.

If Labour, as my little red birds tell me, seem to be determined to run 2 and both prospective candidates are rural based - well happy days as I can only see them splitting the labour vote between them and getting eliminated early on and that should benefit FG.

We'll see tho -

[dotski_w_]

If Labour, as my little red birds tell me, seem to be determined to run 2 and both prospective candidates are rural based - well happy days as I can only see them splitting the labour vote between them and getting eliminated early on and that should benefit FG.

We'll see tho -

Indeed. In the last GE they got 0.7% below their national vote, which would suggest (depending on the poll you believe) they are likely to get between 16-21%, with uniform swing - and there's 10-11% GP/SF vote which, even with a drop in the GP vote, will be at least 7% transfer fodder, and rich pickings for LP.

Don't believe in the extrapolation of national polls? OK, base it on the locals then. LP got 18.3%, with 3% SF and 2.5% GP (also 11% Indos who you;d expect LP to get some transfers from). Given most agre that the LP vote nationally on the day was a poor one (given their polling figures) it seems hard to argue that this was exceptional, rather than normal.

LP not getting a single seat here is possible, but only in the sense that FG could fail to get a second. Whatever way you look at it, they're favourites to get at least a quota on the first count, and will be in line to get transfers.

[Edo]

Fair enough Dots - I take your point

But Labour have been shooting themselves in the foot even more spectacularly than FG in this constituency for ages now - there is a heck of lot of rebuilding work on a consituency basis for Labour to do here and the locals were disappointing for them - particularly in that a lot of young ones who ran very high profile campaigns in prime urban areas failed to get elected - Seamus Pattison left the Labour party in some mess - tho its omerta to say so - Dont read too much into the Green vote going to Labour - its only 3000 odd votes and much of it came from rural county carlow and was based on the "Carlow" Td idea above any ideology - FG were the main beneficiaries of the Green councillor Alan Price (Mary White) collapse in the locals in 2009- Labour vote was actually down on 2004.

Still think they should run one candidate - if they do get a national swing - it would benefit them and make it 2 FG 2FF and 1 lab/ 3FG 1 FF 1 Lab - running 2 ,IMHO, is quite dangerous for them.

[dotski_w_]

Fair enough Dots - I take your point

sound, in fairness you're one of the more open minded posters here.

the locals were disappointing for them

I agree wholeheartedly - that's why i think the fact they were still over a quota means they are safe for a seat. If they had their act in order, they'd have a decent chance of a second seat given the national swing, but as you say, C-K is somewhere they are likely to under-perform on current form. But as June showed, even massive under-performance should see them get a seat.

Out of interest, who are you hearing as the Kilkenny candidate for LP (or is it that firmed up yet?)

[Edo]

Out of interest, who are you hearing as the Kilkenny candidate for LP (or is it that firmed up yet?)

Well Im hearing a gentleman from Castlecomer and a lady from Graignuemanagh being murmured about quite a lot in certain circles - but don't quote me on that

[MookieBaylock]

isnt there a large protestant population in monaghan ?



i cant see ff getting any transfers , they would need what nearly 35% to get 2 seats

There is but that is not a huge factor. Protestant people are as likely to vote FF, Green or Labour nowadays. There is a large protestant population in Tipperary and Laois Offaly too and FG don't benefit there.

As far as I know there are four Protestants in the Dail currently.

Trevor Sargeant (Dublin - Greens
Mary White (Carlow) - Greens
Martin Mansergh (Tipperary) - Fianna Fail
Seymour Crawford (Monaghan) - Fine Gael

So, no, huge amount of FG prod's there.

Correct me if I am wrong on those four.