Constituencies where Fine Gael will win 3 seats

[Tomas Mor]

Dont be too sure about Mayo, Ring scoops up votes outside his area,and he sends letters into every area on election dasy saying poor me. 3 seats is limit here, Galway East and Clare did well last time to take 2 out of 4, and may hold on, but dont be sure if Independents enter fray. Galway West no good for FG with McCormack the cuckoo, only hope is Healy Eames.Sligo Leitrim should be ok if FG get right people to run, Perry is no great shakes and poor speaker. Roscommon may be ok if Leitrim do not opt for one of their own as they have none at present.

[Drico]

i cant see ff getting any transfers , they would need what nearly 35% to get 2 seats

Without any transfers at all, probably but they will transfer reasonably well in Dublin South (it may not make a huge amount of sense but they almost certainly will).

The thing is that there are 5 seats up for grabs and only 3 parties with any hopes of a seat. Two of the parties are incedibly weak in the constituency. FG should be in the running for the three but when you consider that the only alternative to a 2nd FF seat is a 3rd FG, you have to say that FF have a very good chance of retaining two. Could go either way.

[Noggin]

Carlow Kilkenny?

Hard to see FF down to one, but could happen on a disastrous day for FF, Labour are bound to take a seat

Cavan Monaghan?

Very unlikely

Cork South Central?

Again hard to see FF down to one

Dublin South?

Less Likely now with Lee gone which may benefit Ryan

Galway West?

Possible more likely to remain as is or Independent gain from FF

Laois-Offaly?

No Chance

Louth?

3/4? No Way, FF will take at least 1 as will SF

Wexford?

Last seat could be between FF and FG on a very good day for the Blueshirts

Wicklow?

Unlikely especially if Behan runs again

[Tomas Mor]

In Carlow/Kilkenny there are four government Tds,and only 1 opposition- cuckoo Phil Hogan, some record for frontbench spokesman and one of the so called leading lights in his party, continuously boosted by Ivan |Yates on Newstalk. So two for FG would be a cataclysmic change, or it may be just 1 each for FG and Labour.

[mmrebel]

Laois-Offaly would be impossible as Cowen is Taoiseach, it's possible however that Labour or even the Shinners could take soft FF support there and bag a seat.

Not a chance of Labour taking that seat they have one CC in Laois and he is how shall i put........ Dubious character at the extreme end , It will be as it stands in Laois/Offaly with John Moloney been ran close by SF or depending on who FG run.

[Panopticon]

Honestly? Mayo, maybe Dublin South, maybe Wexford. They will pick up lots where they have 0 or 1 seats, though.

Some examples from above: Carlow-Kilkenny has 1 seat at the moment and is likely to be good for Labour even as Green/FF collapse. Cavan-Monaghan does not have votes for 3 Fine Gael, unless you think you are getting SF transfers. Cork SC Fine Gael are starting out from too low a base. Maybe Dublin South, but it's tight because one seat is surely due to Labour before we even begin looking at FG's position. Galway West is, again, way too low a base to gain two seats (20% in 2007). Laois-Offaly will see very careful vote management by Cowen to hold onto 3 seats. Louth is a cert for 2 seats thanks to the new 5-seater, but a challenge for 3. Wexford is again an outside possibility. Wicklow was a lucky 2-seat win last time; Fine Gael has 23% of the vote and even a 7-10% surge will just be consolidating this.

[kerrynorth]

Cavan Monaghan is only 4 seats next time.

[eoin smith]

Carlow-Kilkenny would be very possible as the Carlow FG candidate (most likely ex Senator Fergal Browne although it could be someone else) will almost certainly win.

And JP Phelan could take out Bobby Aylward given the poll figures.

On top of the national figures, Carlow-Kilkenny has been one of the worst, if not the worst, affected area by the recession. Carlow has lost Celtic Linen, Irish Sugar, Braun and Lapple and Kilkenny has lost Smithwicks in recent years.

Also, Phil Hogan would be minister material so that will play on minds.

Laois-Offaly would be impossible as Cowen is Taoiseach, it's possible however that Labour or even the Shinners could take soft FF support there and bag a seat.

I would say Dublin South and Wexford are likely targets too.

Wexford, Brendan Howlin is a shoo in so no Fine Gael gain at his expense. And there would have to be a near total melt down of the Fianna Fáil vote for them to loose a seat. Maybe this will happen, we can only hope, but I somehow doubt it.

[Panopticon]

Cavan Monaghan is only 4 seats next time.

That wasn't in the 2007 report.

[kerrynorth]

That wasn't in the 2007 report.

Sorry. Your correct. I thought Louth got their extra seat from C/M.