Cllr Barry O'Neill selected for DSW by-election

[kerrynorth]

At tonight's convention. Poll topper in the locals. ElectionsIreland.org: 2009 Local - Donegal First Preference Votes

[factual]

Do you think he will be able to hold off SF?

[SFInbhear]

Do you think he will be able to hold off SF?

O'Neill's biggest challenge will be attempting to eat into Coughlan's vote while holding as much as McGinley's 2007 vote as he can. O'Neill hails from Ballyshannon which is a large town but also a ridiculously staunch Fianna Fail area as also is Bundoran. Also it can be argued that most of McGinleys 2007 vote was personal. It wasnt a big vote considering he was the sole Fine Gael candidate. O'Neill in order to hold of both Doherty and O'Domhnaill will need to gain substantial transfers from the other candidates. The fact that two of them are in his EA could be an advantage to him.

[kerrynorth]

Who was the other Cllr he defeated? I did not catch his name.

[Cashel Hill]

O'Neill's biggest challenge will be attempting to eat into Coughlan's vote while holding as much as McGinley's 2007 vote as he can. O'Neill hails from Ballyshannon which is a large town but also a ridiculously staunch Fianna Fail area as also is Bundoran. Also it can be argued that most of McGinleys 2007 vote was personal. It wasnt a big vote considering he was the sole Fine Gael candidate. O'Neill in order to hold of both Doherty and O'Domhnaill will need to gain substantial transfers from the other candidates. The fact that two of them are in his EA could be an advantage to him.

I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.

KN - Martin Harley from Ballybofey was the defeated nominee.

[old westie]

I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.

KN - Martin Harley from Ballybofey was the defeated nominee.

Cant agree re Ballyshannon being a very staunch Ff town does not FG control the local town council, yes bundoran is Mc Eniff town but its only small and he just made it into county council last year.
This is a great oppertunity for FG and Labour to do a dummy run for general election re vote transfer between them. Labour's Mc Brearty and FG's O Neill are at opposite end s of constituency and they should do a good general sweep of all those dont know voters along with their own votes and then who ever is strongest with the others transfers should be almost home.
This election is going to be won on TRANSFERS and this is the major weakness of FF and SF.

[Keith-M]

I suspect this could come down to how FF transfers go, if they fall towards SF, the seat is theirsThere's a rebellious streakl about Donegal (see Lisbon II) that could a rejection not only of FFF but FG as well.

[adamirer]

I can't help the nagging feeling that FF will hold the seat. Donegal, going into 2007 had 5 from 6 seats with FF's (admittedly due to Blaney rejoining) and even in 2007 they had over 50% of 1st prefs - ie: more than the rest combined. Even a 40% drop in 1st prefs would have them reasonably confident of the seat and several thousand ahead of what SF and FG had last time out and Doherty needs to soak up a lot of FF votes...

FG should remain much stronger than Labour, but since they can't expect too much of the FF vote they'll be counting on
a) a strong SF vote -> to bring the FF vote down and FF won't transfer to FG...
b) Labour to be eliminated before SF...

If SF go out before Labour/McBrearty, I'd say Pearse Doherty's career will be in ruins and FF will hold the seat.

[Duth Ealla]

I suspect this could come down to how FF transfers go, if they fall towards SF, the seat is theirsThere's a rebellious streakl about Donegal (see Lisbon II) that could a rejection not only of FFF but FG as well.

And yet considering the dire economic situation of that county and their persistent voting in of Fianna Fail candidates there also seems to be a very conformist streak.

[SFInbhear]

I didn't think it was so, thought it was more of an relatively strong FG area in the midst of a general FF stronghold, such as Bundoran and Donegal town. Certainly was when Jim White was going on.

I would have always seen Ballyshannon as a strong FF town, as is Donegal Town and Bundoran. Coughlan always gets strong backing in Ballyshannon but that maybe because of her family connections there. But the Locals would point to a swing towards FG which means selecting O'Neill may be also be better in the long term. He also polled strongly in Bundoran as McEniff struggled.
If O' Neill can continue to get strong backing from Ballyshannon and Bundoran it may put Calamity in trouble at the next GE and then all our Christmas's may come at once!