Who will the next leader of Fine Gael be?

[cyberianpan]

It is quite clear that Enda Kenny is in trouble see thread :
http://www.politics.ie/fine-gael/123...alks-indo.html
and specifically this story:
Kenny in spotlight | The Post

‘‘Our party leader has a major credibility issue - and it’s getting worse," one Fine Gael TD told this newspaper. ‘‘Every member of the parliamentary party knows it, but there’s an enormous amount of denial in Fine Gael, and there has been for some time."

So it looks like if the next few opinion polls are bad - that Kenny will come under serious pressure. That means now is the time to start speculating on the replacement.

Here's the betting odds from Paddy Power
Next Fine Gael Leader - Next Fine Gael Leader Betting Odds from Paddy Power

Richard Bruton			4/6
Brian Hayes			6/1
Denis Naughton			8/1
Leo Varadkar			10/1
Simon Coveney			10/1
Olwyn Enright			14/1
Fergus O'Dowd			14/1
Phil Hogan			16/1
George Lee			16/1
Damien English			18/1
James O'Reilly			18/1
John Deasy			22/1
John Perry			25/1
Jimmy Deenihan			33/1
Alan Shatter			33/1
Lucinda Creighton		33/1
Michael McDowell		33/1

I'm not sure about Richard Bruton's resilience/energy ... Hayes often doesn't come across so well. Varadkar & Lee have little experience - but maybe that's what's needed ?

cYp

[Rocky]

And that TD was probably John Deasy. It isn't going to happen, unless he gets hit by a bus or something along those lines Enda Kenny is going to lead Fine Gael into the next general election.

The Sunday Times says it contacted 20 FG TDs and only one showed any doubt over Enda Kenny and I have little doubt that one was John Deasy, as they would have been stupid not to ring him.

All parties go up and down in the polls. It's all about the thread and the thread for Fine Gael is still up and at the very worse stable.

[rockofcashel]

It is a tough question. On a personal and political level, I feel some sympathy for Enda Kenny. I genuinely feel he is an honest and decent hard working politician, who is FG to the core, and one of very few people who would have had the energy and drive to frankly drag FG off the floor and turn them back into a genuine political force after the hammering they got in 2002.

He is also from accounts of people who have met him personally on canvasses (not FG people by any means) very impressive.


He is also a good "Chairman", an organiser and director rather than a leader. But, I also think he is lucky in that FG do have a range of good spokespeople in "important" Opposition positions like Bruton and James Reilly in Health (being a doctor himself, he can always invoke empathy in Health Matters, and lets be honest, when faced with a debate against Mary Harney at this stage, he could probably eat live babies and still get a decent hearing)

But outside of hard core FG supporters, Enda is not seen as "Taosieach Material"

He's just not lads and lassies, and don't come on here and try to say that he is. It is unfortunate for him, because I have often said, if he became (becomes!!) Taoiseach, he'll probably be a very good one.

But Irish elections have tended to be media driven, and why I can't understand for the life of me why he hasn't gotten any better in media outings given that he is a party leader for nearly a decade now, he just comes across as a wet fish every time he opens his mouth on television and radio

[Baron von Biffo]

And that TD was probably John Deasy. It isn't going to happen, unless he gets hit by a bus or something along those lines Enda Kenny is going to lead Fine Gael into the next general election.

The Sunday Times says it contacted 20 FG TDs and only one showed any doubt over Enda Kenny and I have little doubt that one was John Deasy, as they would have been stupid not to ring him.

All parties go up and down in the polls. It's all about the thread and the thread for Fine Gael is still up and at the very worse stable.

Could have been Lack Lustre Lucy either.

[rockofcashel]

And that TD was probably John Deasy. It isn't going to happen, unless he gets hit by a bus or something along those lines Enda Kenny is going to lead Fine Gael into the next general election.

The Sunday Times says it contacted 20 FG TDs and only one showed any doubt over Enda Kenny and I have little doubt that one was John Deasy, as they would have been stupid not to ring him.

All parties go up and down in the polls. It's all about the thread and the thread for Fine Gael is still up and at the very worse stable.

I'd go along with you Rocky, and I think Enda Kenny will be the next Taoiseach of Ireland. But, there is still a part of me that says he'll do so simply because FF's election will be particularly bad, rather than FG's being particularly good. He'll become Taoiseach "by default" if you will, as FF are going through the last throes of being in power simply too long and being kicked out just to change the furniture. A bit like the Conservatives in the UK in 1996.

However, it's hard not to think that if FG had a leader like Blair (the 96 version, not the one who eventually was kicked out), then instead of falling over the line, they would seriously damage FF for a long long period.

[Drico]

Kenny will be FG leader for a good long while yet.

I would predict, and hope, that the next leadership would be between Hayes and Varadkar and would say that the longer Kenny is leader the greater Varadkar's chances of succeeding him are. However by the time Kenny ends his leadership the political landscape could be completely different.

[Rocky]

It is a tough question. On a personal and political level, I feel some sympathy for Enda Kenny. I genuinely feel he is an honest and decent hard working politician, who is FG to the core, and one of very few people who would have had the energy and drive to frankly drag FG off the floor and turn them back into a genuine political force after the hammering they got in 2002.

He is also from accounts of people who have met him personally on canvasses (not FG people by any means) very impressive.


He is also a good "Chairman", an organiser and director rather than a leader. But, I also think he is lucky in that FG do have a range of good spokespeople in "important" Opposition positions like Bruton and James Reilly in Health (being a doctor himself, he can always invoke empathy in Health Matters, and lets be honest, when faced with a debate against Mary Harney at this stage, he could probably eat live babies and still get a decent hearing)

But outside of hard core FG supporters, Enda is not seen as "Taosieach Material"

He's just not lads and lassies, and don't come on here and try to say that he is. It is unfortunate for him, because I have often said, if he became (becomes!!) Taoiseach, he'll probably be a very good one.

But Irish elections have tended to be media driven, and why I can't understand for the life of me why he hasn't gotten any better in media outings given that he is a party leader for nearly a decade now, he just comes across as a wet fish every time he opens his mouth on television and radio

Whether or not it's true, the problem with your argument is Irish Taoisigh are not chosen by people going to the polls and ticking a box either yes or not underneath the question of "Do you want Enda Kenny as Taoiseach". Irish Taoisigh are not even chosen by people choosing between two candidates on the ballot paper.

Before 1997 it was argued that Bertie Ahern wasn't seen as Taoiseach material, the same was true of John Bruton before he became Taoiseach and he had shockingly bad approval ratings shortly before becoming Taoiseach. However in both cases enough people voted for candidates of their parties for them to become Taoiseach, although it was a bit more roundabout in the case of Bruton. Now of course you can argue that clearly Ahern wasn't good enough to be Taoiseach, but he was still Taoiseach.

Is Brian Cowen Taoiseach material? I don't think so despite the fact that he is Taoiseach. And that is the choice the Irish people will have to make at the back of their minds in the next general election. It isn't do they want Enda Kenny to be Taoiseach? It's do they want Enda Kenny or Brian Cowen to be Taoiseach? And although Kenny's approval ratings aren't great, they are still a good bit better then Cowen's.

All that is just simple facts.

In my opinion Enda Kenny hasn't had a good few weeks, but every week isn't great for anyone and thankfully the last few weeks haven't been a cruical time in Irish politics and he is the best man to lead Ireland and Fine Gael.

[Rocky]

I'd go along with you Rocky, and I think Enda Kenny will be the next Taoiseach of Ireland. But, there is still a part of me that says he'll do so simply because FF's election will be particularly bad, rather than FG's being particularly good. He'll become Taoiseach "by default" if you will, as FF are going through the last throes of being in power simply too long and being kicked out just to change the furniture. A bit like the Conservatives in the UK in 1996.

However, it's hard not to think that if FG had a leader like Blair (the 96 version, not the one who eventually was kicked out), then instead of falling over the line, they would seriously damage FF for a long long period.

Even in that is true, I don't think there is anyone like that in Fine Gael and even Irish politics. Richard Bruton is generally talked about as a replacement to Enda Kenny, but he is nothing like Blair, he isn't massively charismatic again and is better kept in Finance.

[Baron von Biffo]

Even in that is true, I don't think there is anyone like that in Fine Gael and even Irish politics. Richard Bruton is generally talked about as a replacement to Enda Kenny, but he is nothing like Blair, he isn't massively charismatic again and is better kept in Finance.

Bruton would be an asset for FG in Dublin where Kenny is like an anchor dragging them down. There's little point in him holding on for finance because Lab will likely insist on that.

[katy brock]

It is quite clear that Enda Kenny is in trouble see thread :
http://www.politics.ie/fine-gael/123...alks-indo.html
and specifically this story:
Kenny in spotlight | The Post


So it looks like if the next few opinion polls are bad - that Kenny will come under serious pressure. That means now is the time to start speculating on the replacement.

Here's the betting odds from Paddy Power
Next Fine Gael Leader - Next Fine Gael Leader Betting Odds from Paddy Power

Richard Bruton            4/6
Brian Hayes            6/1
Denis Naughton            8/1
Leo Varadkar            10/1
Simon Coveney            10/1
Olwyn Enright            14/1
Fergus O'Dowd            14/1
Phil Hogan            16/1
George Lee            16/1
Damien English            18/1
James O'Reilly            18/1
John Deasy            22/1
John Perry            25/1
Jimmy Deenihan            33/1
Alan Shatter            33/1
Lucinda Creighton        33/1
Michael McDowell        33/1

I'm not sure about Richard Bruton's resilience/energy ... Hayes often doesn't come across so well. Varadkar & Lee have little experience - but maybe that's what's needed ?

cYp

cYp: Stop winding people up. What on earth are you up to: Surely we should be getting somebody with a lick of sense to run the Country, not the usual crowd of race meeting attending, tracksuit wearing, dole queue lotto buying chancers!