Yes, it is in nobodies interest but labour's to have the BE as soon as possible.
Yes, FG are the masters of the parachuteThat might actually work to FG's advantage. It'll now be a bit easier to get an outside candidate, now that the membership's attachment to O'Leary is no longer a factor. There's no one individual among the FG councillors in DS about whom the members are saying "well he/she MUST be the candidate this time" - ergo there's no flag for them to rally round.
Well, they were before they named themEr, they have. O'Neill in Donegal, and Coffey in Waterford.
.I agree that he has name recognition, but all the things you're mentioning there are strictly relative to who his opponents will be - and at the moment we don't know those. After all, he was well-known, popular and had a high-profile last time - but the second Lee entered the race, he was toast. But anyway, it's debateable how popular he actually is - his electoral record is okay, but nothing amazing. And while I know one person's opinion is just one person's opinion, a friend of mine in Dundrum, who's a hard-core Labour voter, has the same retort everytime White is mentioned: "God but he's fierce smarmy, fierce smug". Its become a running joke at this stage
I dunno, he seems like a nice guy on TV, but then Joan Burton is supposed to be lovely in real life
Well I think the locals are relevant indicators, though they did overstate FF support a little and understate LP support a little, though not to the extent that some have been saying. They did also overstate indos support a little. I don't think there are, as you put it "massive cohorts" but I think labour will improve on their LE result come the GE, and have the potential to come quite close to FF with a Spring Tide type campaign and good vote management on their part and bad management by FF. I think labour have good candidates and will need to utilise them to their full potential in order to make the great gains they aspire to.Yes he does have a chance - but one thing I'm noticing is that you're referring to the locals as indicators here, in DSE, and in other places, to back up your claim that Labour will win X, Y and Z seats in the general election. Now that's fine, its a perfectly reasonable analysis - but it doesn't really square with the other opinion being expressed (mainly by a poster called "Livingstone", I think), that locals and generals are completely different, that there were massive cohorts of voters around the country just dying to vote Labour in a GE, but who for one reason or another just couldn't bring themselves to do so, in either local or European elections. Because as you said yourself, if you look at the locals, then Labour have great chances of gains in Dublin South-East, Dublin South-West, etc etc. But looking at the locals also means that Labour are at about 15% nationally, give or take a couple of points - meaning that all this talk of them being the largest party is exactly that - just talk. Either the locals are relevant indicators, or they're not. They can't be both.



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