What would FF look like in opposition?

[myk]

I have two visions of Fianna Fail in opposition;

The first is Fianna Fail as it was during the Rainbow Government time. Furious to find itself out of government. Attacking the government of the day on every issue regardless of its merits. Its opposition spokespersons leading strikes, tax-payer marches and unemployed demonstrations. Being populist and opportunistic.

This sort of Fianna Fail opposition has been very effective in the past, and has allowed Fianna Fail always to win elections from opposition.

My other vision of Fianna Fail in opposition is one of the party with its spirit broken. The electorate remembering that FF brought us to our current economic troubles and keeping them low in the polls for the coming years. Wrecked by parliamentary party political infighting. Having lost its position as the largest party in the Dail it is no longer the natural party of government. This and its lack of defined principles or ideology sees a significant number of its elected reps, members and previously loyal supporters abandon the party.

To be honest, although this second scenario would be the one I would like to see happen, I think it is much less likely than the first. It could come about however in the event of FG going into government without Labour. I believe a revitalised Labour party in opposition to a FG led government could overshadow FF in opposition.

What I wouldn't expect of FF in opposition is it of putting forward positive policy alternatives, like the way FG has been doing. Or supporting the government of the day on certain measures that are seen as being for the good of the country.

[Amuppet]

What would FF look like in opposition?

Hopefully small enough to fit in a minibus.

Apart from that, fuming and sulking. Anything but constructive, much less repentant for the corruption they spawned and the ruin they brought on the country.

[jtd]

I have two visions of Fianna Fail in opposition;

The first is Fianna Fail as it was during the Rainbow Government time. Furious to find itself out of government. Attacking the government of the day on every issue regardless of its merits. Its opposition spokespersons leading strikes, tax-payer marches and unemployed demonstrations. Being populist and opportunistic.

This sort of Fianna Fail opposition has been very effective in the past, and has allowed Fianna Fail always to win elections from opposition.

My other vision of Fianna Fail in opposition is one of the party with its spirit broken. The electorate remembering that FF brought us to our current economic troubles and keeping them low in the polls for the coming years. Wrecked by parliamentary party political infighting. Having lost its position as the largest party in the Dail it is no longer the natural party of government. This and its lack of defined principles or ideology sees a significant number of its elected reps, members and previously loyal supporters abandon the party.

To be honest, although this second scenario would be the one I would like to see happen, I think it is much less likely than the first. It could come about however in the event of FG going into government without Labour. I believe a revitalised Labour party in opposition to a FG led government could overshadow FF in opposition.

What I wouldn't expect of FF in opposition is it of putting forward positive policy alternatives, like the way FG has been doing. Or supporting the government of the day on certain measures that are seen as being for the good of the country.

The first proposition I find more likely. As long as there are die hard grass root members there will be a resilient FF. The same is true of FG. I doubt FG were feeling so optimistic about the future back in 2002, and yet here they are openly seeking (and unfortunatly not too far from getting) a mandate to govern. As a young FF member, I'm in for the long haul.

[AMCW177]

It could come about however in the event of FG going into government without Labour. I believe a revitalised Labour party in opposition to a FG led government could overshadow FF in opposition.

I think this is the best possible outcome for the country. Labour could even do their own version of a Tallaght Strategy and promise to support the FG government in power for a full 5 year term without joining a coalition "in the national interest". This would leave FG free to take the hard decisions and fix the economy while leaving Labour free to finish off Fianna Fáil and engage in populist opposition.

The prospect of being locked out of power for a long time will finish FF. If they don't have power, they don't have goodies to dole out to their supporters. And if the FG Government actually brings in major reforms early on to end the practice of croneyist appointments to State boards, the judiciary etc then that will further demoralise the FF rump.

But if FG come to power and merely stack the boards with their own cronies then this will simply reinforce the "sure der all the same" voter and fire up FF to continue the fight and win back "their" power to make cushty appointments to non-jobs.

This is a once-in-a-century chance to radically reform the way Ireland works from top to bottom, if FG are willing to take it and see the job through.

[Eirenua]

I wouldn't like to see them in opposition, I wouldn't like to see them in government..I wouldn't like to see them in Ireland...I wouldn't like to see them on this planet..I wouldn't like.....Aghh you know what I mean....

[myk]

The first proposition I find more likely. As long as there are die hard grass root members there will be a resilient FF. The same is true of FG. I doubt FG were feeling so optimistic about the future back in 2002, and yet here they are openly seeking (and unfortunatly not too far from getting) a mandate to govern. As a young FF member, I'm in for the long haul.

You are absolutely correct. Things were looking very grim for FG in 2002. Without such decisive action they could have continued on a downward slope. I think the three major parties have a certain amount of resilience and won't die straight after a bad election result, like for example the PDs did.

But I do think that a fundamental shift in politics in Ireland could set any of the three parties on a terminal downward slope that could take 10-20 years.

In 2002 FG were used to being in opposition and were able to rebuild from opposition. My thoughts on FF is that possibly the main distinguishing feature of the party is that it is seen as the "natural party of government". Because of this I wonder if the party loses its status as the largest party in the Dail, loses its place in government and appears to be unlikely to be able to lead government in the near future (ie after the following general election) will it lose all sense of purpose.

[adamirer]

I have two visions of Fianna Fail in opposition;

The first is Fianna Fail as it was during the Rainbow Government time. Furious to find itself out of government. Attacking the government of the day on every issue regardless of its merits. Its opposition spokespersons leading strikes, tax-payer marches and unemployed demonstrations. Being populist and opportunistic.

Populist, avoiding responmsibility for the mess that the new gov has to clean up. It'll be 94-97 all over again. Zero tolerance?? remember that!

[KingKane]

FF have never had to compete with the Labour party while in opposition. They might find it a harder experience than they realise.

[myk]

FF have never had to compete with the Labour party while in opposition. They might find it a harder experience than they realise.

My thoughts exactly. Labour have longed to have both FF and FG in government so that they could be the main voice of opposition. Some claim that they came close to being the main voice of opposition in the years before the 1992 election.

So if they find themselves alongside a deeply unpopular FF that has been rejected by the electorate and one that has only a few more seats than Labour, I think Labour could potentially become in effect the main opposition. And marginalise FF even further. Now the chances of Labour and FF both being in opposition are remote I think, and are perhaps even more remote given that Kenny today seems to have ruled out coalition government with the Greens. But if it did happen then it could be potentially fatal for FF.

[jtd]

You are absolutely correct. Things were looking very grim for FG in 2002. Without such decisive action they could have continued on a downward slope. I think the three major parties have a certain amount of resilience and won't die straight after a bad election result, like for example the PDs did.

But I do think that a fundamental shift in politics in Ireland could set any of the three parties on a terminal downward slope that could take 10-20 years.

In 2002 FG were used to being in opposition and were able to rebuild from opposition. My thoughts on FF is that possibly the main distinguishing feature of the party is that it is seen as the "natural party of government". Because of this I wonder if the party loses its status as the largest party in the Dail, loses its place in government and appears to be unlikely to be able to lead government in the near future (ie after the following general election) will it lose all sense of purpose.

Losing 'all sense of purpose' is a very strong phrase. Certainly the party will lose what has been to date a firm and steady footing. But to say that a general election loss will be the death knell of the 'natural party of government' status is a bit far fetched at this point in time. While the average age of those attending the Ard Fheis was about the same age as the state, there is a younger element to the party. Frankly, it would all depend on how the fallout settled. FG have a hunger at the moment and strive to fulfil it. The same would be true of FF in opposition. The labour party factor is singularly unpredictable. We're along way from that particular scenario (in a political timefram). However, I believe that the age the coalition is far from over, but the make up could be about to change.