On the assumption that Cowen will hang onto the bitter end, when would Lenihan, Martin, Ahern, Hanifin and Dempsey (any of whom could be the next leader of FF*), say enough is enough, and get Cowen to go for an election?
5th June - only FF and FG have the capacity to fight on all fronts and the damage would be lessoned.
Autumn - ie before the December budget which had planned to cut €4bn at least, but the exchequer returns say will be worse. At least one of them could be nominated to the EU commission. The Local elections will be over, which means that if the FG + an other government ran full term, they would have a springboard in advance of a general.
Any time at the mercy of the Greens, Lowry, JHR or a Jow Behan backbencher.
Whenever 545 days or so have elapsed - Cowen will have served longer than Bruton.
Before April, 2011 - to give a chance of being in power for 1916 centenary.
The bitter, the bitter end (ie May, 2012) and risk:
1) The prospect of losing their own seats.
2) when it just aint good getting up in mornings.
3) A Canadian Tory style meltdown or even Bristish Tory style meltdown (where a second term in the wilderness is also at risk)
or
hope against hope, that it all magically comes right?
* God help us all.



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