Is it a given that FF will lose seats?

[MacCoise]

Is it a given that FF will lose seats?
Is it just a question of how many?
Post-election can FF claim a victory because "we only lost 10 or 5 or 15 seats?"

[Minister3]

If they return to govt the answer is yes.The will lose 4 to 5 seats but these will be clawed back in Kerry South /Kildare North and possibly in Dublin mid West going from 3 to 4 and Galway west is looking highly likely to produce a 3rd.One has to remember that the wiping we got in 04 was in Dublin the rural vote stayed relatively the same.

[galwaygirl]

Chaps, not stirring yere pot but in Galway west ye'll get the 2 again.
Ye'll come close but won't pull it off

[drjimryan]

Hi...i think YES it is definite that FF will loose seats.....

Oconnor DSW - definite loss
Mulcahy DC - probable loss
Wicklow - Likely Loss
Dublin North - probable loss
North East - probable loss
North West - not sure but not safe
Central - hardly see two from present candidates
Then of course callely or Haughey??????

Also no chance of a gain in DMW.....org in disarray.......

So......a net country losss of 10 is not far off probable.....

[newFF]

On the basis of current polling trends it is inevitable that seats will be lost.

[revereie]

I don't place much stock in individual polls per se ... but the trend of all these polls spell trouble for FF, notwithstanding our pr-stv system which has rewarded FF disproportionately in the past.

[newFF]

I don't place much stock in individual polls per se ... but the trend of all these polls spell trouble for FF, notwithstanding our pr-stv system which has rewarded FF disproportionately in the past.

The trends in all the polls suggest Michael McDowell can say and do as he pleases, Mary Harney can sit on her posterior comfortable in the knowledge that any backlash will hit FF and not the PDs.

The PDs know Labour and FG may have to come knocking on their door to make up the numbers.

[Big Jim]

The problem with these national polls is they ignore local dynamics, ie the local FF / FG ‘parish pump’ TD, who is quietly working behind the scenes to reinforce his vote. Come polling time – pollster asks punter who will you most likely give your vote to FF, FG, PD etc.. punter being the cute hoor he is says ‘independent’. However come the election punter votes for Jimmy Yokel the man he knows and trusts… it’s been the historical problem with Irish politics.

I’m very skeptical about current polling trends, the opposition doesn’t seem to be capitalising on FF misfortune, they are down 10 points and FG/Labour haven’t picked up anything. I’d be much happier if the party moved away from national spin and focused on targeting individual seats like the Provos do.

[Tulach]

Unless the government can hugely cut the number of people on trolleys in A&E, reduce the number of people killed on our roads and the number of murders on our streets they will loose seats in big numbers.

The governments inaction on the topics above over the past 3 years have caught up on them and imo they won't be able to make much of an impact before the next election.

[newFF]

Unless the government can hugely cut the number of people on trolleys in A&E, reduce the number of people killed on our roads and the number of murders on our streets they will loose seats in big numbers.

The governments inaction on the topics above over the past 3 years have caught up on them and imo they won't be able to make much of an impact before the next election.

There you have it. Health, Justice etc. PDs in situ.