Could Fianna Fail suffer the fate of the Home Rule Party?

[Breadan O'Connor]

In 1918 the Irish Parliamentary, or Home Rule, Party lost nearly all of it's seats to Sinn Fein. For decades the Home Rule Party had represented Irish Nationalists but by 1918 it had lost the confidence of the people.

Now in 2009 we are facing what may be the greatest economic crisis ever faced by independent Ireland. The government budget deficit seems almost unbridgeable and on top of that we must add the bad property debts of the banks which the taxpayer is now liable for.

For decades we've known of corruption problems in Fianna Fail, and yet people have continued to support them. In particular the party's links to property speculators. Certain speculators have incurred property debts which will now have to be covered by the taxpayer. It may be that government finances will be overwhelmed by this level of debt.

FF have responsibility for all that went on in the property market this past decade and now for it's disastrous conclusion. The failure to regulate banking is more stunning still. It looks like the living standards of middle and lower income people will be extremely badly hit as this crisis progresses.



So the question is, will Irish people now turn against Fianna Fail as in 1918 their ancestors turned against the Home Rule Party?

[Defeated Romanticist]

In 1918 the Irish Parliamentary, or Home Rule, Party lost nearly all of it's seats to Sinn Fein. For decades the Home Rule Party had represented Irish Nationalists but by 1918 it had lost the confidence of the people.

Now in 2009 we are facing what may be the greatest economic crisis ever faced by independent Ireland. The government budget deficit seems almost unbridgeable and on top of that we must add the bad property debts of the banks which the taxpayer is now liable for.

For decades we've known of corruption problems in Fianna Fail, and yet people have continued to support them. In particular the party's links to property speculators. Certain speculators have incurred property debts which will now have to be covered by the taxpayer. It may be that government finances will be overwhelmed by this level of debt.

FF have responsibility for all that went on in the property market this past decade and now for it's disastrous conclusion. The failure to regulate banking is more stunning still. It looks like the living standards of middle and lower income people will be extremely badly hit as this crisis progresses.



So the question is, will Irish people now turn against Fianna Fail as in 1918 their ancestors turned against the Home Rule Party?

No.




















[SIZE=1]Stupid 10 charachter limit.[/SIZE]

[Keith-M]

No, for two reasons, firstly the IPP were contesting an election under FPTP, under STV and PR, such dramatic losses in terms of seats don't happen once you keep a core vote of around 20-25% (enough to get you a seat in every constituency).

Secondly, the IPP were overtaken by a party offering a real alternative.

[Breadan O'Connor]

No, for two reasons, firstly the IPP were contesting an election under FPTP, under STV and PR, such dramatic losses in terms of seats don't happen once you keep a core vote of around 20-25% (enough to get you a seat in every constituency).

Secondly, the IPP were overtaken by a party offering a real alternative.

But we're still in the early days of this crisis. Will attitudes change as the level of economic suffering increases?

[drbob1972]

whilst i would not be upset to see the demise of FF, there is still a core support base that will support same unless they feel they have an alternative, FG would not be seen as such for the majority of FF's core support, nor Lab or SF (though some would i guess) so until there is an alternative that appeals to same core then FF will maintain a presence in irish politics

[Keith-M]

But we're still in the early days of this crisis. Will attitudes change as the level of economic suffering increases?

Yes I think they will, if FF can steady the ship and Ireland is not seen to be doing any worse than any other country, while FG continue to fail to offer any alternative and keep that cabage patch doll as leader, I think you could see FF re-take first position. and Labour a much closer third.

I don't expect this to happen by June as the electorate tends to use mid-terms to slap he government, even in good times but I think the longer-term fundamental change could be that a FF/FG coalition becomes much closer to happening.

[peader odonnell]

In 1918 the Irish Parliamentary, or Home Rule, Party lost nearly all of it's seats to Sinn Fein. For decades the Home Rule Party had represented Irish Nationalists but by 1918 it had lost the confidence of the people.

Now in 2009 we are facing what may be the greatest economic crisis ever faced by independent Ireland. The government budget deficit seems almost unbridgeable and on top of that we must add the bad property debts of the banks which the taxpayer is now liable for.

For decades we've known of corruption problems in Fianna Fail, and yet people have continued to support them. In particular the party's links to property speculators. Certain speculators have incurred property debts which will now have to be covered by the taxpayer. It may be that government finances will be overwhelmed by this level of debt.

FF have responsibility for all that went on in the property market this past decade and now for it's disastrous conclusion. The failure to regulate banking is more stunning still. It looks like the living standards of middle and lower income people will be extremely badly hit as this crisis progresses.



So the question is, will Irish people now turn against Fianna Fail as in 1918 their ancestors turned against the Home Rule Party?

The answer is no ,im afraid to say,unfortunatley,pity though.

[jmcc]

In 1918 the Irish Parliamentary, or Home Rule, Party lost nearly all of it's seats to Sinn Fein. For decades the Home Rule Party had represented Irish Nationalists but by 1918 it had lost the confidence of the people.

It didn't give the people what it wanted and seemed to be too respectful of those in power. FF has made a virtue out of cronyism and it is this that will kill it.

So the question is, will Irish people now turn against Fianna Fail as in 1918 their ancestors turned against the Home Rule Party?

It has already happened. The change from single party governments to coalition governments could be the evidence of a long term shift away from having two dominant political parties in the system. The support for political parties is also cyclical so FF has a bit to go yet before it reaches the bottom of the cycle. A key indicator will be physical violence or extreme verbal attacks on those canvassing for FF at the local elections. If voters react like that to FF then it is in serious trouble. The disclosure of FF involvement, however remote, in the Anglo-Irish Bank farce will also reinforce the myth of FF politicians being gombeen crooks.

The present leadership of FF may have to be removed or significantly changed if FF is going to come through the Local Elections with a reasonable performance. It will also require the sacrifice of some front benchers. Harney would be the obvious choice. Cowen is a problem. Coughlan is a disaster. The most innovative thing that FF could do would be to ask FG to allow Richard Bruton to become either Minister of State for Finance or Minister for Finance. However if FF continues on the same rudderless course, then it will end up on the rocks.

Regards...jmcc

[drbob1972]

The present leadership of FF may have to be removed or significantly changed if FF is going to come through the Local Elections with a reasonable performance. It will also require the sacrifice of some front benchers. Harney would be the obvious choice. Cowen is a problem. Coughlan is a disaster. The most innovative thing that FF could do would be to ask FG to allow Richard Bruton to become either Minister of State for Finance or Minister for Finance. However if FF continues on the same rudderless course, then it will end up on the rocks.

Regards...jmcc

whilst that would be good for FF, and perhaps even good for the country (though not sure how much one many in such a situation could achieve) it would most certainly not be in the interest of FG so i couldn't see him accepting any such offer

[Breadan O'Connor]

It didn't give the people what it wanted and seemed to be too respectful of those in power. FF has made a virtue out of cronyism and it is this that will kill it.

It has already happened. The change from single party governments to coalition governments could be the evidence of a long term shift away from having two dominant political parties in the system. The support for political parties is also cyclical so FF has a bit to go yet before it reaches the bottom of the cycle. A key indicator will be physical violence or extreme verbal attacks on those canvassing for FF at the local elections. If voters react like that to FF then it is in serious trouble. The disclosure of FF involvement, however remote, in the Anglo-Irish Bank farce will also reinforce the myth of FF politicians being a gombeen crook.

The present leadership of FF may have to be removed or significantly changed if FF is going to come through the Local Elections with a reasonable performance. It will also require the sacrifice of some front benchers. Harney would be the obvious choice. Cowen is a problem. Coughlan is a disaster. The most innovative thing that FF could do would be to ask FG to allow Richard Bruton to become either Minister of State for Finance or Minister for Finance. However if FF continues on the same rudderless course, then it will end up on the rocks.

Regards...jmcc

I'm inclined to think along similar lines as you.

The level of economic suffering will increase greatly this year and probably next year also which in turn will increase the levels of rage.

People have additional stress because of high indebtedness.