whatever about the Home Rule Party I think FF will suffer same fate as UK Conservatives post-1992, after the european exchange-rate mechanism exit, the repossession of nearly one million houses, and the various sleaze episodes that dogged them. If you apply that analogy then FF won't see the door of power after the next GE for at least three cycles
The cynicisim of FF is breathtaking even to a hardened anti-ffer like me. The threesome that rtun the party seem ot have written off any action tocorrect the state finances or the perception that the dail and seanad are full of lazy espense gouging tossers till at least after the locals. MEanwhile, the crash accellerates. They are in govt. If they had a sense of patriotisim they would accept the losses and do what is needed. They know the sense of urgency and the last thing we need is the cabinet on the lash with the lads in citywest.
Rule or leave Brian.....
The context is different. The HR party still won around 20% of the popular vote. This was not reflected in the results because of the UK electoral-system of FPTP. There is zero change of FF being reduced to 6 seats. I'll believe that FF is on 22% or even 24% in a GE when I see it. For that to happen, around 45% of their 2007 vote would have to defect - an almight hurdle to be reached. The large undecided-vote imho includes a lot of closet FFers who are not ready to come out. It is the love that dare not speak its name. The next GE is potentially 3.5 years away. If the recession ends and the economy returns to growth, then all bets are off. However imho, Cowen cannot lead the party to victory. It was a fairly close-run thing last time. Lenihan is arguably 'damaged-goods' in political-terms as the Finance Minister presiding over a recession. A change in leadership and in the economic fortunes of the country are a prerequiste for the re-election of FF to govt at the next election imho.
Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
The rate of job losses in January suggests this recession is more savage than the 80s.
This hasn't sunk in with most people yet.
When it does then I expect the full backlash against FF.
Maybe but remember it didn't happen in the 1980's. I have stated in the past that the crisis has the potential to reverse the realignment of 1932. But whether it does is another matter entirely.
I think Fianna Fáil will suffer major losses in the local and European elections but as has been pointed out by others the real reason for the collapse of the Irish Parliamentary Party was the meteoric rise of another party, the old Sinn Féin. There is no sign of any other party making such a dramatic leap forward here although it seems Labour is doing better than others due mainly to the media performance of Gilmore. I think that may turn out somewhat different on the ground in local election areas however.
The other important thing to note is that this collapse is not of an ideology as such but of one of a number of parties that broadly share the same ideology - liberal capitalism and the market economy laced with differing amounts of social interventionism.
Fine Gael looked to be finished after the 2002 general election when it lost 23 seats yet they have bounced back. Fianna Fáil could do the same although the large decline in their core vote must be very worrying for them.
It should be remembered too however that a shift by a "core" voter from Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael would be regarded as a bridge too far by most FF'ers and Labour would be seen as a middle ground which they could transfer a protest vote to. They could also suffer a crisis of conscience in the polling booth and give the auld tick to their first love - Fianna Fáil.
We shall wait and see. Core meltdown possible, chain reaction improbable. But who knows?
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