Are Fianna Fail worried the Greens are going to leave?

[yehbut_nobut]

There seems to be a lot of Kite flying lately, suggesting Labour's preferential coalition choice should be FF rather than FG.

This is at the same time as a lot of wedge driving between FG and Labour, highlighting policy differnces.

As these "thoughts" are all drifting from one direction only, can anything more be read in to it? Why the speculation this early into a 5 year term?

Their government majority is shrinking, as partners and backbenchers grow more jittery. We don't know whats said at cabinet meetings, but are we seeing FF considering their options, worried that the Greens might (finally) be thinking of jumping ship?

[FutureTaoiseach]

They will only leave if they can prevent an early election. Under the Constitution, the President has discretion to refuse an election if An Taoiseach lacks the support of a Dail majority. If the govt loses a confidence-motion in Dáil Eireann, then the Taoiseach loses that majority and the President can say no to a dissolution. Cowen won't want an early election for obvious reasons, and neither will the Greens, fearing the same fate as the PDs. But they may see a Rainbow govt as a chance to regain Rainbow transfers and credibility with the Green-base, which are mostly on the Left of Irish politics (which is in itself quite something). Therefore, I stand over my prediction that if they leave there will not be an early election, but rather a Rainbow of FG-Lab-Green (77 seats before by-election) and possibly SF (4) with the support of at least 2 Independents (Lowry and McGrath). That gives them 83 TDs - a majority given the CC can't vote except as a casting vote. It will likely grow to 84 if the by-election in Dublin South happens before then.

[Rebel CNC]

To be honest, the GP have been fairly robust. FF's main worry is more of their own rats jumping ship, especially those in vulnerable constituencies.

Too early to be talking about Labour's options but hard to ignore the fact that they will not want to upset the Unions while FG (correctly) see the elimination of waste and bureacracy in the public sector following Bertie's benchmarking giveaway, as the biggest challenge facing government.

[yehbut_nobut]

So is there any explanation for this apparent cozying-up to Labour?

[FutureTaoiseach]

So is there any explanation for this apparent cozying-up to Labour?

FF are like the plague at the moment and Labour will not watch to catch being associated with them.

[Rebel CNC]

So is there any explanation for this apparent cozying-up to Labour?

FF will do anything to stay in government and even if they lose 20+ seats, they'll still see a FF- Lab coalition as an option for holding onto power. Labour may take the option if the alternative is joining a FG party demanding huge public sector savings.

[yehbut_nobut]

FF will do anything to stay in government and even if they lose 20+ seats, they'll still see a FF- Lab coalition as an option for holding onto power. Labour may take the option if the alternative is joining a FG party demanding huge public sector savings.

all quite possibly true - I'm more interested in why things like this are being openly considered now, at this early stage of the electioral cycle.

Can't help wondering if they know something we don't - is there a "line in the sand" that's FF are going to cross in the next few months?

[Defeated Romanticist]

There seems to be a lot of Kite flying lately, suggesting Labour's preferential coalition choice should be FF rather than FG.

This is at the same time as a lot of wedge driving between FG and Labour, highlighting policy differnces.

As these "thoughts" are all drifting from one direction only, can anything more be read in to it? Why the speculation this early into a 5 year term?

Their government majority is shrinking, as partners and backbenchers grow more jittery. We don't know whats said at cabinet meetings, but are we seeing FF considering their options, worried that the Greens might (finally) be thinking of jumping ship?

No.

Unlike FG, people who've actually gotten into govt after winning an election in the last generation or so know that no matter how you rationalise it, 5 years in govt is worth 50 in opposition.

[soubresauts]

If the Labour people could look ahead clearly, and not be dazzled by the prospect of "getting into government", they'd try to knock the heads of those two right-wing parties together. Yes, there should be a FF-FG coalition.

The policy and ideological differences between them are small. Why shouldn't FF and FG get along well together? (The Civil War? Give me a break.)

FF-FG should be a piece of cake. I mean, look at DU-SF up north.

[wombat]

FF will do anything to stay in government and even if they lose 20+ seats, they'll still see a FF- Lab coalition as an option for holding onto power. Labour may take the option if the alternative is joining a FG party demanding huge public sector savings.

I can't foresee Labour going in with FF unless the other option is FF +Green +SF+ Hely Rea + Harney +any other loose nuts but if that were the case, its likely FG + Labour + nuts would be close to a working majority.