Just wondering what the precedent / porcedure is for Confidence Motions relating to Ministers is?
Harney survived one a year ago, didn't she?
Given the strong feelings all round relating to the Lenihan's builders bail-out budget and the Health Service, is there any history of 2 Ministers facing confidence motions at the same time?
“A healthy social life is found only, when in the mirror of each soul the whole community finds its reflection, and when in the whole community the virtue of each one is living”
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[QUOTE=yehbut_nobut;1245196]Just wondering what the precedent / porcedure is for Confidence Motions relating to Ministers is?
Harney survived one a year ago, didn't she?
Given the strong feelings all round relating to the Lenihan's builders bail-out budget and the Health Service, is there any history of 2 Ministers facing confidence motions at the same time?[/QUOTE
A vote of confidence is not required at the moment, if the government is defeated on any part of the finance bill thats the end of that government
Originally Posted by turdsl
Not certain about this- but wasn't the finance bill passed? The changes are part of the Health / social welfare bills, aren't they? Or are am I missing something.
Anyway Lenihan probably could, but would Mary Harney survive a confidence motioon in this climate?
“A healthy social life is found only, when in the mirror of each soul the whole community finds its reflection, and when in the whole community the virtue of each one is living”
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Yeh it has been passed, why do you think all these back benchers suddenly thought i was terrible AFTER voting for it?
This is what they do, they support something, then pretend to grumble about it, they might even create a show of leaving the party (and be back within months) if their seats in danger.
I thought the bill had to be voted on next Wednesday. (I'm open to correction here!)
As far as I know, the Budget is the headline act, the finance bill is where the pork gets distributed - tax breaks for your cronies.
think thats a FG motion.
No. She would not survive and I think suspect that a lot of FFer backbenchers want her gone. If FF does not get rid of Harney in the next two days, it risks the possibility of a general election.
Regards...jmcc
Fine Gael has a motion to reverse the over 70s cutback that will be voted on next Wednesday. As the idea was Harney's, and was promoted by Lenihan, if the motion is passed it is hard to see how either could survive. Cowen would also be terminally damaged.
FF has 74 seats (down three: the Ceann Comhairle, the late Seamus Brennan and Joe Behan). The Greens have 6 and the PDs 2.
Of the supportive independents
Finian McGrath looks to have jumped ship.
Just about all the others would get crucified if they vote to keep the cut, and as independents they would be most at risk from public anger. So I would expect most to vote for the FG motion or abstain.
Joe Behan looks like voting for the FG motion.
So the pressure will be on the FF and Green backbenchers. If any more break ranks the FG motion will be carried and the cut binned.
The fact that Cowen delayed his China trip shows just how worried he is about the motion. If there was no vote he could stall the issue for a few weeks. But the FG motion will bring it to a head. If he cannot diffuse it before the vote, then he is in deep deep trouble.
Either way, Harney is so damaged now to be beyond salvage. If Cowen does not drop her, he will be damaged. So as soon as the PDs wind up, at the latest, I'd expect Harney to go, willingly or not. Lenihan is also extremely damaged.
The situation demands that Harney be removed within the next two days. If she is not then FF is facing a general election. The choice for FF is Harney or government.
Regards...jmcc
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