The real reason why Bertie resigned now

[Daonphobal]

I believe that the Lisbon Treaty was certain to be heavily defeated if Bertie continued beyond May 6th.

I think that certain cabinet members called a halt over the weekend for this reason.

If that is so, it means that ultimately the neutralists brought down Bertie by making the EU issue too hot for the Government. Sweet revenge.

Mind you, the damage has been done, and I don't see Brian Cowen undoing it, not on Lisbon.

Any other thoughts on why Bertie went now...

Is it really Mahon alone, or is it Mahon + Lisbon, or something else?

[rockofcashel]

Yup, it was Lisbon. I was told that directly last week. Cowen was put forward, and the standard FF canvassing message will be.. ah don't get him into a mess with the lads in Europe straight away, give him some chance.

Know what? It'll probably work

[corkman2007]

The state of the economy is another big factor.

He goes now before the recession kicks in and can continue spinning the line that he's an economic genius.

If he stayed on during the coming recession that record would be destroyed pretty quickly.

'He's the most skilful, the most devious, the most cunning of them all.'

[jerryp]

Anyone buy into the theory floated here that he had sight of some of the documents going to be used in the tribunal against him and decided to do the lap of honour before this happens ?

[kittyn]

'He's the most skilful, the most devious, the most cunning of them all.'[/quote] from CJH I believe........

Now thats a scary quote coming from him........

[NotDevsSon]

I was told six months ago that if by April it looked as though Ahern's position would cause a No vote, he would be told by Cowen to resign. The FFer who said that was adamant. He said 'if the treaty is in trouble because of him, he will either be forced to resign in April, or be overthrown."

It is interesting that he did indeed resign in April. In addition the claim that it was somehow some big shock is rubbish. FF members were trying to place bets last week with bookies that Ahern would resign on Wednesday morning.

Two things seem critical. Ahern had what people there said was a "fraught" meeting with Cowen last Thursday. By Friday rumours were spreading that he would resign on Wednesday.

An additional catalyst was the fact that he would have to make some statement in the Dail on Wednesday afternoon on the fact that his on-oath evidence to the tribunal had been disproved by bank records. Resigning on Wednesday morning conveniently dodged having to give that explanation and bought him a critical few weeks to get out of that bind.

So it may well have been a combination of worries about the treaty if he was around and his own need to dodge that Dail statement. To understand the importance of that disproved evidence, remember that if it is shown that he deliberately as opposed to accidentally mislead the tribunal, he could face criminal prosecution. If the presumption is that that evidence was deliberately false, that raises a massive problem over his 2002-3 tax certs. If he got them through deliberate misinformation, he could also face criminal prosecution and in that case a likely prison sentence. And if the tribunal decides that he was spinning yarns to them, they can hit him for the costs of the tribunal. Ray Burke was hit with a €10 million bill. So the sensitivity of Ahern's position cannot be overstated, and the need to avoid at all costs giving that Dail statement obvious.

It may well be a combination of worrying signs for the impact of his position on the Treaty, the problem he faced with that Dail statement, and that fraught meeting he had with Cowen in St Luke's on Thursday (followed by rumours on Friday that the Wednesday statement would be a resignation) that led to the resignation. One thing is clear. He didn't just happen to pick Wednesday to resign at random. The resignation HAD to happen before the Dail statement he would otherwise have to give.

[NotDevsSon]

Anyone buy into the theory floated here that he had sight of some of the documents going to be used in the tribunal against him and decided to do the lap of honour before this happens ?

There has been a rumour of something major for some weeks now, with a national newspaper having an explosive story according to the rumours but being cautious about using it because of how big it is.

I don't know if there is any truth in it. (Journalists in that paper do go into an unusual 'no comment' or 'lets change the topic' mode when asked, so they seem to have something. The question is what?

[daithimac]

He got hounded out of office by the opposition of course. Anyone want to bet on how big the FG drop will be in the next poll. I'd say 3 points.

[loner]

Anyone know what Bertie meant when he told Gormley on Tuesday night that he had a strategy for Wednesdays Dail appearance.

[corkman2007]

Bertie's strategy:

1. Resign
2. Avoid potentially difficult Dail questions by doing 1. above
3. Enjoy Blair-style 'lap of honour'
4. Get hammered at the Mahon Tribunal
5. Take up cushy directorships
6. Write self-serving autobiography/co-operate with authorised biographer
7. Make sh*t loads of money on the after-dinner speaking circuit

Edit: forgot to add: avoid blame for collapse of Irish economy