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If as widely expected, Brian Cowen becomes Taoiseach, which Ministers who'll stay and who'll go under a likely cabinet reshuffle?
If as widely expected, Brian Cowen becomes Taoiseach, which Ministers who'll stay and who'll go under a likely cabinet reshuffle?
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its too soon to call yet, a lot of wheeling and dealing is still to be done - right now i believe the cabinet will be broadly similar with some significant changes in the junior minister ranks.Originally Posted by David Cochrane
willie o'dea-out
seamus brennan - out
pat carey - promoted to justice
brian lenihan - finance
Dick Roche - out
Martin Cullen - demoted to junior
Timmy Dooely - promoted to junior
John Currann - promoted to junior
Barry Andrews - Promoted to junior
Charlie O'Connor - Chief Whip
Tom Kitt - Promoted to Defence
Mary Harney to leave cabinet
Mary Coughlan to be Minister for health
Noel Aherne - OUT
Who indeed? Potential rivals like Dermot Ahern & Mary Hanafin will surely have to be shown the door or at least put in their respective boxes. Lenihan is surely one to watch for the future but can afford to wait 5 or 10 years, so hardly represents an immediate threat. I don't know about Martin or Dempsey - are they on good terms with Cowen? He can't (and wont) demote very senior minister, so who will he keep onside?
Are Cowen and O'Dea not close?
Lenihan won't be moved to Finance - he's only just made it to Cabinet. You don't put a novice in during difficult times. Martin is the obvious choice for Finance if Cowen is Taoiseach, having spent a few years in an economics ministry.
It'll be interesting to see if Cowen will copy the caution of Bertie or the bloodletting of Albert!
I would have said Hanafin, but the INTO seem to be damaging her popularity.
The big question is for me will Harney get to stay on in the new government? It'd be a really popular move my Cowen to axe her steraight away, might provider a "Cowen bounce"
"We believe in constitutional action in normal times; we believe in revolutionary action in exceptional times."
James Connolly,
I would have said Hanafin, but the INTO seem to be damaging her popularity.
The big question is for me will Harney get to stay on in the new government? It'd be a really popular move by Cowen to axe her steraight away, might provider a "Cowen bounce"
"We believe in constitutional action in normal times; we believe in revolutionary action in exceptional times."
James Connolly,
I wouldn't be surprised to see Harney and the PDs out with Cowen saying it's time to take control of Health. Possibly Brian Lenihan in there.
I think O'Dea will stay and will probably get Justice. Other than being an annoying pain in the arse to listen to he has done a reasonable job
I wouldn't be surprised to see Martin Mansgher landed in Iveagh House.
Dermot Ahern will get Finance.
I think Hanniffin is out. She has asset stripped Second and Third level to pump money into Primary and has still made a dogs dinner of it. Martin in Here.
O'Cuiv has long been recognised as a joke and his whole department will be demoted to a junior position and I'd say it will be under someone else.
Coughlan, Dempsey and Cullen will play musical chairs because there is a shocking lack of talent below them.
Given that, when asked about continuing PD participation in the government by Ahern, Cowen replied "If in doubt, leave them out", I would be very surprised if Harney survives Cowen becoming Taoiseach. Cowen is a traditionalist in the FF sense and won't want a state car going to an outsider if it can go to one of his own. While he needs the Greens, he doesn't need the PDs for the numbers to add up.
Fianna Fail - The Loss of Sovereignty Party.
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