Anyone agree that Fianna Fail are in big danger, long term?

[Mariella Froster]

Reading the lie of the political landscape, I'd wager that this is a critical moment in the life of Fianna Fail - a period of time when future retrospective analysis may well show that the party failed to recognise a major sea change in the way the public have come to view them. For FF it's business as usual - the same jaded strategy of essentially bluster and bull************************ - and when those two strategies fail - bullying. Everybody endlessly on the make, including the Taoiseach. It's not funny any more. It never was to most of us.

There is at last a growing consciousness among the electorate that this lot have not been a good thing for Ireland - their essential corruptedness and dishonesty over three decades has caused people to seriously reconsider their contribution to Irish life. People increasingly believe themselves to have been seriously used and abused. Bertie was one dissembling politician on the make too far and by hanging on for so long despite his disgrace and in such a pitiful manner he hasn't just exposed the poverty of his own politics but that of the entire party machine - and all the media and other manipulation that goes with it. These are the tactics of another generation of politicians. FF needs a complete make over - root and branch reform. It needs to do something about the electorate's shattered trust in it.

Although Brian Cowen is a more able man than Ahern, he would be a disaster for FF because he will only to be perceived as more of the same thing. Men seem to be impressed by that ludicrous cock-fighting thing he does in 'debate'. Actually, it's a big turn off for women. I just wish somebody would shut him up whenever I hear him doing that. The likes of Beverly Flynn Cooper are not at all what we want to see, either. Her reisnstatement is one of the most atrocious political developments of recent years - a blatant two fingers to anyone who gives a damn about probity in Irish Life. All of a piece with what Ahern is like himself of course.

Fine Gael are lucky not to be in power at the moment in one sense - FF deserve the blame for having squandered the economic opportunity of the last 15 years. The devastation that is upon us is converging on Ahern's final disgrace and it will be unmistakalbe that the two things are intrinsically bound up in one another.

[Defeated Romanticist]

You have a point, although you don't know it. Two things are going to happen in the next few months. Firstly, the civil partnerships legislation, secondly the Lisbon treaty referendum. One section of the polity are ardently against both- christian conservatives. The three main political parties have preferred to fight the culture war on the left instead of the right and this, led by Cathy Sinnot might prove to be a seminal moment. She will spearhead that campaign against Lisbon because she's freindly and you can't attack the politician for different abilities. If she has any ambition she, and perhaps a disguntled FFer and FGer could make a serious movement for themselves. This would be a threat to all three of the main parties (yes three, there is a reason that stuff about abortion is hidden the wrong side of Labour's Irish language policy).

FF need to re-establish their credance as a party mindful of the moderation of he half of the Irish people who go to mass every week. Cowen appears to know the score in this regard but I would be concerned about Lenihan staying in Justice to long.

The rest of your article is tripe.

FF have proven that no matter how hard the IT tries, they can't manipulate democracy. FF have proven tht you can win an election in the face of a howling gale of negetive publicit by simply doing the populist thing-governing sensably with the national interest always in mind. That sells well in the doorstep.

BTW, Corruptedness-Did you make that up?

[Mariella Froster]

You have a point, although you don't know it. Two things are going to happen in the next few months. Firstly, the civil partnerships legislation, secondly the Lisbon treaty referendum. One section of the polity are ardently against both- christian conservatives. The three main political parties have preferred to fight the culture war on the left instead of the right and this, led by Cathy Sinnot might prove to be a seminal moment. She will spearhead that campaign against Lisbon because she's freindly and you can't attack the politician for different abilities. If she has any ambition she, and perhaps a disguntled FFer and FGer could make a serious movement for themselves. This would be a threat to all three of the main parties (yes three, there is a reason that stuff about abortion is hidden the wrong side of Labour's Irish language policy).

FF need to re-establish their credance as a party mindful of the moderation of he half of the Irish people who go to mass every week. Cowen appears to know the score in this regard but I would be concerned about Lenihan staying in Justice to long.

The rest of your article is tripe.

FF have proven that no matter how hard the IT tries, they can't manipulate democracy. FF have proven tht you can win an election in the face of a howling gale of negetive publicit by simply doing the populist thing-governing sensably with the national interest always in mind. That sells well in the doorstep.

BTW, Corruptedness-Did you make that up?

Yeah, I did. Good, innit?

There's no need to be throwing words like 'tripe' around. On a Sunday morning too.

Kathy Sinnott is a good and genuine person but your scenario is quite frankly, delusional. Everytime she puts her head over the parapet accusations of 'extreme right winger' are thrown at her because of her membership of the Indpendent Group in the EU. Her stance on abortion is hugely unpopular. Fianna Fail have treated her despicably what is more - in fact they are savagely vindictive about her for showing them up for the ruthless chauvinists they are. They will unleash their worst on her again as soon as she pops into view. Also, her stance on abortion is problematic - the statistics suggest that possibly a majority of Irish women of child bearing age have had one at one time or another. She is brilliant and principled on environment and social welfare issues - but there again that flies directly in the face of the neo-con cabal that have taken our country from us by stealth these last 15 years or more. Social and/or moral conscience - whether of the left or right - is the enemy of everything that Ireland is now about.

The brutal economic reality of all this is about to be brought home to us and it's not going to be pleasant. All the self-congratulation and foolish abandonment of proper government during the boom years will become apparent. At the same time, there is a huge demographic shift under way. FF is still largely populated at parliamentary level by what is really the last of the post war generation. Their mindset and perspective is not capable of understanding the world view held by the up and coming generation of voters. We are a much less deferential lot than our parents - less willing to be told what is good for us - a lot more assertive and far less insular. FF is still saturated with little Irelanders who seem to imagine that things like climate change and war somehow have nothing to do with them. The paternalism and condescencion of Fianna Fail is offensive to us too - an often remarked arrogance which the party nevertheless does nothing about - it seems helpless in this regard. Too manu aging and chauvinist middle class men, perhaps.

[Defeated Romanticist]

My jaw steadily went downward until I heard a crack.

Charachterising your enemy as some naferious God squaddie only works when they are small and not media friendly. Kathy Sinnot and her views represent a very large portion of the Irish electorate and she has a teflon coating an inch thick.

As for your second paragraph, I can only conclude that you don't know the nature of your enemy and are divorced from relality.

[rockyracoon]

Mariella, I'd agree with your sentiments entirely if modern circumstances and this past election didn't prove otherwise. FF have proven themselves very adept at manipulating the changing socio-economic climate to their advantage. It is becoming increasingly clear that our society/culture is fracturing into ever smaller sub groups. Many, if not most of us, no longer broadly identify ourselves with a class, political party, a church or even the local community. Alienation and apathy have become, imo, the dominant hallmark of western socities. If we do identify with any grouping, it usually narrowly focused (say, for example, the anti-hunting lobby) which usually has an agenda that people may have an opinion on but which does not impinge on the broad political arena. These lobbies act as a sort of side show to detract from the underlying policies which are altering our society to the advantage of the few.

While FF do, of course, have an older core membership which almost blindly follows any policy course set by the party, they also use the media to professionally manipulate the floating voter. They, imo, can rely on the base instincts of the population to gather votes. If times are good they appeal to greed. If times may be becoming dicey, they appeal to their fears. Witness the last election which, imo, was won on fears that the economy might be heading into troubled waters and only FF were competent to manage the economy. This message, allied with their core support, effectively swung the floating vote in large numbers to FF in the last week of the campaign. (As an aside, FF also masterfully out manouvred FG pre and post election.)

[ballot stuffer]

To rob a quote from Bill Clinton, "It's the economy, stupid"

FF have staked their claim on the economy. People have jobs, for the most part feel they are far better off than they have been in years.

With things starting to turn in the economy the opposition will do well to attack the wastage in the public sector and the money poorly spent by Fianna Fail.
Fianna Fail have managed to brush off almost all critisim leveled at them but the economy will be the one that will stick. Its the only thing that has kept them in power this long.

[Mariella Froster]

My jaw steadily went downward until I heard a crack.

Charachterising your enemy as some naferious God squaddie only works when they are small and not media friendly. Kathy Sinnot and her views represent a very large portion of the Irish electorate and she has a teflon coating an inch thick.

As for your second paragraph, I can only conclude that you don't know the nature of your enemy and are divorced from relality.

DR, you really must learn to read what is set down and not be jumping to conclusions that are nowhere justified by anything I said. I did not say that K Sinnott is a 'God squaddie' - I said, and take your time with this now, she is portrayed in this way be her detractors and it has caused her a lot of difficulty in the past. It is my opinion that they will try to do so again. In point of fact Sinnott experienced a significant backlash in the media in the lead up to the national and EU elections in which she ran. Left-wing opponents of the Treaty, eg, will not be seen on the same platform as Kathy. The media has an agenda that is very often divorced from anything the public may believe - grassroots popularity doesn't necessarily cut ice with them. Media serves power, not people, by and large. All of the Irish media is pro EU - everyone opposing the treaty will be rubbished as an extremist of one kind or another.

Sinnott is of course well aware of all of this herself and has as you say developed a sense of humour and irony about it.

Your last remark is really too silly for words - from that and your obviously inability to understand the plain meaning of what is being said to you - as illustrated above - it might be better if you didn't trouble this thread any more? If you do want to discuss this, and suggest why you think I am wrong, fine. But don't come on here just to be insulting. I'm obliged to insult you back and where does that get us? It's boring for everyone else too.

[Dublinguy]

The big worry for FF (and i am torn between wanting FF to be damaged long term and not wanting damage to the country) is that the economy could go seriously south and this will totally damage their "REPUTATION" for being able to manage an economy as people will see they basically screwed up the whole economy for no real benefit....sort of like what happened the Conservatives in the UK.....

[Rebel CNC]

Kathy Sinnott is a bluffer. As any constituent of hers knows, she wouldn't return a call in a lifetime but tell her there's a tv crew or a few reporters in the vicinity and she's there like a whippet!

[Mariella Froster]

Kathy Sinnott is a bluffer. As any constituent of hers knows, she wouldn't return a call in a lifetime but tell her there's a tv crew or a few reporters in the vicinity and she's there like a whippet!

I hold no brief for Sinnott but I know for a fact that this a very unjustified slur. She is by widespread agreement recognised to be the hardest working of any of the EU MPs and is astoundingly generous with her time. Hundreds of people would attest to that. She scarcely has a moment to herself and does all this work on top of family commitments that would humble people if they knew what they were. Somebody should write her life story. I dont agree with everything she says but she is undeniably a good person and one of - if not the most genuine person in Irish politics