RedC/SBP poll

[KingKane]

I think you're wrong. The debate in Labour will swing once again towards campaigning in the next general election as an independent party. Labour gains nothing from voting pacts with Fine Gael. As a result Fine Gael will most probably lose seats in the next general election as it has at every successive general election since 1973.

Dan, what are you on about? FG gained seats in the 80s and then up and down since.

[The Trinity Politick]

Stable poll for FF, a slight slip was to be expected after the summer that's been.

That wasn't a bad poll for the PDs, 3%, If they'd gotten 3% in the GE, they would have gotten 4 seats,

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

How can you possibly figure that out?

[KingKane]

I think you're wrong. The debate in Labour will swing once again towards campaigning in the next general election as an independent party. Labour gains nothing from voting pacts with Fine Gael. As a result Fine Gael will most probably lose seats in the next general election as it has at every successive general election since 1973.

Agreed, and there's quite a few elder lemons in FG nearing retirement age (I can think of 10 off the top of my head). You can already see Labour putting distance between itself and FG and cosying up to SF.

but are they in places where Labour would be best placed to gain?
CSW maybe but I'd say the odds would favour 2 FF 1FG ahead of Labour making that gain.

McGinley, but that a possible SF gain not Labour.

Galway West, more likely Greens 1 or FF 3 than Labour getting two there but FG have enough for a seat even without the McCormack name.

Noonan might step down but Labour are in no shape to get 2 in Limerick East.

Allen and Durkan might step down, but Scully is well placed to take the Durkan seat and Gerry Kelly was close enough that a reasonable retention of Allen's vote would assure us of 1 seat, Kathleen lynch is nowhere close to bringing in a running mate.

[Defeated Romanticist]

[quote=The Trinity Politick]

Stable poll for FF, a slight slip was to be expected after the summer that's been.

That wasn't a bad poll for the PDs, 3%, If they'd gotten 3% in the GE, they would have gotten 4 seats,

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

How can you possibly figure that out?[/quote:2fagvi23]
The PDs got 2.7% in the GE, 3% could have gotten them the 1300 votes they would have needed in Limerick east and the 300 votes that MacDowell needed. If those seats had been saved, we'd have a different govt.

[KingKane]

I think you're wrong. The debate in Labour will swing once again towards campaigning in the next general election as an independent party. Labour gains nothing from voting pacts with Fine Gael. As a result Fine Gael will most probably lose seats in the next general election as it has at every successive general election since 1973.

I'd be inclined towards that scenario myself.. Labour will have no choice but to put as much clear water between itself and FG as possible if it wants to be seen as "Independent" of FG..

and I can't see Gilmore wanting to lead Labour back to the Opposition benches again, given the fate of the last 3 Labour leaders who have done so. Labour will be very open towards a FF coalition as much as a FG one, even if that annoys a certain section of Labour voters.. it won't annoy them all remember.

I think once again, FG's problem lies in the fact, that they really need to be taking FF seats, when it seems that they never really make a large enough dent in the FF total.. By the next election, Independents will be back on the scene citing the Indo's delivering in this Government, and the Greens will be also playing the "more influence as a small party" card.. and usually when this happens.. FG get squeezed

Unless FG find some way, to get FF down into the 35-36% polling region, FF will be the major party in Government again next time out

I agree the target has to be to get FF to 36% and FG to 30% (roughly), I would also say FF will have to get some folks elected in the locals in order to run them as successor candidates later on for the general.

[KingKane]

[quote=Defeated Romanticist][quote="The Trinity Politick":10nq36su]

Stable poll for FF, a slight slip was to be expected after the summer that's been.

That wasn't a bad poll for the PDs, 3%, If they'd gotten 3% in the GE, they would have gotten 4 seats,

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

How can you possibly figure that out?[/quote:10nq36su]
The PDs got 2.7% in the GE, 3% could have gotten them the 1300 votes they would have needed in Limerick east and the 300 votes that MacDowell needed. If those seats had been saved, we'd have a different govt.[/quote:10nq36su]

Only if all that extra 0.3% was concentrated disproportionately in those two areas.

[Ard-Taoiseach]

[quote=Defeated Romanticist][quote="The Trinity Politick":8m6ygmqy]

Stable poll for FF, a slight slip was to be expected after the summer that's been.

That wasn't a bad poll for the PDs, 3%, If they'd gotten 3% in the GE, they would have gotten 4 seats,

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

How can you possibly figure that out?[/quote:8m6ygmqy]
The PDs got 2.7% in the GE, 3% could have gotten them the 1300 votes they would have needed in Limerick east and the 300 votes that MacDowell needed. If those seats had been saved, we'd have a different govt.[/quote:8m6ygmqy]

And would that have meant you joining the Young Progressive Democrats, instead of Ógra Fianna Fáil?

[Defeated Romanticist]

[quote=Ard-Taoiseach][quote="Defeated Romanticist":1f6452ln][quote="The Trinity Politick":1f6452ln]

Stable poll for FF, a slight slip was to be expected after the summer that's been.

That wasn't a bad poll for the PDs, 3%, If they'd gotten 3% in the GE, they would have gotten 4 seats,

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

How can you possibly figure that out?[/quote:1f6452ln]
The PDs got 2.7% in the GE, 3% could have gotten them the 1300 votes they would have needed in Limerick east and the 300 votes that MacDowell needed. If those seats had been saved, we'd have a different govt.[/quote:1f6452ln]

And would that have meant you joining the Young Progressive Democrats, instead of Ógra Fianna Fáil?[/quote:1f6452ln]
It would be wrong of me to speculate, I was becoming more disenchaned with the PDs, their way of doing things and their attitude towards Bertiegate(I believe Bertie is being hounded by the criminals from the Irish Times, I was in a minority) and FF. If anything the re-appointment of Harney(which is why I left) showed me who out of line I was with the PDs' zeitgeist. I've always felt that an active citizen should involve himself with the way the state is run so I joined FF because their basic principles were mine and although I disagree with a lot of what they stand for, I disagree with them less than I do with all other parties

[Ard-Taoiseach]

[quote=Defeated Romanticist][quote="Ard-Taoiseach"0zh8273]

The PDs got 2.7% in the GE, 3% could have gotten them the 1300 votes they would have needed in Limerick east and the 300 votes that MacDowell needed. If those seats had been saved, we'd have a different govt.

And would that have meant you joining the Young Progressive Democrats, instead of Ógra Fianna Fáil?[/quote0zh8273]
It would be wrong of me to speculate, I was becoming more disenchaned with the PDs, their way of doing things and their attitude towards Bertiegate(I believe Bertie is being hounded by the criminals from the Irish Times, I was in a minority) and FF. If anything the re-appointment of Harney(which is why I left) showed me who out of line I was with the PDs' zeitgeist. I've always felt that an active citizen should involve himself with the way the state is run so I joined FF because their basic principles were mine and although I disagree with a lot of what they stand for, I disagree with them less than I do with all other parties[/quote0zh8273]

Righteo, the way you were talking, though, it sounded almost wistful, like the 4 seats would give you a reason for joining YPDs the moment you got into college, hope OFF finds you well, you may be Cathaoirleach in a couple of years!

[hiding behind a poster]

I wonder if we are begining to see a shy Fianna Fáil factor in Irish polls?

Do you mean where the polls under-estimate a party's vote because people are embarassed to admit they're going to vote for that party? If so, you could be right. When the media demonise a party over a prolonged period, that often happens. The best example is the Conservatives in the UK in the late 80s and early 90s. There is some evidence that's allready happening here. Only one poll in the last election came close to accurately predicting the FF vote. If memory serves me right, the last poll in the May election, taken just a couple of days before it, was a Red C poll that put FF on 38 per cent.

The final polls showed different figures, but they did all pick up the swing to FF that occurred in the final week.