RedC/SBP poll

[DeGaulle]

Party results: FF 40, FG 27, LAB 11, GREEN 7, SF 6, PD 3, OTH 6. The Greens are the big gainers up 2pc to 7pc.

So, after months of massive spreads on the Tribunal and other sniping from the self styled 'Newspaper of record' and posts in a similar vein from its staff writers on this forum, FF and the Greens are a comfortable 9% (NINE PERCENT) ahead of the FG-Labour alternative! Also, the predicted collapse of the Green vote has somehow failed to materialise. How remarkably odd.

Who'd a thunk?

What's WRONG with the people of Ireland? Why won't they LISTEN?

Don't worry, pluralist. It took a year or so for the Labour vote to collapse after they went in with Reynolds. The Green vote will collapse too. Enjoy being a facilitator of corruption while it lasts.

Not so, as it happens the labour poll results reached their lowest point in 1997 two years after they went into government with FG. Now I know that the facts of any situation don’t have a very high standing on a site where wishful thinking is the accepted norm, but there is a line and stating the opposite of what actually happened surely crosses that line.

tonys, you can see from the Irish Opinion Poll Archive at http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/...PA_website.htm
that the Labour vote went from the mid 20s to the mid teens within a year of going in with FF. I think it is reasonable to call a 40% drop in support a collapse.

[Eddiepops]

Which bit?

I just think you're chasing up the wrong tree entirely. If Ahern is forced to resign, Cowen takes over as leader, big deal.

This is where we differ. And where Labour and the greens seem to differ since June. I don't care about electoral benefit. Yes, Cowen will take over. Yes, FF will still be in Government. But the point is that a man I believe to be corrupt, and a man that has been proved to have behaved inappropriately, will not be taoiseach. And that might not mean much to you, but as I say, that's the difference between Labour and the post-June Greens.

I don't agree with pluralist, and in fairness to qtman and himself, they do not purport to portray party stances, merely their own, so please take their statements (and mine) as such. If the Taoiseach was guilty of those charges I'd expect him to resign, and if he didn't I'd vote for us to pull out.

[Keith-M]

[quote=The Trinity Politick]

So the biggest change in these polls is that there is no change?

Not a single change from the election. Apparently people have voted in May and have yet to dip back into politicial mode[/quote:da642id3]


Hardly a surprise given the lack of any major political stories in the last four months. Nothing new has come out of the Tribunal that wasn't already in the media and the Shannon-Heathrow story was only a column filler.

[MartinM]

Which bit?

I just think you're chasing up the wrong tree entirely. If Ahern is forced to resign, Cowen takes over as leader, big deal.

This is where we differ. And where Labour and the greens seem to differ since June. I don't care about electoral benefit. Yes, Cowen will take over. Yes, FF will still be in Government. But the point is that a man I believe to be corrupt, and a man that has been proved to have behaved inappropriately, will not be taoiseach. And that might not mean much to you, but as I say, that's the difference between Labour and the post-June Greens.

I don't agree with pluralist, and in fairness to qtman and himself, they do not purport to portray party stances, merely their own, so please take their statements (and mine) as such. If the Taoiseach was guilty of those charges I'd expect him to resign, and if he didn't I'd vote for us to pull out.

It's not about whether he is 'guilty'. It's that he has repeatedly failed to explain satisfactorily his receipt of enormous sums of cash when he was Minister for Finance. Even if there were an innocent explanation, which at this stage seems incredible, his obfuscations and half truths have done enormous damage to the office of Taoiseach and the credibility of the public service in general. The faustian pact that the Greens seem to be set on - a little corruption at the top of public life is ok if we get our climate change agenda - damages your party (as one that styled itself as being driven by principles rather than a desire for power) and in the long run damages us all.

[PatMcL]

Sinn Fein - Maybe, just maybe, Adams might start to consider thinking about contemplating stepping down.

Gerry Adams has an important job to do in the six counties ensuring that the new arrangements establish themselves. There is the new policing structures and his strong leadership is important at this time. The other work in the 6 counties and includes making sure all the new political powersharing institutions work. Its important to have someone of his authority in position still as things are still bedding in up there in the six counties.

Sinn Féin increased their number of elected reps (if you aggregate TDs and MLAs) this year. Sinn Féin increased its number of votes on aggregate.

Yes, absolutely and undoubtedly. The problem is his political standing isnt seen as very good down here for whatever reason. I always wondered why he didnt take the deputy First Minister post himself.

Because under the IRA Constitution he is considered to be President of the Republic and to accept any other post would be repugnant to the IRA Constitution. They have'nt gone away you know!

What IRA constitution is this? Can you prove this is actually the case or are you simply b*ll************************ting?

[KingKane]

It is about as you were for the big 3
Fianna Fail, 40 per cent; would be happy enough given how low they went at times in the RED C polls
Fine Gael, 27 per cent; this is about the high end of where FG were in the RED C numbers so on concerns for FG in this number
Labour, 11 per cent; a real curates egg, not very high, but a significant enough gap back to SF and the Greens.

SF would have to somewhat disappointed though not surprised, they can't paint the election results as purely down to the campaign becoming a contest between alternative choices for Taosieach. Their support has ebbed, slowly but steadily over the last 2 years.
Sinn Fein,6 per cent;

A boost, though they have been polling around this figure for a good while. What they would have to guard against is that their national poll could up and yet lose seats if any drops were localised. Still I would think the Greens would take some comfort from the lack of a flight of support.
Greens,7 per cent;

Neither here nor there for the PDs, neither damned nor saved.
Progressive Democrats, 3 per cent;

Others are down from what was a pretty steady 9/10% over the course of the last Dail.
others, 6 per cent

[PatMcL]

This tells us that Sinn Féin have consolidated their vote.

Eah...?

Third, Sinn Féin are in the business of sustainable vote growth not flash in the pan type vote increase.

Eah...?

you've been up and down like yo-yos in the last year and barely broken the 10% mark more that what, twice?

On point 1. Yes, Sinn Féin have consolidated. There is not statistically significant drop in these figures.

On point 2. You are also wrong to say "yoyo". In each and every like for like election (e.g. comparing one general election with the previous one) Sinn Féin have increased both its absolute number of votes and its share of the vote. Thats no yoyo cookiemonster thats steady upward progression.

I must say factual- in fairness to cookiemonster, he is correct.

SF have risen above the 10% line before in a SBP poll (2005 i think...) but have since fallen back to the 6-8% level.

I honestly believe that what SF need is new leadership before it can rise again.

As you use the FG moniker one can assume you have a relationship with that party. Before you hand out advice to other parties I suggest you deal with the obvious faults in your own ranks. It is quite clear that FG will never again achieve power in this country with Enda Kenny in charge of that party. I honestly believe FG needs a change in leadership before it can be considered a serious player for government.

[Apparatchik]

/quote]

As you use the FG moniker one can assume you have a relationship with that party. Before you hand out advice to other parties I suggest you deal with the obvious faults in your own ranks. It is quite clear that FG will never again achieve power in this country with Enda Kenny in charge of that party. I honestly believe FG needs a change in leadership before it can be considered a serious player for government.

If you're a totem for a political movement, like Mitterrand say, you might get away with leading the opposition for a decade. That won't wash in Kenny's case and he knows it. The barbarians may not yet be visible at the gates and he can still exit with dignity. He's put in a decent show and the best interests of the party and democracy demand that he now steps aside.

[kerrynorth]

Sinn Fein - Maybe, just maybe, Adams might start to consider thinking about contemplating stepping down.

Gerry Adams has an important job to do in the six counties ensuring that the new arrangements establish themselves. There is the new policing structures and his strong leadership is important at this time. The other work in the 6 counties and includes making sure all the new political powersharing institutions work. Its important to have someone of his authority in position still as things are still bedding in up there in the six counties.

Sinn Féin increased their number of elected reps (if you aggregate TDs and MLAs) this year. Sinn Féin increased its number of votes on aggregate.

Yes, absolutely and undoubtedly. The problem is his political standing isnt seen as very good down here for whatever reason. I always wondered why he didnt take the deputy First Minister post himself.

Because under the IRA Constitution he is considered to be President of the Republic and to accept any other post would be repugnant to the IRA Constitution. They have'nt gone away you know!

What IRA constitution is this? Can you prove this is actually the case or are you simply b*ll************************ting?

The Green Book!

[The Trinity Politick]

This tells us that Sinn Féin have consolidated their vote.

Eah...?

Third, Sinn Féin are in the business of sustainable vote growth not flash in the pan type vote increase.

Eah...?

you've been up and down like yo-yos in the last year and barely broken the 10% mark more that what, twice?

On point 1. Yes, Sinn Féin have consolidated. There is not statistically significant drop in these figures.

On point 2. You are also wrong to say "yoyo". In each and every like for like election (e.g. comparing one general election with the previous one) Sinn Féin have increased both its absolute number of votes and its share of the vote. Thats no yoyo cookiemonster thats steady upward progression.

I must say factual- in fairness to cookiemonster, he is correct.

SF have risen above the 10% line before in a SBP poll (2005 i think...) but have since fallen back to the 6-8% level.

I honestly believe that what SF need is new leadership before it can rise again.

As you use the FG moniker one can assume you have a relationship with that party. Before you hand out advice to other parties I suggest you deal with the obvious faults in your own ranks. It is quite clear that FG will never again achieve power in this country with Enda Kenny in charge of that party. I honestly believe FG needs a change in leadership before it can be considered a serious player for government.

Its posters like you that continue to make fools of yourselves with your attitudes. If you want to talk about the FG leadership, start a thread on it (again). The post i left was in response to a side discussion on Sinn Fein. Im perfectly entitled to give my opinion on that matter.

If you want to live in a cabal, by all means. The rest of us will discuss what we want, when we want.