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  1. #171
    DON DAVERN DON DAVERN is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by spidermom View Post
    N

    No he's referring to kebabs alright NOT Brian. Conor did not live in Dublin South West...but almost moved into the constituency prior to his election!
    C Lenihan has lived in Dublin South West since 1995 and represented the constituency for 14 years. He never moved or shagged of to another constituency to date.
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  2. #172
    darach darach is offline

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    I think ultimately C. Lenihan would have a better chance of gaining the seat were he to run as opposed to David McGuinness who would not poll well at all in Castleknock which was very much Lenihan ground. McGuinness did well to gain a seat in the Mulhuddart electoral ward, a largely working class area but doesn't seem to have a wide appeal across the constituency nor much of a profile.

    One of the problems here for Martin and for FF is that there is a choice now between the candidate who would probably fare better and the candidate who seems to fall more in line with the concept of progressive poltics. While I qould rather someone else being in McGuinness' position, on the face of it he fits the bill, he's educated, young and only in politics since 2009. However, Conor does represent the old Lenihan lineage which many still have affection and respect for. He wouldn't be a bad addition to the Opposition benches either.
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  3. #173
    hammer hammer is offline
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    FFS Clueless.

    Conor hasn`t a f........prayer of taking the seat.
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  4. #174
    jackryan jackryan is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by darach View Post
    I think ultimately C. Lenihan would have a better chance of gaining the seat were he to run as opposed to David McGuinness who would not poll well at all in Castleknock which was very much Lenihan ground. McGuinness did well to gain a seat in the Mulhuddart electoral ward, a largely working class area but doesn't seem to have a wide appeal across the constituency nor much of a profile.

    One of the problems here for Martin and for FF is that there is a choice now between the candidate who would probably fare better and the candidate who seems to fall more in line with the concept of progressive poltics. While I qould rather someone else being in McGuinness' position, on the face of it he fits the bill, he's educated, young and only in politics since 2009. However, Conor does represent the old Lenihan lineage which many still have affection and respect for. He wouldn't be a bad addition to the Opposition benches either.
    Very true, I'd say MM would prefer a more solid member for his frontbench, as regards Conors chances, well Bye elections are a funny old thing,
    first off people like to give the gov a kick doesn't mean that they'll vote them out though.
    Secondly, internal party issues arise, as in do Burton, Varadakar really want a TD who is working their ass off on the ground while they are busy in cabinate?
    thirdly personal votes especially in regard to JH, he ain't getting any younger so this will be a big test as to whether the SP has a future without him, the vote here will be interesting?
    fourthly SF has been seen as a possible winner by some, it will be difficult, not impossible DL won in CSC and DSC bye elections in early 90's but they had established locally known names running for them, and tarnsfers could be a problem as in will Labour or even SP people transfer to them?

    So who will win?
    Well funny enough Conor has the name recognition, he has the sympathy factor and all other parties have difficulties I would not write him off!!
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  5. #175
    drjimryan2 drjimryan2 is offline

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    must agree, bye-elections can be funny things alright....

    no matter what you are told, no sitting td is ever overly concerned with the success of his/her potential 'rival/running mate'........

    dont write conor off...just yet!
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  6. #176
    jackryan jackryan is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjimryan2 View Post
    must agree, bye-elections can be funny things alright....

    no matter what you are told, no sitting td is ever overly concerned with the success of his/her potential 'rival/running mate'........

    dont write conor off...just yet!
    And add in no FF runner in pres election so all resources to the bye-election!
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  7. #177
    drjimryan2 drjimryan2 is offline

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    martins ability/willingness to 'mobilise' the troops, so to speak, will be the story of the by and indeed a sign of things to come in 2014 or not....
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  8. #178
    jo9jo jo9jo is offline
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    Conor will win the seat...end of
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  9. #179
    darach darach is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by jackryan View Post
    And add in no FF runner in pres election so all resources to the bye-election!
    This could turn out to be very true alright, there is already talk among FF members as to that upcoming election. The party will be eager to hold on to at least one Dublin seat, I certainly think that it will be a tough task, though not impossible. I do not believe that FG, Lab or SF will take the seat. SP's Ruth Coppinger will poll well around Mulhuddart, Corduff and the surrounding areas and that will combine to make a large working class left vote with SF's Donnelly and Lab Nulty. However, I think the biggest threat for each candidate here and in particular Conor, is a well known Independent figure coming out of the shadows.
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  10. #180
    jackryan jackryan is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by darach View Post
    This could turn out to be very true alright, there is already talk among FF members as to that upcoming election. The party will be eager to hold on to at least one Dublin seat, I certainly think that it will be a tough task, though not impossible. I do not believe that FG, Lab or SF will take the seat. SP's Ruth Coppinger will poll well around Mulhuddart, Corduff and the surrounding areas and that will combine to make a large working class left vote with SF's Donnelly and Lab Nulty. However, I think the biggest threat for each candidate here and in particular Conor, is a well known Independent figure coming out of the shadows.
    Well that Indo would want to come out of the shadows fast!! and start doing the ground work! bye elections are not won in the shadows ?
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