Black hole in FF economic policy

[BarryW]

The other thread(s) didn't pick up on this, and I didn't want it to get muddled up in there, so here's a dedicated one:

There seems to be an ENORMOUS black hole in the FF economic/spending plans announced today, on 3 fronts.

1) Planned increase in Government spending

FF have said that public spending will grow at an average of 6% over the next 5 years. This compares with 13% last year, and 11% since 1997.

How on earth are they going to slash public spending growth by half, and still shell out €5 billion p.a. for the 53 promises?

2) FF tax cut costings differ from Dept. of Finance costings to the tune of €235 million per annum.

FF costings v DOF costings

Marginal cut - €155 million v €211 million (per annum)
Standard cut - €411 million v €512 million
PRSI for self-empl. - €202 million v €220 million
PRSI for employees €660 million v €720 million

3) The figure for the Exchequer Balance are far more optimistic in todays FF document than they were in the Budget

http://www.budget.gov.ie/2007/downlo...dgetTables.pdf

Compare the figures in the FF policy with the figures here....


FF have some serious questions to answer - it looks as if someone has gotten their sums badly wrong, or else the numbers are being deliberately massaged.

So mych for stability and prudence.........

[Sidewinder]

They're also assuming real GDP growth of 4.5% per annum for the next 5 years. That's 9.6% nominal at current CPI.........even the most optimistic economists are only seeing 4% nominal for 2008....

The numbers don't add up, don't make sense, and are the exact opposite of "prudent"...

[The Trinity Politick]

Its called bulls1itting. Its gas. You'd nearly want them to get back in to let the people who vote for them really see the BS they're coming out with now.

Just nearly....

[rover]

the irish times seem to think the ff policy was very prudent

they obviously didnt look at these figures!!

[Salthill]

Or maybe they didn't look at the figures through the filter of the FG spin machine?

Key question for FG is, having attacked these as over-optimistic, will they be producing more conservative forecasts on Thursday?