FG Stamp duty policy to threaten 1,000s of jobs - Cowen

[the-analyst2007]

CorkHurler said:

Implementation of these measures would result in a repeat of the catastrophic 80's experience of recession, repossession and redundancy that FG / Lab inflicted on the country.

Ever heard of the infamous FF manifesto of 1977 -sold to the country by Cork man Jack Lynch- which was the cause of the problems of the late 1970s and 80s. Ever heard of 21% interest rates under FF in 1981. Ever heard of the emigration of 150,000 under FF 1987-89. Ever consider the resultant savings in Dole payments which helped Mc Sherry bring the public finances into balance. Ever heard of Tallaght Strategy.

Here, Here.

And to add a little more. The 1987 General Election was fought by FF on the grounds of not introducing the proposed FG austere budget. While today FF have the slogan "The Way Forward", back in '87 the country was plastered with FF billboards that went: "Budget Cuts hurt the old, the sick & and the mentally handicapped".

When the Dail returned after the GE, FF were a few seats short of a majority. FG Leader Alan Dukes decided to support a minority FF Goverment on one condition: that the FG Austere Budget be introduced. And so it was. Yes, those cuts were severe, but they put an end to the cycle of spending and higher taxation that resulted from the FF 1977 election manifesto.

Alan Dukes - a true patriot.

[EvotingMachine0197]

Great!

Every time Cowen makes hysterical and unfounded attacks on FG policy, which are at odds with the opinions of the experts, it guarantees more publicity for our popular Stamp Duty policies!

Roll on the next round of attacks from chubbsy!

Jesus Barry, Normal people don't believe that ************************e. Normal people dont give a rats arse about SD, cos they stopped buying. Who would buy in a falling market ??

The whole Fg-Lab SD thing is ridiculous. Watch the FORSALE signs Dude. SD is out of business.

[Skin]

Great!

Every time Cowen makes hysterical and unfounded attacks on FG policy, which are at odds with the opinions of the experts, it guarantees more publicity for our popular Stamp Duty policies!

Which experts would these be? The editorial team of the Sunday Independent??

Personally I'm not sure what 'reforms' FG are proposing can you tell me what the 'reforms' would involve?

Can't name the experts, but the main highlighted points of FG policy are:

- No stamp duty for first time buyers up to €450,000, the duty on payable on the excess above that price
- No stamp duty on the first €100,000 for families moving home, just 3% for the next €350,000, and 9% for the excess over €450,000.

Full speech by Richard Bruton, including stamp duty proposals here:
http://www.finegael.ie/news/index.cfm/t ... nkey/31274

for my part, i don't exactly see how this will threaten 1,000s of jobs. it's sensible reform of an inequitable (but yes, way overhyped) tax.

Unless somebody can actually explain how this reform will destroy our economy, cost 1,000s of jobs, and awaken the Kraken from its murky layer - Cowen doesn't seem to have bothered - then I'm afraid FG partisans and anybody with a halfway balanced viewpoint will see this as a pretty amateurish, hysterical smear.

This is a dreadful policy and shows the desperation of FG to get into power.

Serioulsy are there many first-time buyers buying properties to the value of E450000?? I suspect if this policy gets through that is exactly what will happen as developers reap the rewards ad prices get inflated once more (just what we need)

By definition first-time buyers are trying to get on to an already over-inflated property market. If on the other hand they have 450000 approval from their mortgage provider they are probably in well paid jobs with a bright future and therefore really dont need an assist from the state.
This policy will benefit develpoers and no-one else, it will drive up the price of houses (which are showing remarkable price resistance in the light of falling demand) putting first time buyers further out of the property market, it will spark pay claims reduce house building costing thousands of jobs, and it will ultimately destroy FG (no bad thing).

The second part does not appear to be too unreasonable

[DerekOwens]

Serioulsy are there many first-time buyers buying properties to the value of E450000??

What do you propose the threshold should be?

it will spark pay claims reduce house building costing thousands of jobs, and it will ultimately destroy FG (no bad thing).

How will it spark pay claims? BTW, the last words of that sentence does cast doubt on your bona-fides.

The second part does not appear to be too unreasonable

Speaking as a non-blinkered [I hope] FGer, it's the second part of the policy package that particularly appeals to me.

It's pretty unsettling that once a person goes E1 over the threshold, or into another band, the price of the whole house is taxed rather than just that which is above the threshold.


What bugs me about this statement is that Cowan (and Shane!) are smart enough to know the difference between economics and bar-room abuse.

Cowan's statement, and most of the comments on this thread, fall into the latter. You're the first non-FG poster to actually discuss the proposal on its merits.

[Skin]

Serioulsy are there many first-time buyers buying properties to the value of E450000??

What do you propose the threshold should be?

it will spark pay claims reduce house building costing thousands of jobs, and it will ultimately destroy FG (no bad thing).

How will it spark pay claims? BTW, the last words of that sentence does cast doubt on your bona-fides.

The second part does not appear to be too unreasonable

Speaking as a non-blinkered [I hope] FGer, it's the second part of the policy package that particularly appeals to me.

It's pretty unsettling that once a person goes E1 over the threshold, or into another band, the price of the whole house is taxed rather than just that which is above the threshold.


What bugs me about this statement is that Cowan (and Shane!) are smart enough to know the difference between economics and bar-room abuse.

Cowan's statement, and most of the comments on this thread, fall into the latter. You're the first non-FG poster to actually discuss the proposal on its merits.

The limits should be left alone, it was noticable the last time the limits were raised the number of houses that were deliberaltly left under the threshold in order to avoid the stamp duty in order to attract FT buyers who over the last 15 years have been the most active in the housing market.

By leaving the thresholds as they are it poses a big dilemma for developers. In the Dublin area it is mainly apartments being built, I dont think the target audience is anyone but FT buyers. With increasing interest rates there has been a remarkable slowdown in the market, ultimatley it would be desirable if developers were forced to drop their prices below the threshold for these apartments.

If you lift the threshold to 450000 then a house valued at 390000 plus stamp duty of 351000 will simply become 425100 on the market, a benefit to only the develpors. Also you missed the point about FTB buying properties in the 450000. Are there many?? I doubt it, so why is FG trying to accomadate a tiny minority of FTB to the detriment of the vast majority?

It will spark pay claims by the simple fact that people will (still) no longer be able to buy a home and thus claims for more pay will be inevitable.

[Ponzi]

Opening the stamp duty exemption to second hand homes will be detrimental to the house building industry which employs 1 in 5 of the male population (many of them prospective first time buyers, the intended recipients of FG/Labour largess) as it would divert demand from a sector of the economy that is creating employment and growth. The net economic impact would be a big 0 so a classical bit of political empty handed tokenism.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

All part of Cowen's strategy. He wants FF to lose next election as it will be better for the party organisation and hasten Bertie's exit. Then he becomes leader of the opposition, a role he would relish. Meanwhile, the economy starts to slide. Cowen then says that he told us this stamp duty policy would disrupt the housing market, put thousands of jobs at risk and threaten the value of everyone's house(when that was going to happen anyway) and then he achieves an overall majority in 2011/2012.

[DerekOwens]

If you lift the threshold to 450000 then a house valued at 390000 plus stamp duty of 351000 will simply become 425100 on the market, a benefit to only the develpors. Also you missed the point about FTB buying properties in the 450000. Are there many?? I doubt it, so why is FG trying to accomadate a tiny minority of FTB to the detriment of the vast majority?

To pretend that this will only benefit FTBers buying at 450,000 isn't exactly accurate - it's FTBers under that mark that'll benefit.

It will spark pay claims by the simple fact that people will (still) no longer be able to buy a home and thus claims for more pay will be inevitable.

You're saying that it won't change the situation that exists.

So, it won't so much spark pay claims as... well, not simply magic them away?

[Skin]

If you lift the threshold to 450000 then a house valued at 390000 plus stamp duty of 351000 will simply become 425100 on the market, a benefit to only the develpors. Also you missed the point about FTB buying properties in the 450000. Are there many?? I doubt it, so why is FG trying to accomadate a tiny minority of FTB to the detriment of the vast majority?

To pretend that this will only benefit FTBers buying at 450,000 isn't exactly accurate - it's FTBers under that mark that'll benefit.

You have clearly misunderstood what I was saying. Having a threshold of 450000 for FTB is futile as the vast vast majority of FTB could not afford a house at a price like that. The only people it will benefit is a small minority of FTB who are extemely well paid and dont require state intervention.
You clearly ignore the point that the cost of stamp duty will transfer to the cost of the house thus benefitting the developer. Whereas if stamp duty is left alone the developer has a vested interest in keeping down the price of a house otherwise face detering potential buyers because of increasing rates of stamp duty to the buyer.

It will spark pay claims by the simple fact that people will (still) no longer be able to buy a home and thus claims for more pay will be inevitable.

[quote:27lulixt]You're saying that it won't change the situation that exists.

So, it won't so much spark pay claims as... well, not simply magic them away?

[/quote:27lulixt]
Exactly, I'm not sure where you have been living for the last decade, but there has been what is called a "housing crisis". FG's proposal is to perpetuate that situation by inviting developers to raise prices and ultimatley transfer stamp duty into profits. Stamp duty should be left alone, where an apartment costing 318000 now plus 3% stamp duty equals 327540 for a FTB. So there is a possibilty that a developer may drop the price to 317000 to below the threshold in order to shift the apartment in the face of declining demand. FG's proposal will only mean that the developer will transfer the stamp duty on to the price.

As far as pay claims are concerned maybe I should have been more clear - it will spark more pay claims, but I'm glad you agree with this point.

[qtman]

Great!

Every time Cowen makes hysterical and unfounded attacks on FG policy, which are at odds with the opinions of the experts, it guarantees more publicity for our popular Stamp Duty policies!

Roll on the next round of attacks from chubbsy!

Jesus Barry, Normal people don't believe that ************************e. Normal people dont give a rats arse about SD, cos they stopped buying. Who would buy in a falling market ??

The whole Fg-Lab SD thing is ridiculous. Watch the FORSALE signs Dude. SD is out of business.

If FF were to claim that FG destroyed the housing market by claiming that they were reckless about Stamp Duty, I think they'd find an attentive audience.

As stated, nobody is going to give a sh1t about SD once house prices start falling. All people will want to know then is whose fault it is.