New poll suggests capital backlash for Fianna Fail

[Dubliner]

This story from the Irish Independent, March 23.

What has turned these Dubliners against FF?

New poll suggests capital backlash for Fianna Fail on eve of their Ard Fheis

FIANNA Fail is in danger of losing half a dozen seats in Dublin in the general election.

That is the main conclusion from a new poll showing its current standing in the capital is 32pc - 5pc down on its 2002 showing.

It also shows the Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens are seven points ahead of the outgoing government on combined totals in the capital.

The poll outcome will come as a shock to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as Fianna Fail delegates gather later today for a two-day Ard-Fheis widely regarded as being their general election launch pad.

Such a scale of reverses in the capital - the cockpit of the election - would come as a major setback to Mr Ahern in his ambition to record a three-in-a-row.

In comparison, the poll will give the alternative government renewed hope as all the parties gear up for a tough election campaign. Fine Gael has gained more than 4pc on its poor result in the metropolitan area five years ago and is now on 18pc.

The party has just three seats in the capital, following its disastrous performance five years ago when it lost 23 seats in all and went down to just 31 nationally.

But it is in with a big chance of regaining several of the crucial seats in key Dublin constituencies such as South, South East and South West if it can repeat the performance in this poll on election day.

Fianna Fail could face the prospect of losing a seat in some of the Dublin constituencies in which it currently holds two seats, with potential problems looming in North-East, North-West, North, South-Central and South-West.

The contrasting fortunes for the two largest parties come in a survey conducted by Lansdowne Market Research for today's 'Irish Daily Star'.

And there is continuing good news for the Greens as their upward curve continues following a series of polls showing their fortunes improving throughout the country.

They have a 5pc increase on their figure for 2002 and now stand at 13pc in the capital, the home of five of its six TDs, including leader Trevor Sargent.

Such an increase, if repeated on polling day, gives them realistic chances of reaching double figures.

The outcome of the 47 seats in the 12 Dublin constituencies will go a long way towards deciding whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael heads the next Government.

The poll shows Labour at 14pc, down 1pc in Dublin on 2002. The PDs are also down 1pc to 6pc, Sinn Fein drop 2pc to 7pc while Independents and others are unchanged on 9pc.

While the current Government of Fianna Fail and the PDs totals only 38pc on these figures, the Rainbow of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens outstrips them on 45pc.

The survey was conducted among a sample of 500 adults who say they are likely to vote. The pollsters say the maximum error margin is of 4pc (compared with 3pc on a sample of 1,000).

Gene McKenna

[EamonMechanic]

Workers of Dublin unite !

[Respvblica]

Workers of Dublin unite !

Hush now, the time is yet not come.

[jayblue]

FF have left it to late to improve, reckon the election will be called very shortly soon, the sooner the better to kick this government out of office for good

[WestOfCentre]

Can someone recall a poll last year which predicted a 10% drop in FF support in the capital?

Also how does 32% compare with the 2004 locals in Dublin?

[Clones Road Casual]

FF have left it to late to improve, reckon the election will be called very shortly soon, the sooner the better to kick this government out of office for good

I disagree on this one and nearly every election since the foundation of the state has shown that a substantial shift in support can occur over the campaign.

I'm thinking that with interest rates and continuing high profile job losses that Bertie, though he may still win, is the one who has left it too late.

[President Bartlet]

Once the election is called and the FF electoral machine starts hitting the road and doorstops proper they could probably turn this around

[meriwether]

Once the election is called and the FF electoral machine starts hitting the road and doorstops proper they could probably turn this around

The FF electoral machine is not the great mythical force its made out to be.
Its the biggest one, numbers wise, but a combined FG/Lab is as big.
Itl take more than canvassing.

[galway98]

If we take it at face value and compare to regional three monthly averages from other polls such as MRBI and RED C. It shows FF are up on the locals but down on 2002 general, Sinn Fein are down on locals, Greens are in serious gains territory and Fine Gael are back up on 2002 and locals. If anybody would like to correct me please feel free.

I must put in the following caveat Lansdowne to me are not robust pollers and 500 of a sample for the largest concentration of people in the state is muck.

You cannot poll a million plus without 1,000 of a sample. Carlow/Kilkenny and Wexford were polls of 500 and look at their populations.

Also my undertsanding is that the margin of error on 500 is double that on 1,000 therefore its nearer to six percent.Which means all the parties gains and losses are within the margin of error.
So watch the trend and not the exact figure.

[Eddiepops]

Once the election is called and the FF electoral machine starts hitting the road and doorstops proper they could probably turn this around

The FF electoral machine is not the great mythical force its made out to be.
Its the biggest one, numbers wise, but a combined FG/Lab is as big.
Itl take more than canvassing.

And the Greens' one is bigger than it has ever been. The Young Greens will be hitting Dublin North Central to help Bronwen Maher this weekend for example.