2 More Years now = 2nd term in opposition ?

[NoPropertyTax]

I wonder is anyone in Fianna Fail considering or questioning the stratagy of hanging on for the final 2 years till 2012 ?

I don't think there is any chance at all of any economic turnaroud filtering down to the general public in time. Indeed for the national economy to get any better on paper actually requires the citizens / voters to become a lot poorer. That means that many people will perceive 2011 and 2012 as being years when the recession gets worse.

Hanging on as a lame duck government trying to introduce more deeply unpopular tax rises, charges and cuts will just alienate more people. By then the party will have been in power for 15 years, and by that stage voter hostility will be such, that the party will face a very tough battle trying to get re-elected after just 1 term in opposition. Remember what happened the British Conservatives when they hung on through those last 2 years from 95 to 97. Those last 2 years (the period known as sleaze) created such hostility among voters that they have been punished in opposition for 13 years. Is that whats going to happen Fianna Fail if the party hangs on till 2012 before allowing the people a chance to have their say on whats being done ?

Is nobody in Fianna Fail looking further ahead than the next two years ?

[LDF]

I think being out of government for 2016 must be weighing heavily on the minds of many FF'r. I don't think many FF people would appreciate the sight of Enda standing on the steps of the GPO on Easter Monday 2016.

It is one more reason why I don't believe this govt will make it to 2012.

[Toland]

They will not recover for the next election anyway. Fianna Fáil may even be in terminal decline. I for one hope that that is so.

[derm0t]

The idea of a 2016 centennial with an FG president and an FG Taoiseach must be driving FF up the wall.

Very much agree that a 2011 or 2012 election can only be worse for the soldiers of destiny than 2010.

Things can only get worse.

[Toland]

They are already getting worse.

But a new government with an interest in 'getting' FF would have quite a lot more information available to it than it had in opposition. They would be able to institute statutary inquiries, release documents, provide Dáil committees with government majorities, etc., etc., etc.

On balance, Fianna Fáil are better off staying in government as long as they can get away with. That way, they have half a chance of sitting on the lid of the dustbin that contains the Lost at Sea scandal, etc.

It is, however, only postponing the evil day.

[ibis]

Chicken-counting?

[Toland]

Chicken-counting?

Not really. Speculating legitimately about the future.

Shooting the breeze if you like!

But don't let that stop you being superstitious about such talk putting a hex on the long-hoped-for crash and burn of Fianna Fáil.

[ibis]

Not really. Speculating legitimately about the future.

Shooting the breeze if you like!

But don't let that stop you being superstitious about such talk putting a hex on the long-hoped-for crash and burn of Fianna Fáil.

Yeah - I just recall very well p.ie counting out FF in 2007, and the FG posters speculating on who'd get what Ministry before the election results were in. I'm not sure FF hasn't bottomed out, and that another two years might not see them going up rather than down.

[Toland]

Yeah - I just recall very well p.ie counting out FF in 2007, and the FG posters speculating on who'd get what Ministry before the election results were in. I'm not sure FF hasn't bottomed out, and that another two years might not see them going up rather than down.

Neither am I. But I think we can expect several missiles hitting them between now and then. And they have no room at all for buying the electorate this time.

They have an astounding ability to win elections though. I'm not sure anyone has forgotten that.

[davehiggz]

Difference between British and Irish voters is that British voters don't suffer from long term memory lost. No matter what FF does they're always forgiven by the electorate after only 5 years of FG/Labour.

However this time FG/Labour could have up to 100 seats in the Dáil. That's a strong majority to overturn within one term. If this is the co-alition, it will run for two terms however that's assuming Kenny and Gilmore can get along together at cabinet.

FFers can feel good that they'll probably be re-elected in 2022. Just in time to celebrate the civil war.