Dispelling the Myth of "Eurabia"

[The Riddler]

I can't find the 2006 US Air Force study by Mr Perkowski anywhere that tells us that there are between 15 and 23 million Muslims in the EU

Arab media have said theres 25 to 30 million in the EU







I take they are refering to the EU alone there

But For number for all of Europe outside the EU Including Russia the number is about 50 million

Muammar al-Gaddafi in a speech a few years ago said the number is 50 million

To say that "according to the US's Migration Policy Institute, residents of Muslim faith will account for more than 20 per cent of the EU population by 2050" is inaccurate. What they said was that demographic trends ARE LIKELY to push the figure to over 20%, but they got that figure from another 2005 report (has this journalist been asleep for the last four years?) by Karoly Lorant (mentioned later in the article), who was making extrapolations based on earlier tendencies. He himself said that the scenario of the 20% figure "while it can not be entirely ruled out, seems rather unrealistic". So a situation that the original researcher thinks "unrealistic", becomes "likely" according to the Migration Policy Institute and turns, after four years of ignoring it completely, into simple, hard fact for the Telegraph journalist

When it comes to population predictions it cant be neither proven nor disproven

For the person trying to prove or disprove would have to succesfully use a crystal call for a succesful look into the future

[Pig Destroyer]

Arab media have said theres 25 to 30 million in the EU
I take they are refering to the EU alone there

Out of a total EU population of 500 Million. So 5%.

But For number for all of Europe outside the EU Including Russia the number is about 50 million

50 Million out of 750 Million. That's 6.7%.

When it comes to population predictions it cant be neither proven nor disproven
For the person trying to prove or disprove would have to succesfully use a crystal call for a succesful look into the future

Without the benefit of a crystal ball, I'll hazard a guess that those who now make up 5-6% of the population will not be anywhere near a majority in 20, 30 or 100 years.


On a side note, I think the most fascinating thing to come out of this discussion is...

Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent - Telegraph

The Daily Telegraph referring to Europe as "Our continent"!

[The Riddler]

Out of a total EU population of 500 Million. So 5%.


50 Million out of 750 Million. That's 6.7%.


Without the benefit of a crystal ball, I'll hazard a guess that those who now make up 5-6% of the population will not be anywhere near a majority in 20, 30 or 100 years.


On a side note, I think the most fascinating thing to come out of this discussion is...

The Daily Telegraph referring to Europe as "Our continent"!

Out of a total EU population of 500 Million. So 5%

For specific EU states with falling birth rates and Inward Migration Population trends will be hard to predict

Take germany

Coalition tackles Germany's falling birth rate - Europe - International Herald Tribune

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/14/wo...4891.html?_r=1

German birth rate falls to lowest in Europe

German birth rate falls to lowest in Europe | World news | The Guardian

German Population Plunge “Irreversible,” Federal Stats Office Admits
Expected that one third of all European children will be born to Muslim families by 2025

German Population Plunge “Irreversible,” Federal Stats Office Admits

If the low birth rates trend continues in germany it will hard to tell or make population predictions

Birth rates are also falling in the UK

How falling fertility rates are turning Britain into the old country

How falling fertility rates are turning Britain into the old country | Mail Online

In the UK, the most commonly cited statistic is that by 2010, one in four will be either childfree or childless

BBC NEWS | Europe | The rise of the 'childfree'

THE LEVELS of immigration to the uk

Net immigration has quadrupled since 1997 to 237,000 a year.

A migrant now arrives nearly every minute.

We must build a new home every six minutes for new migrants.

England is already the most crowded country in Europe (except Malta)

Immigration will add 7 million to the population of England in the next 20 years - that is 7 times the population of Birmingham

MigrationWatchUK

Combone the low birth rates if that trend continues with the high levels of Immigration to the the Uk population trends hard to predict

50 Million out of 750 Million. That's 6.7%.

Outside the EU take Russia

the falling birth rates

Russia's population decline is accelerating, according to the country's official statistics agency.

According to their calculations, the decline is equivalent to 100 people dying in Russia every hour.

The subject has received international attention, with the UN warning that Russia's population could fall by a third by the middle of the century

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4125072.stm

In his recent state of the nation address, President Vladimir Putin said the most urgent problem facing Russia is its demographic crisis

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5056672.stm

Russia's new immigration policy will boost the population

http://www.euromonitor.com/Russias_n...the_population

The falling birth rate of native russians with an Immigration policy aimed at boosting the population
it will be hard to make population predictions about Russia

[gnasher]

For specific EU states with falling birth rates and Inward Migration Population trends will be hard to predict

Take germany

If the low birth rates trend continues in germany it will hard to tell or make population predictions

Birth rates are also falling in the UK

THE LEVELS of immigration to the uk

Combone the low birth rates if that trend continues with the high levels of Immigration to the the Uk population trends hard to predict

Outside the EU take Russia

the falling birth rates


The falling birth rate of native russians with an Immigration policy aimed at boosting the population
it will be hard to make population predictions about Russia

The point is that all these doom-laden predictions are based on trends that have already changed. The articles you link to about Germany are three years old. Germany's birth rate has increased from a post-War low in 2005 and across Europe (and in their countries of origin) birth-rates among Muslims have fallen dramatically.

It's the willingness with which many right-wing commentators seize on any data that suggests that the Muslim population will increase dramatically that makes me suspicious. The article from the Telegraph you link to above is a perfect example- though published this week, the data it uses and misquotes are four years out of date and the fact that current trends are significantly different is of no account to the journalist whatsoever. The person who did the original research says that a Muslim population of 20% by 2050 is "unrealistic". By the time its passed through the Telegraph hype-filter it's become a cold hard fact.

Blame the PC-left for not panicking enough about this, is the message, regardless of whether or not there's anything worth panicking about. Blame them for the rise of right-wing parties in parts of Europe, because, God knows, it couldn't be endless idiotic fact-free articles about the threat of Eurabia that are heightening tension, could it?

Let's see if you have an answer for this that DOESN'T involve a whole load of links to stuff on YouTube, by the way. I don't think you're up to this debate.

[Garibaldy]

A recent BBC article also debunked some of these myths

BBC NEWS | UK | Magazine | Debunking a YouTube hit

In addition, that Daily Telegraph article referred to above about a demographic timebomb is nonsense, full of misrepresentations and elisions, especially in suggesting that all migrants are Muslims. Which is nonsense.

[The Riddler]

The articles you link to about Germany are three years old.

I googled recent articles on Birth rates in germany

German birth rate continues to decline

German birth rate continues to decline | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 29.07.2009

Fewer German women are having children, particularly in west

Fewer German women are having children, particularly in west : Health

German Women Increasingly Childless, Government Statistics Show

German Women Increasingly Childless, Government Statistics Show - Bloomberg.com

The new article in the telegraph

A fifth of European Union will be Muslim by 2005 - Telegraph

PS by the way Gnasher I reported two of your of your posts from another thread about you making false claims have been contacted by a moderator about it?

[The Riddler]

A recent BBC article also debunked some of these myths

BBC NEWS | UK | Magazine | Debunking a YouTube hit

In addition, that Daily Telegraph article referred to above about a demographic timebomb is nonsense, full of misrepresentations and elisions, especially in suggesting that all migrants are Muslims. Which is nonsense.

The myths or predictions cant neither be proven nor disproven

as the bbc and that youtube video can neither predict what the world will be like by 2050

No more then this recent article

Russian TV recently claimed that Beijing has drawn up a secret plan. According to this top-secret blueprint, China is determined to grab back Russia's remote, but vast, far east region

Russia fears embrace of giant eastern neighbour, China | World news | The Observer

The Russian tv claim can neither be proven nor disproven no more then that youtube video be proven or disproven

[Garibaldy]

The myths or predictions cant neither be proven nor disproven

as the bbc and that youtube video can neither predict what the world will be like by 2050

No more then this recent article



Russia fears embrace of giant eastern neighbour, China | World news | The Observer

The Russian tv claim can neither be proven nor disproven no more then that youtube video be proven or disproven

The myths that make outlandish and false claims about the proportion of Muslims today can and have been disproven. And the falacious tactics behind them can also be exposed. Such as the implicit assumption that all migration is Muslim.

[The Riddler]

The myths that make outlandish and false claims about the proportion of Muslims today can and have been disproven. And the falacious tactics behind them can also be exposed. Such as the implicit assumption that all migration is Muslim.

it cant be disproven as it cant be predicted whether or not Turkey gains EU membership

it cant be predicted what the birth rates for native Europeans will be like in next 20 years

[gnasher]

I googled recent articles on Birth rates in germany

PS by the way Gnasher I reported two of your of your posts from another thread about you making false claims have been contacted by a moderator about it?

Yeah, me too.

The Telegraph article provides no factual sources for its claim, other than mentioning "forecasts", "data gathered from various sources" and "experts". Given the journalist's inability to correctly read the research that he himself cites in the longer article above, there's little to worry about here.

The person who actually did the research regarded the extrapolated figure of one-fifth Muslim as "unrealistic" when he published his paper in 2005. Why The Telegraph are suddenly deciding to make a song-and-dance about a four-year-old study that they've misread, is anybody's guess.

What's your country of origin, by the way? You don't write English like a native speaker. Apologies if I'm insulting your literacy.