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Thread: German economy may contract by as much as 7.5%: Times

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    German economy may contract by as much as 7.5%: Times

    Germany is not going to be in any position to bail anyone out which makes it all the more imperative that we get on with sorting out our own mess. What is interesting is that the article speculates that Germany, a country of 80million, may need to borrow €70billion to fund its deficit which puts Ireland's €20billion for a population of 4million into some perspective. We are nuts in this country if we think that we can borrow this kind of figure into the future.

    Plus if Germany is going to slide anything like 7.5% then I cannot see Ireland sliding into anything less than a full scale depression with a 10%+ decline. It also brings into question as to who is going to fund the EU where its funding is a mix of custom duties (all down) and a complicated formula using consumer sales as its base (collapsing Europe wide). Who is going to fund the CAP in these circumstances?
    Analysts predict German economy will shrink 7.5% - The Irish Times - Thu, Mar 26, 2009

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    Politics.ie Regular Ramon21's Avatar
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    Germany is a export based country, so of course this would happen.
    But probably around the end of 2009 the economy will starting to pick up.
    In 2010 we will be sitting good again, exports will begin to rise again.
    Still, even as the investor consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar. Last year, as China's central bank chief called for a new global currency and Russian central bankers dumped greenbacks to buy euros, many saw the dollar's decline as inevitable. Now, the dollar is riding high, and the euro looks bedraggled.

    "Views might change very quickly"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramon21 View Post
    Germany is a export based country, so of course this would happen.
    But probably around the end of 2009 the economy will starting to pick up.
    In 2010 we will be sitting good again, exports will begin to rise again.
    And where will they be exporting to?.. Where are the massive markets for German goods?.
    Beware of fearful masters

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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    The strong euro will exacerbate the problem by making their exports more expensive in non-eurozone markets.

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    U.K. Bond Auction Fails for First Time Since 2002 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

    Germany said today it wants to borrow 346 billion euro this year. fat chance.

    This is great news. It is the end of the welfare state and hopefully the end of the EU as well. A shower of wasters that nobody can afford

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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
    The strong euro will exacerbate the problem by making their exports more expensive in non-eurozone markets.
    Hence, expect competitive devaluation of the euro quite soon.

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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    I don't think it's the end as such. My hope, however, is that at least in Ireland, it will mark the end of universalist-welfare, which we simply cannot afford - still less justify. This crisis began with the Left claiming vindication of their ideology - particularly with respect to State-ownership. However, as time has gone on, it has become increasingly clear that the economic-right has been vindicated on the unsustainability of universalism and large public-sectors.

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    Politics.ie Regular Pauli's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngdan View Post
    U.K. Bond Auction Fails for First Time Since 2002 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

    Germany said today it wants to borrow 346 billion euro this year. fat chance.

    This is great news. It is the end of the welfare state and hopefully the end of the EU as well. A shower of wasters that nobody can afford
    A tad harsh, youngdan, about an economy that actually makes high quality goods and exports them. While I agree with your sentiment about the welfare industry in Germany, other economies(for example, Ireland's) based purely on horsecrap, deserve to be put to the sword sooner than that of Germany.

    The US, the UK and Ireland, these are the real wasters that deserve the ultimate kick in the gonads.
    Fianna Fail - The Loss of Sovereignty Party.

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    Politics.ie Regular Ramon21's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngdan View Post
    U.K. Bond Auction Fails for First Time Since 2002 (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

    Germany said today it wants to borrow 346 billion euro this year. fat chance.

    This is great news. It is the end of the welfare state and hopefully the end of the EU as well. A shower of wasters that nobody can afford
    Your from america? please keep you comments for you if you are.
    Still, even as the investor consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar. Last year, as China's central bank chief called for a new global currency and Russian central bankers dumped greenbacks to buy euros, many saw the dollar's decline as inevitable. Now, the dollar is riding high, and the euro looks bedraggled.

    "Views might change very quickly"

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    Politics.ie Regular Pauli's Avatar
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    I believe youngdan is from Ireland and lives in America. Boston I believe. And his comments are as valid as those of anyone else on this forum. So he is as entitled as anyone else to air them.
    Fianna Fail - The Loss of Sovereignty Party.

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