Analysis of the latest opinion poll of 15 February (https://n3.noties.nl/peil.nl/) regarding Dutch voter intentions shows that there will be significant changes in the composition of its MEPs at the 2009 European Parliament elections.

Dutch voting for both its national parliament elections and its European Parliament elections is completely proportionate and on the basis that the whole country is a single constituency. The Netherlands has 27 MEPs in the current European Parliament but that will reduce to 25 at the 2009 European Parliament elections.

Below are the latest percentage support figures for each of the Dutch political parties, together with the percentage support of each at the 2004 European parliament elections.

PRO-LISBON
Christian Democratic Appeal (similar to Fine Gael) 2004: 24% Opinion Poll: 18%
Labour Party 2004: 24% Opinion Poll: 15%
Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) (similar to PDs) 2004: 13% Opinion Poll: 13%
Green-Left 2004: 7% Opinion Poll: 7%
ChristenUnie-SGP 2004: 6% Opinion Poll: 5%
Democrats '66 (left-wing liberal) 2004: 4% Opinion Poll: 11%
Proud of the Netherland (right-wing anti-immigration) 2004: N/A Opinion Poll: 1%

ANTI-LISBON
LEFT-WING
Socialist Party 2004: 7% Opinion Poll: 11%
RIGHT-WING
Party for Freedom (PVV) 2004: N/A Opinion Poll: 17%
OTHER
Party for the Animals 2004: 3% Opinion Poll: 1%

(Note 1: Most Dutch opinion polls show figures in terms of the number of seats in the national parliament that a particular party would win, but as there are 150 seats in the national parliament the percentage support is easily determined by reducing by 33.3%.)

(Note 2: The views of the different Dutch political parties on the Lisbon Treaty are set out here: citron-vert.info/IMG/doc/DutchLowerHouseJune27th_07_2_.doc)

There is as yet no information as to whether Libertas will be campaigning in The Netherlands in the 2009 European Parliament election and, if so, who will be on their list.

What is clear, however, is that Geert Wilders's right-wing anti-Lisbon Party for Freedom will win votes, tapping into the same constituency previously targeted by the assassinated Pim Fortuyn. With support in the region of 17%, the Party for Freedom can expect to have 4-5 MEPs elected. The left-wing anti-Lisbon Socialist Party can expect to increase the number of their MEPs from 2 to 3.

By contrast, the number of MEPs from The Netherlands three governing parties, the Christian Democratic Appeal, the Labour Party and ChristenUnie will almost half, falling from 15 to about 9.

In the 2004 European Parliament election, a list called European Transparency, led by former EU auditor Paul van Buitenen won nearly 10% of the Dutch vote and had two MEPs elected (one of them Mr van Buitenen). European Transparency was not Eurosceptic and has since been wound up and will not stand again in 2009. However, it is clear that it tapped into some latent Eurocritical views in The Netherlands and it is voters with these views who may be the target of Libertas.