European Elections Predictions for Ireland

[setanta]

First pass from myself:

DUBLIN: 1 PES (de Rossa), 1 EPP-ED (Mitchell), 1 UEN (Ryan)
EAST: 1 PES (Childers), 1 EPP-ED (McGuiness), 1 UEN (Aylward)
SOUTH: 1 EPP-ED (Burke), 1 UEN (Crowley) and either 1 PES (Kelly) or 1 IND/DEM (Sinnot)
NORT-WEST: 1 EPP-ED (Higgins), 1 UEN (Ó Neachtain), 1 ALDE (Harkin)
NORTERN IRELAND: 1 DUP (Dodds), 1 EPP-ED (Nicholson) and either 1 PES (Maginness) or 1 GUE/NGL (de Brún)

Final Tally:

EPP-ED: 5 seats
UEN: 4 seats
PES: min 2 seats, max 4 seats
ALDE: 1 seat
GUE/NGL: max 1 seat
IND/DEM: max 1 seat
Nutjob Ulster: 1 seat

[drbob1972]

broadly speaking i'd agree, i think in DUblin that MLM faces a uphill battle (to put it mildly), i'd also be unsurprised if FF candidates took a beating as part of a general negativity towards the government, probably Aylward more so than Ryan

[caminoed]

i wouldnt' write of mlm. mitchell will run away with dublin election. i think de rossa will be helped by a good day for labour, and he did well last time even with a strong showing by bacik. i wouldn't rule out dublin returning no ff mep...

[Catalpa]

Dublin is very very tight and almost impossible to predict at this stage.


Though my gut feeling is that Frankie will not be amongst those popping the champers when the results are announced...

[Dillon Country]

Generally would agree. Though I think FG are dragging their heels in releation to getting second candidates in East and North West. This could impact - certainly in East. Still, I think FF will get a drubbing.

[coisceim1]

DUBLIN: de Rossa - lab, Mitchell - FG, Ryan FF
EAST: McGuiness - FG, Aylward - FF third seat depends on FG and Libertas candidates but don't see it going to childers
SOUTH: Burke - FG, Crowley - FF, Sinnot - Ind but an outside bet on two FG seats. I think that Kelly is from the wrong end of the constituency even though he has deep pockets
NORT-WEST: Higgins - FG, Ó Neachtain - FF, Harkin - Ind or Ganley Libertas

[setanta]

I think you're a bit too generous to Liebertas there. There's certainly no chance that Decko will be returned if he runs in NW, and the impact that they will have in East is marginal to say the least. Decko's just not going to be able to upset Harkin given her existing deep roots and track record in NW. If anyone will oust Harkin it will be SF, unless they really upset the apple-cart and deny FF a seat in this constituency.

EPP-ED retaining their second seat now that Doyle has retired is IMHO way too high an ambition for them and given the PES performance in East last time out they have to be best positioned to take this vacancy.

Other than that I think we're in broad agreement.

[Eurocitizen]

broadly speaking i'd agree, i think in DUblin that MLM faces a uphill battle (to put it mildly), i'd also be unsurprised if FF candidates took a beating as part of a general negativity towards the government, probably Aylward more so than Ryan

I would imagine that Aylward and Crowley are safe and hard to see Ryan loose in Dublin it would take a major swing against FF for him to loose he gets a lot of cross party support and is very well respected as a politician., the only doubt would be O Neachtain but I think he will get a seat .

[DeGaulle 2.0]

I would imagine that Aylward and Crowley are safe and hard to see Ryan loose in Dublin it would take a major swing against FF for him to loose he gets a lot of cross party support and is very well respected as a politician., the only doubt would be O Neachtain but I think he will get a seat .

Based on the results of the last European election in Dublin, a 1.1% swing from Fianna Fáil to Sinn Féin would lose Ryan the seat (unless Green Party supporters transfer to FF).

[Eurocitizen]

Based on the results of the last European election in Dublin, a 1.1% swing from Fianna Fáil to Sinn Féin would lose Ryan the seat (unless Green Party supporters transfer to FF).

I don't have the figures but I cannot see a swing to SF ,in fact I would predict their vote would decrease . if anything Labour would get the SF vote?