European Elections Predictions for Ireland

[zeleneye]

DUBLIN: de Rossa - lab, Mitchell - FG, Ryan FF
EAST: McGuiness - FG, Aylward - FF third seat depends on FG and Libertas candidates but don't see it going to childers
SOUTH: Burke - FG, Crowley - FF, Sinnot - Ind but an outside bet on two FG seats. I think that Kelly is from the wrong end of the constituency even though he has deep pockets
NORT-WEST: Higgins - FG, Ó Neachtain - FF, Harkin - Ind or Ganley Libertas

That looks like being closer to the mark. Would also be surprised to see Childers get elected. Although without a full list of candidates its too early to call.

I really hope that Sinnott doesn't get re-elected but - in this political climate - I think there is a strong loo-lah vote out there. Is there no chance of SF running a strong candidate in either NW or South? Surely they would mop up some of the anti-establishment, anti-European sentiment.

[locke]

Is there no chance of SF running a strong candidate in either NW or South? Surely they would mop up some of the anti-establishment, anti-European sentiment.

To be honest, with the exception of running Martin Ferris himself, I don't see that Sinn Fein could have picked a stronger candidate in South. Toireasa Ferris is probably the highest profile of all their councillors in the constituency.

Parachuting someone from the northern leadership would probably not have gone down too well.

[zeleneye]

To be honest, with the exception of running Martin Ferris himself, I don't see that Sinn Fein could have picked a stronger candidate in South. Toireasa Ferris is probably the highest profile of all their councillors in the constituency.

So you think she has a chance then?

Almost anybody would be better than KS. I would never vote SF but they are not all bad. Barbara de Brún is a hard-working MEP and does a lot to salvage the credibility of SF, which would otherwise be shattered by Big Mac.

As I have said before - watch for the flurry of pointless questions to the Commission from MEPs that have otherwise done shag all over the term trying to justify their continued existence. Sadly, it will work.

[Duth Ealla]

[quote=locke;1402692]To be honest, with the exception of running Martin Ferris himself, I don't see that Sinn Fein could have picked a stronger candidate in South. Toireasa Ferris is probably the highest profile of all their councillors in the constituency.

Parachuting someone from the northern leadership would probably not have gone down too well.[/quote]

The strategy has always been to build up a local voter base with local candidates so a northern candidate would have been unlikely.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Dublin: Mitchell, Ryan, McDonald
East: McGuinness, Aylward, Childers
South: Crowley, Burke, Sinnott
Northwest: Neachtáin, Higgins, Ganley/McLochlainn
Six Counties: De Brún, DUP candidate, Jim Nicholson

[caminoed]

dublin: mitchell, de rossa, mcdonald
East: mcguinness, alward, childers
South: crowley, sean kelly, alan kelly
North West: harkin, mclochlainn, higgins.

gonna go out on a limb and predict no ff seats in either dublin, or north west. possible in current climate...

[zeleneye]

Dublin: Mitchell, Ryan, McDonald
East: McGuinness, Aylward, Childers
South: Crowley, Burke, Sinnott
Northwest: Neachtáin, Higgins, Ganley/McLochlainn

Wow. That list makes me so proud to be oIrish

Think you're wrong on Childers; hope you're wrong on Sinnott.
Dublin's third seat will be very interesting - hard to predict how the transfers will go but assuming Mitchell gets through first round, his transfers will be key. One place they won't go is to Big Mac.

[locke]

So you think she has a chance then?

She has an outside chance, although the fact that Sean Kelly is running will take Kerry votes from her, which doesn't make her task easier.

The only certainty in the constituency is that Crowley will be returned, although I think his vote will be down considerably to about 80% of a quota.

Fine Gael will get at least one seat. It remains to be seen which candidate.

The last seat could go to any of Labour, Sinn Fein, Sinnott, a 2nd FG or a 2nd FF.

My gut feeling is that Sinnott will just sneak in ahead of the 2nd FG candidate.

[Queen Scotia]

Dublin: De Rossa (Lab), Mitchell (FG), Ryan (FF) No Change, although Ben Dunne could spring a surprise, and could fight with De Rossa for the last seat

East: Aylward (FF), McGuinness (FG) to hold their seats, I don't think Childers will win for Labour, even though she has a good political pedigree. I think it depends as to who the second FF and FG candidates are.

South: Kelly (FG), Crowley (FF), and a fight between Burke, Sinnott, John Hanafin (if he runs for FF) for the last seat. Sean Kelly is well-known and hugely respected across Munster, and I think he will beat Colm Burke for the FG Seat.

West: Harkin (independent), O'Neachtan (FF), while Pearse Doherty could spring a surprise for Sinn Fein.

[zeleneye]

The last seat could go to any of Labour, Sinn Fein, Sinnott, a 2nd FG or a 2nd FF.

My gut feeling is that Sinnott will just sneak in ahead of the 2nd FG candidate.

Surely Dan Boyle has as good a chance as Labour - both being slim (the chances that is).

As regards your gut feeling, I hope that it is indigestion rather than a portent. Take a couple of Rennie, steer clear of coffee and spicy food, drink some flat 7-Up and tell me how your gut is feeling later.