Upcoming Elections in Europe and possible impact on Lisbon

[KingKane]

It occurred to me that one possible problem for Lisbon is that the assumption is that those members states that have ratified it won't change but is that a 100% sure thing?

With 27 member states and most government terms being around the 4 year mark it would seem that the balance of probabilities that we would see at least 6/7 elections between now and when Ireland can take a 2nd crack at Lisbon. Someone has already posted about an election in Austria, I suspect there are others in which parties could be elected which intend to reverse their country's position on Lisbon. What countries are due or likely to have polls in the next 12 months?

[querist]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

[ibis]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

The strategy appears to be to keep people guessing while riding the whole no-to-Lisbon-man-of-the-hour thing. Once elected, they're in for five years. It works because the eurosceptics claim to be in favour of greater democracy, accountability, and flexibility in Europe - they're not, really, they just see it as a convenient stick - but Ganley is actually in favour of those things (in a rather demagogic way), so they can't really object to him...if I'm right, and it works, Libertas may succeed in replacing some tranches of nationalist euroscepticism with eurocritical federalism - and more power to his elbow if so.

I could of course be over-interpreting, but I don't think there's any doubt that real eurosceptics simply want the EU to go away, even if they have no idea what they'd do without it. Mr Ganley, on the other hand, seems to be a genuine eurocritic - he doesn't want it to go away, he just wants it to work differently. Instead of setting up yet another national organisation, he's taken the bold yet obvious step of forming a genuinely European movement - at a time when even our own pro-European movements are parochially Irish in character - an unusual step which to some extent explains the unusual interest in him and his organisation. Such people are enormously valuable to any body politic, whether one agrees with them or not.

[fergalr]

Austria's interesting. The UK will be as well.

[evercloserunion]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

The strategy appears to be to keep people guessing while riding the whole no-to-Lisbon-man-of-the-hour thing. Once elected, they're in for five years. It works because the eurosceptics claim to be in favour of greater democracy, accountability, and flexibility in Europe - they're not, really, they just see it as a convenient stick - but Ganley is actually in favour of those things (in a rather demagogic way), so they can't really object to him...if I'm right, and it works, Libertas may succeed in replacing some tranches of nationalist euroscepticism with eurocritical federalism - and more power to his elbow if so.

I would like to see this happen, as it would seriously weaken the Eurosceptic movement IMO. I can't see Ganley or Libertas do particularly well in an election though.

[Magror14]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

The strategy appears to be to keep people guessing while riding the whole no-to-Lisbon-man-of-the-hour thing. Once elected, they're in for five years. It works because the eurosceptics claim to be in favour of greater democracy, accountability, and flexibility in Europe - they're not, really, they just see it as a convenient stick - but Ganley is actually in favour of those things (in a rather demagogic way), so they can't really object to him...if I'm right, and it works, Libertas may succeed in replacing some tranches of nationalist euroscepticism with eurocritical federalism - and more power to his elbow if so.

I could of course be over-interpreting, but I don't think there's any doubt that real eurosceptics simply want the EU to go away, even if they have no idea what they'd do without it. Mr Ganley, on the other hand, seems to be a genuine eurocritic - he doesn't want it to go away, he just wants it to work differently. Instead of setting up yet another national organisation, he's taken the bold yet obvious step of forming a genuinely European movement - at a time when even our own pro-European movements are parochially Irish in character - an unusual step which to some extent explains the unusual interest in him and his organisation. Such people are enormously valuable to any body politic, whether one agrees with them or not.

Are you serious?

[CookieMonster]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

The strategy appears to be to keep people guessing while riding the whole no-to-Lisbon-man-of-the-hour thing. Once elected, they're in for five years. It works because the eurosceptics claim to be in favour of greater democracy, accountability, and flexibility in Europe - they're not, really, they just see it as a convenient stick - but Ganley is actually in favour of those things (in a rather demagogic way), so they can't really object to him...if I'm right, and it works, Libertas may succeed in replacing some tranches of nationalist euroscepticism with eurocritical federalism - and more power to his elbow if so.

I could of course be over-interpreting, but I don't think there's any doubt that real eurosceptics simply want the EU to go away, even if they have no idea what they'd do without it. Mr Ganley, on the other hand, seems to be a genuine eurocritic - he doesn't want it to go away, he just wants it to work differently. Instead of setting up yet another national organisation, he's taken the bold yet obvious step of forming a genuinely European movement - at a time when even our own pro-European movements are parochially Irish in character - an unusual step which to some extent explains the unusual interest in him and his organisation. Such people are enormously valuable to any body politic, whether one agrees with them or not.

Are you serious?

No he really hates Europe and wants to ruin it for everybody so when he says that he doesn't he's just saying that because... well, erm...

[ibis]

I see Libertas are planning to run on a Europe-wide basis. It is not quite clear how Declan Ganley is going to reconcile his hyper-federalism with the eurosceptic tinge of his contacts in other Member States.

The strategy appears to be to keep people guessing while riding the whole no-to-Lisbon-man-of-the-hour thing. Once elected, they're in for five years. It works because the eurosceptics claim to be in favour of greater democracy, accountability, and flexibility in Europe - they're not, really, they just see it as a convenient stick - but Ganley is actually in favour of those things (in a rather demagogic way), so they can't really object to him...if I'm right, and it works, Libertas may succeed in replacing some tranches of nationalist euroscepticism with eurocritical federalism - and more power to his elbow if so.

I could of course be over-interpreting, but I don't think there's any doubt that real eurosceptics simply want the EU to go away, even if they have no idea what they'd do without it. Mr Ganley, on the other hand, seems to be a genuine eurocritic - he doesn't want it to go away, he just wants it to work differently. Instead of setting up yet another national organisation, he's taken the bold yet obvious step of forming a genuinely European movement - at a time when even our own pro-European movements are parochially Irish in character - an unusual step which to some extent explains the unusual interest in him and his organisation. Such people are enormously valuable to any body politic, whether one agrees with them or not.

Are you serious?

I am - although of course I may also be wrong. I'm basing my interpretation on Ganley's many articles and speeches outside the campaign, right back to the first introduction of the Libertas concept. I think a lot of what he wants is either unrealistic or potentially dangerous, but I am, rightly or wrongly, under the impression that he genuinely wants it - it's not a cover for euroscepticism (in the knee jerk "oog, EU bad!" sense of our resident eurotrolls).

[eurosceptic]

Very interesting point KK. Until all 27 signed hard copies of the treaty are deposited in rome there is no contract and ratification can be withdrawn. I had some brief contact with austrian no campaigners and suggested this to them. A british election kills the treaty for sure.

[Tribunaljunkie]

Very interesting point KK. Until all 27 signed hard copies of the treaty are deposited in rome there is no contract and ratification can be withdrawn. I had some brief contact with austrian no campaigners and suggested this to them. A british election kills the treaty for sure.

Wrong. Legally a treaty ratified cannot unilaterally be unratified by any state. All the states that have ratified it and deposited the instrument of ratification cannot withdraw ratification under international law. That was outlined in detail in the UK courts in a number of challenges. Once the Queen granted the Royal Assent and the treaty was lodged in Rome, which has been done, the courts explained, as was already known, that Britain is bound by that ratification. But the effects of the ratification do not go live until the treaty comes into force, which will not happen until all 27 states have ratified it and a date is selected for implementation.