German Election

[CJH]

Surprised this hasn't been mentioned before.

Germany go to the polls (yet again) in a few weeks, and at this stage it looks like the Christian Democrats will take back power from Schroeder. However the gap is narrowing (according to The Times, SDs on 34% and CDs on 42%) as Merkel was perceived to lose the televised debate with the Cahncellor, and as Katrina has provoked a debate within Germany over the relative benefits of their social market compáred to the supposed 'neo-liberalism' that the CDs want to introduce.

It's probably assumed by most in this part of the world that a right-wing victory would be good for the German, and by extension, the European economy, but interestingly Anatole Kaltesky in The Times argues that Merkel will not take the correct approach.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...769881,00.html

[agora]

With those figures, a coalition between SDP and the Left Party is starting to look like a possibility. What percentage were the Left Party on in that poll? Last time I looked they were on around 9%.

[CJH]

The Left Party are down 1 at 8%. I doubt that schroeder would want to go into coalition with them, though, as they were set up as a protest against his reforms

[cain1798]

The Left Party are down 1 at 8%. I doubt that schroeder would want to go into coalition with them, though, as they were set up as a protest against his reforms

Kind of. It's an alliance of a broad enough group of parties including Lafontaine and a sizeable group of Social Democrats whom as you point out left in protest against his reforms. But it also includes the PDS for example, and other established political parties.

Vote Left. It's the right thing to do.

[agora]

The Left Party are down 1 at 8%. I doubt that schroeder would want to go into coalition with them, though, as they were set up as a protest against his reforms

The PDs were set up in opposition to the way FF was going. Then they went into coalition with them.

[CJH]

The PDs were set up in opposition to the way FF was going. Then they went into coalition with them.

Fair point. I wonder though would the SDs need to get rid of Schroeder before they could do a deal with them. Surely he couldn't go into government with them and retain any credibility (though whether he has much left is a moot point)?

[Andrew-formerly'Danny']

With those figures, a coalition between SDP and the Left Party is starting to look like a possibility. What percentage were the Left Party on in that poll? Last time I looked they were on around 9%.

Schroder has said he wouldn't go into power with the left, and I hope he doesn't. I hope Schroder wins for two reasons a] I believe that his reforms are more moderate then Merkels nand will thus bring growth without creating social problems and b] I think a left wing party is more capable of bringing in these reforms then a right-wing party, as they know the union base and there is less likely to be a confrontation.
On the non-economic front, I prefer the environmental policy and foreign policy of the Schroder government.

As for the election front, I think the new momentum behind Schroder caused by the debate could lead to further gains against Merkel and lead to a broad coalition.

[NGTR]

After the most recent polls I'd imagine a grand coalition will now be the most likely,

[CJH]

I think a left wing party is more capable of bringing in these reforms then a right-wing party, as they know the union base and there is less likely to be a confrontation.

On that issue, there's another article in the The Times today (excellent paper), illustrating how Schroeder has allowed the former strong ties between the SDP and the unions to wither. The unions have little time for him these days

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...769700,00.html

After the most recent polls I'd imagine a grand coalition will now be the most likely,

That would seem to be the ways things are going, though who will lead it will be interesting

[Andrew-formerly'Danny']

I think a left wing party is more capable of bringing in these reforms then a right-wing party, as they know the union base and there is less likely to be a confrontation.

On that issue, there's another article in the The Times today (excellent paper), illustrating how Schroeder has allowed the former strong ties between the SDP and the unions to wither. The unions have little time for him these days

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...769700,00.html

Granted, but although the ties have weakened, the distrust the Unions have for CDU is far greater, and will likely to to massive confrontation.
Although it will not be easy, Schroder has a better understanding of their concerns and is more 'media friendly' attributes that are badly needed in the coming years.