John Bruton: Germany “‘very unfairly treated” . Nobody forced Ireland to borrow.

[Prester John]

That's just meaningless nonsense.
As members of the Euro zone, going the Iceland route, was not then and is not now an option for us.

I disagree. Back then it was an option (still an option though more difficult now).

The funny thing is that the bondholders were amazed when they were guaranteed - so was everyone else. Every other country had just guaranteed depositors only. There was no pressure to do it and in reality the EU was against it at the time. Do you remember that?

The lies told to the Government by the banks and the corruption and stupidity has still led to zero convictions and no solution to the problem.

At the end of the day you could argue that without the guarantee of bondholders then Irish Government would need to finance banks completely - that is exactly what is happening now anyway i.e. Government money to pay private bondholders. My view is we are paying it all now anyway. It can not be any worse than this. If we refused to pay them anything then it would still be extremely bad but not this bad i.e. over long term less tax payer money wasted.

Short, sharp, shock - a la Argentina and Iceland.

Why is that wrong

[tonic]

I disagree. Back then it was an option (still an option though more difficult now).

The funny thing is that the bondholders were amazed when they were guaranteed - so was everyone else. Every other country had just guaranteed depositors only. There was no pressure to do it and in reality the EU was against it at the time. Do you remember that?

The lies told to the Government by the banks and the corruption and stupidity has still led to zero convictions and no solution to the problem.

At the end of the day you could argue that without the guarantee of bondholders then Irish Government would need to finance banks completely - that is exactly what is happening now anyway i.e. Government money to pay private bondholders. My view is we are paying it all now anyway. It can not be any worse than this. If we refused to pay them anything then it would still be extremely bad but not this bad i.e. over long term less tax payer money wasted.

Short, sharp, shock - a la Argentina and Iceland.

Why is that wrong

It's wrong for a number of reasons.

1. The shock to Argentina & Iceland was sharp, very sharp, but not short, they are both still in very deep sh1t.

Iceland is lucky in that 50/60% make their living from fishing, an activity not dependent particularly on banking or finance and those who don't fish, largely make their living from those who do.

2. Neither was in a currency union, we are and therefore comparisons as completely invalid.

You say "At the end of the day you could argue that without the guarantee of bondholders then Irish Government would need to finance banks completely", which is correct and was the only alternative, but wasn't a real alternative because at the time we didn't have the cash and had no way of getting it. The Guarantee bought time to allow arrangements with to be put in place and keep the banks open at the same time.

Bondholders in every Euro zone country have been paid in full, this is the policy of the ECB and as members of the Euro zone we have absolutely no choice but to go along with that. Our choice is to leave the Euro zone, which is an altogether different matter.

[NYCKY]

Something tells me John Bruton is fishing for another international job. When his gig as EU ambassador to the US ended he offered himself as a candidate for the Presidency of the EU, (Van Rumpuy ultimately got the gig) however I am sure he has his sights set on some other suitable prize through which he can utilize his "talents".

[Prester John]

It's wrong for a number of reasons.

1. The shock to Argentina & Iceland was sharp, very sharp, but not short, they are both still in very deep sh1t.

Iceland is lucky in that 50/60% make their living from fishing, an activity not dependent particularly on banking or finance and those who don't fish, largely make their living from those who do.

2. Neither was in a currency union, we are and therefore comparisons as completely invalid.

You say "At the end of the day you could argue that without the guarantee of bondholders then Irish Government would need to finance banks completely", which is correct and was the only alternative, but wasn't a real alternative because at the time we didn't have the cash and had no way of getting it. The Guarantee bought time to allow arrangements with to be put in place and keep the banks open at the same time.

Bondholders in every Euro zone country have been paid in full, this is the policy of the ECB and as members of the Euro zone we have absolutely no choice but to go along with that. Our choice is to leave the Euro zone, which is an altogether different matter.

We are where we are eh? I do not like where we are or the fact we refuse to question how we got here.

Argentina is a country I know a fair bit about - they have had rapid growth and are back at pre crisis levels. They are different though as they were run in an awful manner prior to the collapse and have been run in an awful manner since i.e. leading to rampant inflation etc. They have fallen behind Chile and Uruguay on most economic indicators despite having huge natural resources and farming. However I argue that despite being frozen out of international finance markets they have done ok.

Big difference with Argentina is that they did a bad thing. They defaulted on sovereign debt. Ireland should not and has not done that. Ireland would not have been frozen out of sovereign debt markets if we had cut spending to sustainable levels rather than throw it in the Croke Park and NAMA bins.

Also, I would be pleased if Ireland is back to pre crisis levels by 2017, wouldn't you?

Argentina also was in sort of a currency union - the corralito.

Iceland: Fishing is as dependent on banking and finance as any other sustainable industry i.e.finance to buy boats etc, insurance etc.

Only businesses really more dependent on finance than this normal business were unsustainable debt driven markets such as property etc. These had to end anyway so the sooner the better. Much of the Irish economy would have carried on in many ways as well. i.e. we have fishing, manufacturing, agriculture, transport. Bear in mind that banks do not lend now anyway so nothing would have changed,

Comparisons are very valid as we can see how things happened and glean some answers. Are Greece and Portugal better examples for us to emulate.

I will stick by my comments and say pay people what they are due, respect the law and do not steal from the citizens of the country because you have no belief in justice and are too scared to say no to ECB.

I find it hard to believe we have not had a referdum on NAMA and paying bond holders as it certainly is against the gist of the constitution.

[jo9jo]

John Bruton is 50% correct in what he says.
Nobody forced us to borrow huge amounts that were a massive multiple of our yearly salaries.
Nobody forced us to lie about our income on mortgage application forms.
Nobody forced us to camp outside and be among the first to sign for a house from the plans in some remote village in the back of beyond (' tis alright Jack, the train to Dublin only takes 2 hours - everyone commutes anyway).
Nobody forced us to hire bouncy castles or to buy luxury cars in excess of EUR 50000.
Nobody forced us to join posh golf clubs so we could stick a membership sticker (beside the tax disk) on the windshield of the BMW.
Nobody forced us.
We partied.
We all partied.

However, if the German banks were better. regulated they would never have lent to us.

It takes two to tango.

[daveL]

John Bruton is 50% correct in what he says.
Nobody forced us to borrow huge amounts that were a massive multiple of our yearly salaries.
Nobody forced us to lie about our income on mortgage application forms.
Nobody forced us to camp outside and be among the first to sign for a house from the plans in some remote village in the back of beyond (' tis alright Jack, the train to Dublin only takes 2 hours - everyone commutes anyway).
Nobody forced us to hire bouncy castles or to buy luxury cars in excess of EUR 50000.
Nobody forced us to join posh golf clubs so we could stick a membership sticker (beside the tax disk) on the windshield of the BMW.
Nobody forced us.
We partied.
We all partied.

However, if the German banks were better. regulated they would never have lent to us.

It takes two to tango.

The only thing I did on that list is join a golf club for €750...

PARTAAAY!

[SideysGhost]

I log on to p.ie every couple of days just to remind myself how lucky I really am to be as far away as it is possible to get from the mucksavage Fianna Fáilers and all their idiot helpers. I find it very soothing after a long day in the office.

[Plebian]

It is all chicken and egg stuff. If they had never given the blanket guarantee or refused to make cuts they would not probably have needed a bailout (or a much reduced one).

The foreign banks would not have been able to argue.

However the French and German people provided the cash for the bailout (had to due to Irish Government refusal to make decisions - remember the denying any bailout was needed) - do you not thus expect those foreign governments to prevent themselves from being doubly hit i.e. a default on bonds forcing the French and Germans to inject capital directly to their own banks?

I have no sympathy for the cowardly actions of our own governing class, the facts are though that the ECB is as responsible for our repaying the bondholders as our own spineless politicians are. I would've been in favour of going down the Iceland route myself and using the NPRF to alleviate the worst effects of going down that route, but acknowledge that we were over a barrel and it's not all black and white.

There's nobody stopping our Govt from stripping the Architects of our misfortune of their pensions and liberty( new laws if necessary ), the crooked banking and political culture that allowed it all to happen are all of our own doing and it could all happen again because our governments are still in bed with the bankers.

The chain of events was started by Ireland and it led inevitably to the current situation

Our own Gombeen class of Bankers, Developers and politicians were well known for what they were, they were just the local pigs at the giant trough that the FED and the ECB created.

[SAT]

John Bruton is 50% correct in what he says.
Nobody forced us to borrow huge amounts that were a massive multiple of our yearly salaries.
Nobody forced us to lie about our income on mortgage application forms.
Nobody forced us to camp outside and be among the first to sign for a house from the plans in some remote village in the back of beyond (' tis alright Jack, the train to Dublin only takes 2 hours - everyone commutes anyway).
Nobody forced us to hire bouncy castles or to buy luxury cars in excess of EUR 50000.
Nobody forced us to join posh golf clubs so we could stick a membership sticker (beside the tax disk) on the windshield of the BMW.
Nobody forced us.
We partied.
We all partied.

However, if the German banks were better. regulated they would never have lent to us.

It takes two to tango.

Neither I, nor most people I know, did any of the things on that list, but that is beside the point. Most Irish people aren't complaining about paying back the money they borrowed, they are complaining about paying back gamblers who invested at high interest rates (to reflect the degree of risk), in private run corporations, and who lost their bet.

[turdsl]

John Bruton is 50% correct in what he says.
Nobody forced us to borrow huge amounts that were a massive multiple of our yearly salaries.
Nobody forced us to lie about our income on mortgage application forms.
Nobody forced us to camp outside and be among the first to sign for a house from the plans in some remote village in the back of beyond (' tis alright Jack, the train to Dublin only takes 2 hours - everyone commutes anyway).
Nobody forced us to hire bouncy castles or to buy luxury cars in excess of EUR 50000.
Nobody forced us to join posh golf clubs so we could stick a membership sticker (beside the tax disk) on the windshield of the BMW.
Nobody forced us.
We partied.
We all partied.

However, if the German banks were better. regulated they would never have lent to us.

It takes two to tango.

Speak for yourself. Neither you or John Bruton has any authority to speak fo me.