How would overturning Crotty impact Irish party politics?

[an modh coinniolach]

In his column in today’s Irish Times, Noel Whelan suggests that there is a mood within certain government circles to challenge the Crotty judgment.

I think that discussing the implications of such a move would be a worthwhile exercise

On the face of it the attraction of overturning Crotty to overtly pro-EU parties such as Fine Gael and Labour is obvious. It seems to me however that the party political risks involved in this are far greater than they might at first appear.

Whatever its legal and moral rights or wrongs, from the perspective of party politics Crotty effectively depoliticizes Europe as an issue. Any changes get put to a referendum and internal party dissent on the issue can be glossed over. Were Crotty overturned Europe, and a party’s attitude to the EU, would potentially become a key motivational factor at General Election time. This has the potential to add a very different dynamic to Irish politics and Ireland’s relationship to the EU.

I would suggest then that overturning Crotty would have the following risks attached:
1. A public backlash against what may be seen as an attempt to circumvent democracy
2. Increased anti-EU sentiment, particularly when the decision would be seen as cementing unpopular austerity measures
3. The emergence of Europe as an election issue in the same way which it is in the UK

The parties which would most likely benefit from this are Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, being the most obvious candidates to lead opposing pro- and anti-EU blocs. That said, I detect a small Euro-sceptic rump in Fine Gael, as well as elements of the left that are, theoretically at least, pro-EU, so it’s not clear how exactly such a re-alignment would play out.

In any case, I contend that overturning Crotty could have an enormous impact on the Irish political landscape, any opinions?

[Gunthar Son of Thurgar]

At one level it would not have much of an impact. The Europe issue becomes political when there is a referendum, and if Crotty is overturned so comprehensively that no more referenda are required then Europe issues will not appear on the radar.

An effect of the referenda is that they cut the legs from under the anti-EU people and so Europe does not become an election issue. In the longer term the Europe issue could become an election issue as the OP says. However, all of the large parties have a similar approach to the issue and it is difficult to see how it could become divisive. Indeed, support for Europe could become shored up because many FF and FG voters may have voted No to the first Nice and Lisbon referenda to let off steam. They are unlikely to use their votes in such a manner in a general election.

Single issue anti-EU people may move from the larger parties to anti-EU candidates and parties, but they have probably made that journey already.

The overall effect will be that the more colourful independents and small party candidates will be eliminated at a later stage in the count than heretofore.

[ger12]

A free hand for whoever is in government. Dilution of our democracy. And that is what this government is aiming for with this referendum talk. Crotty overturned.

[stopdoingstuff]

It might well put the gun back into Irish politics.

[an modh coinniolach]

You're probably correct, what struck me though when I read the articles is that I wonder whether or not Europe is on its way to being a bit like abortion for the larger parties. They might pay lip-service to legislation but ultimately are happy to have it as a referendum issue. After all elections fought on issues like Europe or abortion are a damn site messier than those fought over potholes and jobbery.

At one level it would not have much of an impact. The Europe issue becomes political when there is a referendum, and if Crotty is overturned so comprehensively that no more referenda are required then Europe issues will not appear on the radar.

An effect of the referenda is that they cut the legs from under the anti-EU people and so Europe does not become an election issue. In the longer term the Europe issue could become an election issue as the OP says. However, all of the large parties have a similar approach to the issue and it is difficult to see how it could become divisive. Indeed, support for Europe could become shored up because many FF and FG voters may have voted No to the first Nice and Lisbon referenda to let off steam. They are unlikely to use their votes in such a manner in a general election.

Single issue anti-EU people may move from the larger parties to anti-EU candidates and parties, but they have probably made that journey already.

The overall effect will be that the more colourful independents and small party candidates will be eliminated at a later stage in the count than heretofore.

[Gunthar Son of Thurgar]

You're probably correct, what struck me though when I read the articles is that I wonder whether or not Europe is on its way to being a bit like abortion for the larger parties. They might pay lip-service to legislation but ultimately are happy to have it as a referendum issue. After all elections fought on issues like Europe or abortion are a damn site messier than those fought over potholes and jobbery.

Both abortion and Europe can be emotive issues. The difference from the perspective of the large parties is that an abortion referendum is a sideshow to allow the grassroots of the various parties throw buns at each other. But getting Europe right is seen as fundamental to the interests of the State. They fear that the wrong result in a referendum could sink Ireland. They might be wrong or right in that view but as I understand it, that is how they see it.

[Sister Mercedes]

I don't see what's democratic about letting 7 people on the supreme court of a country with 4 million people on the Western fringe of Europe dictate to the other 500 million EU members.

[west'sawake]

I don't see what's democratic about letting 7 people on the supreme court of a country with 4 million people on the Western fringe of Europe dictate to the other 500 million EU members.

So you assume Europe is a nation then!

[Socratus O' Pericles]

What would be the mechanicis of such an overturning?

[Rocky]

What I think is nearly more interesting, is by calling for a referendum, regardless of whether one is actually needed or not, Fianna Fail have broken what has basically been an alliance between themselves and Fine Gael since 1972, where basically both parties always had the same position on European issues (i.e. basically supported everything).

I think part of that, has been because Fianna Fail has rarely been in opposition, when big things have happened in Europe and FF were always more likely to oppose European treaties than Fine Gael and historically it's been very rare when they've backed anything the government has done when in opposition. The exception to that is the Single European Act, but FF pretty much knew they would be in power shortly when it was being negotiated and were in power when it was ratified.

It is still interesting though and it wouldn't surprise me if FF oppose the Treaty if it is put to a vote, the fact that they still don't have a position is pretty poor as it is. However I think that is more of a sign of this race to oppose everything the most between SF, the ULA and Fianna Fail than any real ideological change.