French Presidential election 2012

[forest]

We need more information on this, in this form and in our media
It is of great importance to us.

Over the last few weeks and in the months to come there will be many articles in the news papers, news on TV and threads on this site about the US presidential election.

However the French presidential election will have far more implications on us than that od the US (and for that matter Irish presidential election)

While Ireland may have an historical link to the US I cant think of anything in the last 4 years the US president has done that has adirect effect on Ireland or for that matter the last four years of Bush II
I am sure someone while come up with something but it doesn’t take away from my point that the French election is more important

Hollande is at 60% in the polls (round 2)
What will the effect of having a PS president in the Eurozones second largest economy
How will this effect French/German relations or for that matter irish/French relations
Will Eammon Gillmore make immediate contact with him (they come from the same EU grouping) as Kenny has tried to do with Merkel

What is his and PS opinion on the fiscal treaty will he have to sign it into power.

These are the issues we need to ask
We have no say in the outcome but we have no say in the US election either.

[feedmelies]

Pros:
A socialist government in France will give the other countries of the EU a comparative advantage. More specifically for Ireland, France is another country that appeals to multinationals with it's low corporation tax rate (lower than ours)
Cons:
Socialists having a greater say in the EU may have a negatve impact across the whole EU
Greater chance of France's finances going the way of the pigs

[Cynicist]

France has a coporation tax of 33.1/3 % . Sarkozy has tried hard to get Irish tax reduced so that France can compete.

[feedmelies]

France has a coporation tax of 33.1/3 % . Sarkozy has tried hard to get Irish tax reduced so that France can compete.

There is a wide gap between the official corporate tax rate and the actual effective rate. See here:
Effective EU Corporate Tax Rates - Blogs - IIEA - The Institute of International and European Affairs
France: 8.2
Ireland: 11.9

[Keith-M]

We need more information on this, in this form and in our media
It is of great importance to us.

Actually it's not. The French like to pretend that they are important. There's no longer any need to humour them.

[Frank Galton]

Interesting article about Hollande's platform.

UPDATE 4-France's Hollande targets rich in tax-rise manifesto | Reuters

In a sense, Ireland has helped him by bailing out SocGen so there is more for him to tax.

[Cynicist]

There is a wide gap between the official corporate tax rate and the actual effective rate. See here:
Effective EU Corporate Tax Rates - Blogs - IIEA - The Institute of International and European Affairs
France: 8.2
Ireland: 11.9

As usual -depends on what data you use . As someone pointed out:
Using . data on 'total tax rate as % profit' (i.e. including labour and other taxes too) presents a very different 'EU tax landscape'. For example: Ireland 26.5% UK 37.3% Germany 48.2% France 65.8% Italy 68.6% UK & Ireland among the 'best' locations in Europe and also very competitive against United States (46.8%), Japan (48.6%), etc.

[borntorum]

Probably time to start a general thread on this, given that the elections are fast approaching. The first round will be held on 22 April, with the run-off between the final two on 6 May. Current polling shows Francois Hollande of the Socialist Party with a consistent lead of about 6-8% over Sarkozy, and Marine Le Pen of the Front National not far behind the leading two.

Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This election is hugely important for Europe, particularly given that Hollande has set his face against the politics of austerity of Sarkozy and Merkel. Hollande was seen as the moderate choice from the potential Socialist candidates, but his policy platform launched this week reads like something from the glory days of the European left in the 1950s or 1960s:

Hollande promised to boost state spending by €20bn by 2017, create 60,000 teaching posts and 150,000 subsidised jobs for young people. That is to be paid for by higher taxes for the wealthy, a tax on financial transactions and a 15% rise in taxes on bank profits, a ban on stock options and trading in "toxic" financial instruments, plus caps on bonuses. By the end of a five-year term in the Elysée presidential palace, Hollande says he could bring France's budget deficit back on target as the economy booms and austerity is replaced by expansion.

It's safe to say that Germany will be hoping that the Socialists don't win this election; otherwise a major split between the two leading Euro countries on how to confront the economic crisis seems inevitable. However, those with an interest in French political history may be reminded of Mitterand's election victory of 1981. He had run on a radical left-wing platform, the likes of which was not seen outside of the Communist bloc. After a disastrous year, he was forced into a sharp u-turn and implemented economic policies broadly indistinguishable from the centre-right European mainstream.

Declaring that there was nothing wrong with dreaming, the Mitterrand administration declared war on finance, nationalising banks as well as big companies, state spending was boosted. Wages went up. Capital flowed abroad. Though some social measures such as the abolition of the death penalty brought lasting reform, the experiment ended in economic disaster as inflation soared, the franc was devalued and unemployment rose after the president was obliged to change tack, adopting policies that increased unemployment, slowed growth and lowered France's status vis-a-vis Germany.

Would Hollande be able to face down the Germans and the financial markets? Or would he, as I suspect, be compelled by France's inherent fiscal weakness to quickly change tack and broadly follow the policies of austerity as stipulated by Germany and the ECB?

If the left wins in France, a critical battle of ideologies must surely follow | Jonathan Fenby | Comment is free | The Observer

[NunoF]

Decades of "Socialism" in Portugal, Greece and Spain had the wonderful results we all can see. I cringe to think the impact on France.

However, as someone else noted, this could mean more business to Ireland, especially if the policies followed are of similar nature to the one's in the other European socialist paradises mentioned above. If that is the case, then there should be an exodus of companies from France to Ireland and other EU countries. However, since Socialists can not really be socialists if they don't have someone else's money to spend, I doubt that will be the case in the current situation.

[Analyzer]

Interesting article about Hollande's platform.

UPDATE 4-France's Hollande targets rich in tax-rise manifesto | Reuters

In a sense, Ireland has helped him by bailing out SocGen so there is more for him to tax.

Fat lot of good Sarko has been to them, in getting money out of us, if Hollande comes along and taxes it out of them.

Unless they relocate to somewhere like Malta.