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My post begins with Putins comments yesterday.
Putin warns ethnic tensions risk tearing Russia apart | Reuters
In a newspaper article and an address in southern Russia, Putin used the danger of ethnic discord to call for limits on electoral reforms.
In it he says
The article statesThe Russian people, the Russian culture is the glue holding together the unique fabric of this civilization
...
If a multiethnic society is infected by nationalism, it loses its strength and durability
...
We need to understand what far-reaching effects can be caused by attempts to inflame national enmity and hatred.
I am a regular reader of a US Jewish commentator who styles himself "Spengler", he is a contributor to the Asia Times.In the article, he plugged his plan for a Eurasian Union linking Russia with other ex-Soviet republics including those in Central Asia -- the source of millions of labor migrants in Russia -- saying closer ties would help curb migration by helping to develop their economies.
Yet in a sign he will not reverse a consolidation of power in Moscow, Putin said he could not allow regional political parties because some could be created on ethnic lines, calling it a "direct path to separatism
He has made some excellent points in the past about Russias demographic future.
Mainly that:
- Its possible within a short space of time Russia will be a muslim majority European country which will possess a large nuclear arsenal.
- Massive ethnic russian depopulation in the near future.
Its looks stark and I dont believe Europe will be that far behind, the low birth rate in all European peoples in a major concern for all of us.Russia's position in the world differs in fundamentals from that of the United
States and Western Europe. United Nations projections show its population
declining from about 150 million in 1989, when communism collapsed, to about 90
million at mid-century, and the median age will rise from 25 to 50 years.
Russian women have 13 abortions for every 10 live births, and life expectancy
has fallen to 65 years from 70 years in 1985. But Russia's Muslim majorities
continue to grow and will exceed the non-Muslim European population in as little
as three to four decades.
Asia Times Online :: Central Asian News and current affairs, Russia, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan
He goes on to predict a "Hudna" or movement towards an alliance between the Third Rome and the Islamic world, perhaps we are seeing the start of that with Russias growing association with Iran.
Under Putin, the Russian government introduced an ambitious natalist program to
encourage Russian women to have children. As he warned in his 2006 state of the
union address, "You know that our country's population is declining by an
average of almost 700,000 people a year. We have raised this issue on many
occasions but have for the most part done very little to address it ... First,
we need to lower the death rate. Second, we need an effective migration policy.
And third, we need to increase the birth rate.
Russia's birth rate has risen slightly during the past several years, perhaps in
response to Putin's natalism, but demographers observe that the number of
Russian women of childbearing age is about to fall off a cliff. No matter how
much the birth rate improves, the sharp fall in the number of prospective
mothers will depress the number of births. UN forecasts show the number of Russians aged 20-29
falling from 25 million today to only 10 million by 2040.
Russia, in other words, has passed the point of no return in terms of fertility. Although
roughly four-fifths of the population of the Russian Federation is considered
ethnic Russians, fertility is much higher among the Muslim minorities in Central
Asia. Some demographers predict a Muslim majority in Russia by 2040, and by
mid-century at the latest.
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Originally Posted by hiker
