Let not 1683 have been for nothing.
Let not 1683 have been for nothing.
I think it is good that Turkey should be in the EU. Half of it is in Europe geographically and her emigrants have made a huge contribution to the success of the EU though working in Germany. They've shown they are a hard-working people. Increasing economic prosperity is one of the best ways to prevent extremism. We should all work together.
Quotatio without the 'awkward' bit deleted, for you FT
Europeans are divided over the question of Turkey's possible membership of the European Union, according to a survey published on Sunday.
The poll, carried out in five EU countries, showed 47 percent of people said they were in favour of Turkey joining the 27-nation bloc, 47 percent opposed it and six percent had no opinion.
But when the question was asked in the context of a referendum, opinion swung away from Turkey, with 52 percent opposing its membership bid and only 41 percent backing it, with seven percent giving no answer.
So, in a poll about a hypothetical proposition, 47% were in favour and 47% against, but if put to a poll right now, 52% of the population said they'd vote NO, and 41% said yes?
What was the split among the EU "elites", exactly? I can't find it in your post, but you say this poll shows them greatly out of line. The article itself suggests that they are divided too (whoever they are...
Also, the Commission have said that there's no question of membership being even proposed until much more is done on bringing their legal and political system into line with EU norms.The EU began membership talks with Turkey in 2005, but the process has made slow progress due in part to opposition from some countries, particularly France and Germany, which are concerned about a predominantly Muslim country of 71 million people joining the bloc.
So in brief, on the general question, feeling among the population (according to the poll you bring to our attention) is 50/50 (or 47/47), but if they had to vote now, most would be against. The article you (selectively) quote shows opposition form French and German Govts, and the Commission are against it even going to Council for decision at this stage.
So who are these elites that are 'out of tune' with the people, exactly? Are we back to the Lizard people...?
Last edited by dotski_w_; 14th March 2010 at 09:34 AM.
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Do you actually beleive that?
Since Maastricht, each current member state and the European Parliament must agree to any enlargement. The member states agree through their national parliaments (generally both chambers and in some cases regional assemblies also, depending on their national constitutional arrangements), which I would have thought would be quite public.
When Romania and Bulgaria joined, the he closest vote was in the house of representatives in Holland (93 to 52), with the Vlaams parlement next (77-26). Turkish accession (if it ever actually gets to the table) would be subject to the same process.
So, no, it wouldn't be decided behind closed doors, and even any proposal negotiated would happen in the context of knowing it had to clear the decision making process in at least 27 sovereign states.
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I think hes implying is that this is a new battle in an old war. Most Germans today arent Nazis, most Turks are still Muslims. The caliphate is gone but the danger to europe hasnt.
There is a high degree of demographic momentum in turkey, ie. large families, to simply open the border to tens of millions of uneducated Anatolian peasants would be incredibly stupid. My opinion is that Turkey will never sort out its so called 'human rights' problems. So either concessions will be given to Turkey to allow them to join or they never will.
Birth rate - Color-Coded World Map - Europe
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¦ . ¦ Gnosis desires dominion over being; in order to seize control of being the Gnostic constructs his system. -
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You raise some interesting points. For sure there are lobbies out there for Turkey's membership. I don't think they're going to win the day though. I think the EU has been bitten by a number of developments in recent years, not least:
- The unpreparedness for membership of Romania and (especially) Bulgaria, two countries that IMO were encouraged to join probably primarily for energy security reasons (pipelines etc); and
- The implosion of Eurozone member, Greece.
The EU probably thought their European credentials would ultimately suffice to sit all three comfortably within the EU set-up. I wonder though are the Balkans the ultimate dividing-line for what Europe can comfortably house (and I'm not sure myself which side of that line most Balkan countries fall).
IMO the EU's experience with the Balkans in the noughties is acting as a salutory lesson on the prospect of Turkish membership. There is simply not enough cultural commonality to absorb Turkey into European culture. If we can't rely on the Greeks (who we thought we had an understanding with), can we afford even to consider a gamble with the membership of a country which would quite probably tear the European project asunder?
In short, I can't see Turkey joining the EU, and certainly not in the next 50 years.