Is there a long-term future for the Euro?

[watch-this-drive]

Having just read the housing prices thread it set off something in my mind.
It always amazes me how people never see a recession coming - sure why we would we have a recession? when there is also a pretty good chance that a recession is just around the corner...
Anyway, Libero mentioned that he had a first class degree in Business and has work in the city, I too have a degree in Business and work in financial markets so Id be interested in opinions on...

Will the Euro still definately be with us in 15 years?

I would argue that we arent going to reach closer financial union in Europe - The most significant tax rates wont become uniform
Budgetary pacts are actually weaker than they were before the Euro
Large economies (France) are insisting on protecting their domestic labour from new entrants

and that we really arent going to get much closer politically -
Even the Constitution looks likely to have to be renegociated

Added to that the German, Italian, Spanish and Irish economies are dramatically different and given each of their problems and strong national interest could some start looking their own way - abandoning the Euro experiment?
The US may have as dramatic regional differences but it does have any like the other aboves issues and recent birth to cloud the issue.

What would you consider the probability of the splintering of the Euro in the next 15 years?
Id say at least 10%

[david]

I already predicted this on another thread in a sort-of light-hearted manner: 2020 I think I said, purely based upon the rate of change of currencies to date.

From English pound to Irish punt to decimal to euro...the period in between each change got shorter and shorter. No degree needed for such cynicism! So yes, I agree, it's got fifteen years left, tops.

As for a recession, why not? Realistically, it will happen.

[watch-this-drive]

No degree needed for such cynicism!

Didnt mean to infer it was - I really like your rationale - rate of change!

As for a recession, why not? Realistically, it will happen.

Will it happen?
Let me see - yes of course I think a recession is inevitable, what amazing new macroeconomic policy have we discovered to shield us?
Economies have always worked in cycles I dont see anything to change that especially for a small exposed economy.
When will it happen is the question and maybe one for another thread - I may add to the Housing Prices thread.

[hiker]

Don't Panic, don't Panic!!!
I'm 41 years old. I have lived through a recession. I did'nt emmigrate. I always found a bit of work, somewhere. I bought a house in the middle of it. It is NOT the end of the world.
Things may not come easy but there will not be starving people on the streets. Even during the worst of the recession, not that many homes were repossessed. Because of our history, financial institutions have always been reluctant to reposses family homes. Investment homes I'm not so sure.

[Libero]

I would argue that we arent going to reach closer financial union in Europe - The most significant tax rates wont become uniform
Budgetary pacts are actually weaker than they were before the Euro
Large economies (France) are insisting on protecting their domestic labour from new entrants

I agree with that.

The tensions are reflected in the market for treasury default swaps - the cost of insuring government bonds.
In the last few months the gap between German bonds and Greek/Italian ones has widened significantly. If the markets believed that the euro-project was solid as a rock this simply wouldn't happen - investors would be as happy holding Greek debt as German debt.

What amazes me is that politicians around Europe are not blaming the Euro for all their ills. In fact they are behaving quite loyally to the project. In the Netherlands, its the average citizen who blames the euro for inflation (when you'd expect the politicians to be the first to blame Brussels) and in Germany and France they are focusing on the straw man of the blood-sucking anglo-saxon capitalist instead of artificially high interest rates, the common trade union complaint.

What would you consider the probability of the splintering of the Euro in the next 15 years?
Id say at least 10%

I'd put it higher than that but after my property price doom-mongering don't want to seem too much of a cynic.
I think that the effective abandoning of budgetary discipline will come to be seen as wholly incompatable with a single currency area. Let's put it that way.

[Oreo Livermore]

Don't Panic, don't Panic!!!
I'm 41 years old. I have lived through a recession. I did'nt emmigrate. I always found a bit of work, somewhere. I bought a house in the middle of it. It is NOT the end of the world.
re.

How are things in Spain since you emmigrated. I hope you were able to flog that house



_________________________________
Recent Discussions - Real Irish Politics Forums

[evercloserunion]

How many threads are we going to have predicting doom for the euro. The euro has been seeing tough times for a while now but there is no sign whatsoever that any serious consideration is being given to its discontinuance.

[seabhcan]

How many threads are we going to have predicting doom for the euro. The euro has been seeing tough times for a while now but there is no sign whatsoever that any serious consideration is being given to its discontinuance.

This thread is 5 years old.

[Aindriu]

Don't Panic, don't Panic!!!
I'm 41 years old. I have lived through a recession. I did'nt emmigrate. I always found a bit of work.

But what type of work? Plus, I would say that you were extremely lucky.

[Passionateheart]

With the ordinary German people getting nervous about continuing the Euro, surely the chances of it going are a lot higher than 10% within 15 years, I'd say 40% within 10!