End game

[Malbekh]

Disclaimer: I do not and never intend to, get involved with the climate change topic thread. Climate changes, period. Whether this is down to man made or natural cycles is open to debate. I prefer to deal with statistical information based on factual changes, and their potential effect on mankind.

The article I would like to draw your attention to is the first I've seen that ties in all potential factors together. We've had threads on climate change, the forthcoming crisis on energy and the current population trends.

This ties the whole lot together. The article is on the BBC website here:

BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | What is the 2030 Perfect Storm idea?

His main contentions are that by 2030

* The world's population will rise from 6bn to 8bn (33%)
* Demand for food will increase by 50%
* Demand for water will increase by 30%
* Demand for energy will increase by 50%

This is quite clearly unsustainable, but in conjunction with the increased demands of a higher population, where the emerging Indian and Chinese populations require more labour and resource demanding diets, the already chronic shortages of water combined with a gradual reduction in natural resources, strong action is required now.

Have a look at the three comments from the consultants below the main article. You can argue about the severity and the timeline of what Beddington proposes, but the elements involved and the way they come together is what interests me.

[cactusflower]

Sea level rise due to the warming and expansion of the oceans, the melting of the Andes and Himalyan catchments, top soil erosion and salination of deltas would seem to me to be very serious threats to habitats supporting many billions of population.

I don't believe capitalism is capable of dealing either with the avoidance of these impacts, or putting in place alternative "life support systems" for our population. "Dirty" industry makes more money that clean. There is more profit to be made if environmental impacts are ignored. The alternative is an economy based on sustainable management of the environment, producing to meet need.

[Ecoguy]

The timeline sounds about right to me and sadly capitalism/standard economics is a large part of the problem since it fails to take account of the finite nature of the planet in terms of ecosystem stress, water supply, soil, fish stocks etc.

[lapsedmethodist]

James Lovelock says lie back and enjoy it. Nothing to be done, and mankind will adapt and survive although in greatly reduced numbers.
As an aside, I'm always suprised at the anti-mititary attitudes struck by the obscurantists on this forum. If these figures don't call for us to be able to both defend ourselves and our resources as well as having a stab at humanitarian defence, I don't know what!!

[fiannafailure]

James Lovelock says lie back and enjoy it. Nothing to be done, and mankind will adapt and survive although in greatly reduced numbers.
As an aside, I'm always suprised at the anti-mititary attitudes struck by the obscurantists on this forum. If these figures don't call for us to be able to both defend ourselves and our resources as well as having a stab at humanitarian defence, I don't know what!!

If James Lovelock were a younger man his attitude would be different, all of these problems have engineering solutions, however the fundamentalist green movements will seek to prevent these engineering solutions

[McDave]

Thanks for the interesting post Malbekh.

There are two things the EU can do:

- Ameliorate its own consumption; and
- Bring positive influence to bear on the world stage.

One thing is for sure, individual member states will have no impact. Coordinated international action is the only way.