Eddie Hobbs: "We are now at Peak Oil"

[SPN]

That's true, particulary when you take into account the hundreds of years worth of supplies of Tar Sands in Western Canada,

There are hundreds of years of oil left in the ground too.

Peak Oil is not about how much oil is in the ground. It is about how fast you can get it out, and at what cost.


The problem with the tar sands, as I posted above, is threefold.

1) Net Energy: You have to put in more energy to process these materials into a usable liquid fuel than you get out.

2) Volume: You cannot produce these in anywhere near the volumes we currently use.

3) Climate Change: Processing these materials into liquid fuel causes massive CO2 emissions.

[teach]

There are hundreds of years of oil left in the ground too.

Peak Oil is not about how much oil is in the ground. It is about how fast you can get it out, and at what cost.


The problem with the tar sands, as I posted above, is threefold.

1) Net Energy: You have to put in more energy to process these materials into a usable liquid fuel than you get out.

2) Volume: You cannot produce these in anywhere near the volumes we currently use.

3) Climate Change: Processing these materials into liquid fuel causes massive CO2 emissions.

But what about the potential of creating bio-diesel out of algae? That could be done anywhere, and at any time in the world.

[dunk]

For those that still think there is nothing to worry about, all is fine, peak oil is just a scare tactic... etc. I´d like to draw your attention to the PEAK OIL chapter from Cris Mastersons crash course

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwNgNyiXPLk]YouTube - Crash Course: Chapter 17a - Peak Oil by Chris Martenson[/ame]

And from that id direct you to perhaps the most famous of the PEAK OIL DOCUMENTARIES of all of them;


THE END OF SUBURBIA: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream



Heres the trailer

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM"]YouTube - The End of Suburbia promo trailer[/ame]

Full vid can be found here

A Solution:





As stated the Transition movement is growing rapidly, originally growing out of Kinsale permaculture college in West Cork, it evolved into the transition town movement in Totnes, England, and since has gone viral. If you want to check out whats going on, and there is much goings on now thankfully in the "Green Isle" check out the Transition Ireland NING site...

If you feel like reading more about the transition movement id advise reading the excellent concise PRIMER and if your inspired and up for it the bible; The Transition Handbook (freely available online version)

[SPN]

But what about the potential of creating bio-diesel out of algae? That could be done anywhere, and at any time in the world.

biodiesel out of algae is technically possible, but it is a drop in the ocean in terms of global daily use of mineral diesel. You'd be much better off buying shares in Raleigh

Here's a good primer on Algae to Biofuel

[fiannafailure]

SPN

We seem to agree on many things in general, however I submit to you that maybe you should be a little less judgemental on specific new technologies, such as algae to diesel. You have mentioned previously that you run your car on vegetable oil, I have been an advisor to many companies doing feasibility studies into producing bio-diesel and would claim to know quite a lot about this area. You gave a reference in your previous post to a primer on algae oil production in which I have found a quite few instances of pure ideology and illogical thought processes. Let me state for the record that the only reason that biodiesel is not a mainstream product is that it competes with food production for its raw materials, that is the reason there was such inflation in the cost of basic foodstuffs in the last decade, farmers chose to grow biomass such as rapeseed rather than cereals and vegetables. I can deliver to your door a bio diesel production plant which generates its own electricity supply and produces enough bio diesel to be a big commercial success, however the problem is that we would struggle to get enough feedstock, without making corn flakes a luxury item in superquinn, simply because there is insufficient land available to grow food and biomass.

The sea however is a different story all together and over the coming century will become the saviour of the world in numerous areas not least fuel production, Gaia protects itself, our current peak oil problem, but Gaia also provides, the oceans and renewable energies.

Finally, there is a massive difference between a process being used as a carbon neutral fuel and being used as carbon storage, but in many cases the same process is useful for both agendas, we simply have to chose which one we want.

I urge you to have a re think on this subject and am available as a sounding board, that occasionally speaks back

[fiannafailure]

I heard the Labour Party was working on a new Energy Policy. Is that it?

I must be allowed to earn a living!!

[fiannafailure]

Only 2 problems for Hobbs,

1. His thesis only holds if no new discoveries of oil are made.
2. No one can predict the future.

He's right to be concerned but almost certainly wrong

I submit that almost all new oil discoveries and there will be some, will have high extraction costs and consequent high prices

[SPN]

SPN

We seem to agree on many things in general, however I submit to you that maybe you should be a little less judgemental on specific new technologies, such as algae to diesel. You have mentioned previously that you run your car on vegetable oil, I have been an advisor to many companies doing feasibility studies into producing bio-diesel and would claim to know quite a lot about this area. You gave a reference in your previous post to a primer on algae oil production in which I have found a quite few instances of pure ideology and illogical thought processes. Let me state for the record that the only reason that biodiesel is not a mainstream product is that it competes with food production for its raw materials, that is the reason there was such inflation in the cost of basic foodstuffs in the last decade, farmers chose to grow biomass such as rapeseed rather than cereals and vegetables. I can deliver to your door a bio diesel production plant which generates its own electricity supply and produces enough bio diesel to be a big commercial success, however the problem is that we would struggle to get enough feedstock, without making corn flakes a luxury item in superquinn, simply because there is insufficient land available to grow food and biomass.

The sea however is a different story all together and over the coming century will become the saviour of the world in numerous areas not least fuel production, Gaia protects itself, our current peak oil problem, but Gaia also provides, the oceans and renewable energies.

Finally, there is a massive difference between a process being used as a carbon neutral fuel and being used as carbon storage, but in many cases the same process is useful for both agendas, we simply have to chose which one we want.

I urge you to have a re think on this subject and am available as a sounding board, that occasionally speaks back

I have no fixed opinion on Algae because I have not done any in depth research into it. The article I posted is a balanced and logical look at the subject by a reputable source which I posted so that P.ie readers could get a quick primer on the subject.

If you disagree with the analysis of Robert Rapier and the other contributors in that article, then feel free to bring forward your analysis. In particular you might explain how algae production can be scaled up to the level required, the net energy balance of the process (energy input:energy output), and how you see the price being reduced from the $30/gallon quoted in that article to something more realistic.

[Geckko]

There are hundreds of years of oil left in the ground too.

Peak Oil is not about how much oil is in the ground. It is about how fast you can get it out, and at what cost.


The problem with the tar sands, as I posted above, is threefold.

1) Net Energy: You have to put in more energy to process these materials into a usable liquid fuel than you get out.

2) Volume: You cannot produce these in anywhere near the volumes we currently use.

3) Climate Change: Processing these materials into liquid fuel causes massive CO2 emissions.

You persist with this palpable ideologically driven nonsense.

While you say "it's not feasible", the commercial world gets out and does it, because it works. You are proven wrong. We aren't talking Stoern here, but SASOL for example. There is enough energy conserved from input to ouput to meet all costs and provide a return to risk capital. For coal oil it is at around $50 per barrel.

Again, we don't need to substitue all oil use, that will continuie to happen naturally over time with tecnological progess - we use far less oil to produce a DOllar, Yen, Euro of income than we did 50 years ago. In 100, we will need far far less.

And there is no proof that we are facing dangerous climate change. We need not outlaw or forbid any technology on the unsupported claims that we are..

[Geckko]

This place has all the hallmarks of one of those nutty doomsday cults.

Drink up that Kool Aid lads.