Eddie Hobbs: "We are now at Peak Oil"

[SPN]

SPN,

I do not have to read the report to know that the IEA did not say that global oil production would fall by 7% per anum after peak. Why? Because that would be a silly thing to say.

You really don't have a clue, do you?

They are saying that it IS declining by 6.7%, and that the rate will increase.

Here's an excerpt.

We estimate that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7%. [...] The current figure is derived from our analysis of production at 800 fields, including all 54 super-giants (holding more than 5 billion barrels) in production today.

Global Gas production is not about to peak. Gas production follows a different curve to oil. It will not peak for, maybe, 30 years.

The Gas fields that are connected to Ireland by pipeline have peaked.

We need to build LNG. Shannon can become an LNG gateway into the UK and Europe. If we do that, we will have enough gas for a long time.

Complete nonsense! We would have to buy each and every tanker load at auction, and as the UK found out last year, this can get very very expensive very fast.

Right, so you want to grow something, say willow or straw, to power the CHP plants. It's not going to work; the same way biofuels won't work. Think of the fossil fuels that would be needed to grow it. Think of the extra food imports we would have to source, as huge areas of agricultural land would be turned to this. We simply could not do it. It would not make us any less dependent on fossil fuels. It would be amazingly expensive. And, more importantly, it just would not work.

Biofuels DO work. My car runs on rapeseed oil.

We are not going to be burning straw because it contains too many nutrients that we will need to return to the soil (without oil and gas we won't have access to the chemical inputs we have today).

We will be less dependent on fossil fuels, mainly because we won't be able to AFFORD fossil fuels.

If it works perfectly well in Scandinavia and Central Europe today, where do you get the lunatic idea that "it just would not work"?

You really need to read up on this subject because you clearly don't have a clue.

[Kensington]

SPN,

I though that i would not have to point it out and explain it, but, well, i was wrong. existing oil wells are declining by 6.7%. Oil production, according to the IEA, will peak in 2020. Global oil production will decline by no more than 3% per anum after peak. It is simple comprehension and commonsense.

Global oil supply will peak in 2020, says energy agency | Business | The Guardian

The Gas fields that are connected to Ireland by pipeline have peaked.

Some have; some have not.

Complete nonsense! We would have to buy each and every tanker load at auction, and as the UK found out last year, this can get very very expensive very fast.

LNG is the future. It is not nonsense.

Biofuels DO work. My car runs on rapeseed oil.

Oh well that's settled then!

We will be less dependent on fossil fuels, mainly because we won't be able to AFFORD fossil fuels.

Then we won't be able to AFFORD growing the biomass fuel. See that logic thing i did there.

If it works perfectly well in Scandinavia and Central Europe today, where do you get the lunatic idea that "it just would not work"?

What are you on about? The large majority of CHP in these countries is gas powered. You're spouting nonsense.

You really need to read up on this subject because you clearly don't have a clue.

hah

[fionnmccool]

When Hobbs and oil are mentioned in the same sentence I muse about how he tried to sell us apartments in Cape Verde and of all the oil needed to power a 6 or 7 hour flight over there.

[teach]

One thing I don't get about the peak oil theory and it's advocates is why they don't believe we can substitute currently used fuel sources with others such as algae oil and clean coal technology in the future?

[SPN]

SPN,

Then we won't be able to AFFORD growing the biomass fuel. See that logic thing i did there.

What "logic thing"?

You don't afford "growing biomass".

You plant it, and it grows. Solar power at its best.

What are you on about? The large majority of CHP in these countries is gas powered. You're spouting nonsense.

Have you stats to back up that assertion, or are you making stuff up again?

[Kensington]

You plant it, and it grows.

It doesn't work like that. It will not grow without fertilizer and it cannot be produced without a substantial amount of oil. We cannot grow enough efficently enough to power CHP plants around the country. If you have the evidence to prove otherwise, please show it to me. I would find it very interesting.

Have you stats to back up that assertion, or are you making stuff up again?

If you have stats to back up anything you say, please show them.

A quick Google (i recommend you use it) shows this:

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/30/59/2045811.pdf

One thing I don't get about the peak oil theory and it's advocate

Well, Peak Oil is not a theory in the traditional sense, it is a geological fact, accepted by everyone worthwhile in the field. The question is, when will oil production Peak. The IEA says it will peak in a decade. Some say it will peak sooner.

The problem is that there is nothing ready to replace oil and there probably will be nothing for many decades. There will be a tremendous supply shock and, as always happens, there will be economic devastation.

[SPN]

Morgan Stanley had a Conference Call today on Oil Production.

"Supply will be start to become inadequate and unable satisfy demand growth as new projects will not be able to replace diminishing production and aging fields fast enough starting in late 2010. After that they forecast a consistent shortfall of 2-3mm barrels a day until 2015 and then after that it gets worse."

Here we go. Hold on tight.

[H]

Here we go. Hold on tight.

Hysterical "Peak Oil" predictions have been going on since Oil was first discovered, such inane hysteria helped lead to the insane speculative prices before the market recently crashed.

Now that Iraq oil hopefully will be going back into production (the real reason for Ameica's invasion of it) prices will continue to ease.

Iraq: Oil and Economy

"the sands of Iraq hold oil... lots of it. According to the US Energy Information "Administration (EIA), "Iraq holds more than 112 billion barrels of oil - the world's second largest proven reserves. Iraq also contains 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and is a focal point for regional and international security issues."

There is a vast amount of fossil fuel left in the world waiting to be exploited

Ice on fire: The next fossil fuel - environment - 24 June 2009 - New Scientist

"Collett estimates there is between 0.7 and 4.4 trillion cubic metres of methane clathrate in Alaska alone"

[Geckko]

Morgan Stanley had a Conference Call today on Oil Production.

"Supply will be start to become inadequate and unable satisfy demand growth as new projects will not be able to replace diminishing production and aging fields fast enough starting in late 2010. After that they forecast a consistent shortfall of 2-3mm barrels a day until 2015 and then after that it gets worse."

Here we go. Hold on tight.

How about:

oil from coal
oil from shale
oil from tar sands

[fiannafailure]

How about:

oil from coal
oil from shale
oil from tar sands

How about
very expensive
expensive
expensive