Eddie Hobbs: "We are now at Peak Oil"

[Kensington]

Our oil consumption in transport will be one of the first and most significant reductions as discretionary travel becomes more unaffordable after peak oil.

It's not going to see significant reduction over the next 20 years, certainly not by over half. If that did happen, we would be hit by a serious economic depression, so we couldn't afford the huge cost of CHP plants anyway. We have no real alternatives to oil as it is.

It will be very difficult to power CHP from Gas when Gas supplies are declining.

I know, there is no easy solution. We can, however, work to ensure that we will have gas supplies for the next 20/30 years.

We grow more fuel. Simple as.

It's not that simple. Even if we were to grow large amounts of willow to power CHP, it would take a large amount of fertilizer and oil to produce.We would have to plaster the whole country with willow, displacing everything else. Even then, we wouldn't produce enough to power the country.

It is absolutely not feasible to build nationwide CHP infrastructure in the next 10/20 years and there is no way that we have enough wood waste to supply even a tiny fraction of it.

No country in Europe can do it. The large majority of European CHP is gas-powered. Out of interest, what makes you think that it's feasible? have there been any studies done saying that it is?

[Murra]

Heres a nice little film which shows how the Transition movement is growing in Kilkenny area, how 400 fruit trees are being planted, including some old species that were lost during the "oil years", now re-planted due to the excellent work over the years of Irish seedsavers. All the while people of all ages and all walks of life are learning about PEAK OIL and with that participating in groups preparing for the change.

Enjoy the film, theres a nice review of it on Rob Hopkins blog

YouTube - 400 Fruit Trees Project Kilkenny

Nice to see Green Mayor for Kilkenny, Malcolm Noonan leading the way in projects such as this

[wombat]

It is absolutely not feasible to build nationwide CHP infrastructure in the next 10/20 years and there is no way that we have enough wood waste to supply even a tiny fraction of it.

I looked at a proposal for a wood fired CHP in 2007. Basically they wanted us to buy all their steam which we didn't need. I next looked at a wood fired boiler but the cost of using wood as a fuel was too high and not that environmentally friendly when you added in the extra deliveries needed. I'm sure its different if you're running a sawmill and have a lot of waste product to dispose of.

[SPN]

It's not going to see significant reduction over the next 20 years, certainly not by over half. If that did happen, we would be hit by a serious economic depression, so we couldn't afford the huge cost of CHP plants anyway. We have no real alternatives to oil as it is.

The International Energy Agency is saying oil production will decrease by a minimum of 6.7% per annum, which would see the world down to 50% in ten years, and down to 25% in 20 years.

That's why we need to build the CHP plants NOW.

I know, there is no easy solution. We can, however, work to ensure that we will have gas supplies for the next 20/30 years.

What does "work to ensure" mean? The UK is now a nett importer of Gas. Both Norway and Russia are predicting declines in their Gas exports. If there is no Gas in the pipelines what are you proposing?

It's not that simple. Even if we were to grow large amounts of willow to power CHP, it would take a large amount of fertilizer and oil to produce.We would have to plaster the whole country with willow, displacing everything else. Even then, we wouldn't produce enough to power the country.

I think you need to read up on the subject. You are either making unfounded assumptions, or your sources of information are incorrect.

[Kensington]

SPN,

The International Energy Agency is saying oil production will decrease by a minimum of 6.7% per annum

No they didn't. There is no way that oil production is going to fall by at 7% per anum. It will probably stay fairly level for a few years then global oil production will fall by about 3% per anum.

I don't know where you got 7% from. That may be referring, to production from existing fields such as Cantrell or the North Sea.

If there is no Gas in the pipelines what are you proposing?

There will likely be sufficient gas for at least 30 years, probably longer. Our best option is to turn Ireland into an LNG hub for the UK. Singapore plans to become an LNG hub for Asia, we should look at doing something similar.

You are either making unfounded assumptions, or your sources of information are incorrect.

My sources are correct. Speak to any expert and say you want to generate 30% of Ireland's energy from wood waste. I dare ya! I don't know where you are getting the idea from, but it sounds like something the Green Party would come out with.

[Kensington]

wombat,

For a home, they may be worth it if you have a supply of your own wood. I'm not sure of the costs though, i doubt it would be worth it if you had to buy the wood.

CHP may work in Scandinavia, but i doubt it would here. We would not need the same about of heating and, besides, we would have to pipe every house in urban areas up to the system.

The real problem, though, is fueling them. They would have to be gas powered. There is no way that there is enough wood-waste to fuel even a tiny percentage of what is needed. We just don't have the resources. Deforesting the country is not a good idea.

[fiannafailure]

Kensington
would you support the call for a properly researched national energy policy

http://www.politics.ie/economy/83362...h-economy.html

[SPN]

SPN,

No they didn't. There is no way that oil production is going to fall by at 7% per anum. It will probably stay fairly level for a few years then global oil production will fall by about 3% per anum.

Yes they did!

Read the report!

I don't know where you got 7% from. That may be referring, to production from existing fields such as Cantrell or the North Sea.

Cantarell is depleting by more than 20% per annum, and the North Sea is depleting by more than 20% per annum.

There will likely be sufficient gas for at least 30 years, probably longer. Our best option is to turn Ireland into an LNG hub for the UK. Singapore plans to become an LNG hub for Asia, we should look at doing something similar.

Sufficient for what?

Global gas production is at about peak, but the pipeline into Ireland os connected to fields that are in decline.

My sources are correct.

Hardly.

Speak to any expert and say you want to generate 30% of Ireland's energy from wood waste. I dare ya! I don't know where you are getting the idea from, but it sounds like something the Green Party would come out with.

Who said anything about wood waste? Most of the Biomass used in CHP plant that I am aware of is grown specifically for purpose.

[Kensington]

SPN,

I do not have to read the report to know that the IEA did not say that global oil production would fall by 7% per anum after peak. Why? Because that would be a silly thing to say.

Global gas production is at about peak, but the pipeline into Ireland os connected to fields that are in decline.

Global Gas production is not about to peak. Gas production follows a different curve to oil. It will not peak for, maybe, 30 years.

We need to build LNG. Shannon can become an LNG gateway into the UK and Europe. If we do that, we will have enough gas for a long time.

Who said anything about wood waste? Most of the Biomass used in CHP plant that I am aware of is grown specifically for purpose.

Right, so you want to grow something, say willow or straw, to power the CHP plants. It's not going to work; the same way biofuels won't work. Think of the fossil fuels that would be needed to grow it. Think of the extra food imports we would have to source, as huge areas of agricultural land would be turned to this. We simply could not do it. It would not make us any less dependent on fossil fuels. It would be amazingly expensive. And, more importantly, it just would not work.

[Kensington]

fiannafailure,

I certainly would. I think that the Government needs to take the reigns. This is an interesting talk by Jimmy Carter on a Comprehensive Energy Strategy. He is the man who managed to achieve it last. It's a pity that paddy came in and screwed everything up after.

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