Eddie Hobbs: "We are now at Peak Oil"

[fiannafailure]

You were doing well until the last line. If you are just another 'sneerer', then I can see why there is so much antipathy to SofI even amongst envirinmentalists.

I suspect you only want the world to be saved if your preffered methods are used.

No the last line is the most important, I have proposed projects to the industry and got nowhere, I do not believe in knocking any one's idea unless I can come up with a better one, you make the introductions and I will re present those proposals.
The S of I proposals have environmental costs, every method of generation has environmental costs bar none, I believe that those costs have got to be addressed not hidden. When you sweep enough stuff under the carpet there comes a day when you trip yourself up.
Incidentally the clue to how to tackle nuclear waste is in the method of achieving the waste in the first place, breaking nuclear bonds, but breaking nuclear bonds has a large energy cost which is the reason I believe the industry does not want to address it.
But again I state, I do not want to oppose a nuclear plant in Ireland as long as the real costs are stated upfront, and I do not believe that if they were, it would affect the nuke argument fatally.
I cannot be any clearer than that

And it will take a lot more than my efforts to save the world

[Kensington]

fiannafailure,

Why are the IAE so pessimistic as regards wind and pumped-storage and you so confident?

Do you really think that you can get 11 billion Euro in private investment for this project in two years?

What about the planning and licensing face, how long is that estimated to take?

It just seems incredibly optimistic. Oil will peak by 2020 according to the IEA. Our gas supplies are not secure in the next 20 years, so we have very few options. We need an integrated, comprehensive energy security policy, every other country is doing it bar us.

I know of the costs of nuclear and would dearly prefer if we did not have to do it, but we do. Take a look at an honest look at our position going forward and tell me we don't. We are in one of the most precarious positions in Europe, yet we are rejecting our only secure option.

Good luck with it, but i think the Government needs to step up and stop putting all hope on the British interconnecters and private investors.

[fiannafailure]

Amblin
I will explain what I mean, there has been only one environmental query raised on the S of I forum, from Joseph Wheately, and his objections to S of I placing turbines in bogland did not result in a denial of his claims, it resulted in a team of people doing a large body of research into bogs and how the environmental damage can be largely eliminated, this work will be complete soon and will be publicly available, no denial instead acceptance and all that follows.
and to be fair to Joseph he also provided alternatives

[fiannafailure]

fiannafailure,

Why are the IAE so pessimistic as regards wind and pumped-storage and you so confident?

Do you really think that you can get 11 billion Euro in private investment for this project in two years?

What about the planning and licensing face, how long is that estimated to take?

It just seems incredibly optimistic. Oil will peak by 2020 according to the IEA. Our gas supplies are not secure in the next 20 years, so we have very few options. We need an integrated, comprehensive energy security policy, every other country is doing it bar us.

I know of the costs of nuclear and would dearly prefer if we did not have to do it, but we do. Take a look at an honest look at our position going forward and tell me we don't. We are in one of the most precarious positions in Europe, yet we are rejecting our only secure option.


Good luck with it, but i think the Government needs to step up and stop putting all hope on the British interconnecters and private investors.

I have not rejected it and S of I have not or will not reject it, we do not believe we are omnipotent or the moral guardians of Irish energy

And as regards the work being done by S of I, the autumn will reveal the extent of it and real work is being done on all of the points you raise

[amblincork]

No the last line is the most important, I have proposed projects to the industry and got nowhere, I do not believe in knocking any one's idea unless I can come up with a better one, you make the introductions and I will re present those proposals.
The S of I proposals have environmental costs, every method of generation has environmental costs bar none, I believe that those costs have got to be addressed not hidden. When you sweep enough stuff under the carpet there comes a day when you trip yourself up.
Incidentally the clue to how to tackle nuclear waste is in the method of achieving the waste in the first place, breaking nuclear bonds, but breaking nuclear bonds has a large energy cost which is the reason I believe the industry does not want to address it.
But again I state, I do not want to oppose a nuclear plant in Ireland as long as the real costs are stated upfront, and I do not believe that if they were, it would affect the nuke argument fatally.
I cannot be any clearer than that

And it will take a lot more than my efforts to save the world

Fair enough.

[DerekOwens]

I heard Eddie Hobbs talking about this on another occasion - he was also pushing "Spirit of Ireland" for more than it was worth. I think he has just made a business decision to get into promoting renewables now that property has gone sideways.

Yes, we may well have reached peak oil. As food production depends heavily on oil this is a serious thing.

In fairness to Eddie, he's been talking about peak oil and investing in renewables for a number of years now.

[fiannafailure]

Eddie Hobbs is well able to defend himself, but I will say that he lives or dies by the things he says, if he gets it too wrong his career is finished.

[Kensington]

Well, he is just repeating what the IEA and even EIA are saying. He is taking a pretty safe bet.

It's funny though. The IEA and, in particular, EIA have been laughing off Peak oil for decades now. It appears that over the last 12 months, they have completley changed their tune. It's very strange, but, as Eddie pointed out, the Government are ignoring it.

[fiannafailure]

Well, he is just repeating what the IEA and even EIA are saying. He is taking a pretty safe bet.

It's funny though. The IEA and, in particular, EIA have been laughing off Peak oil for decades now. It appears that over the last 12 months, they have completley changed their tune. It's very strange, but, as Eddie pointed out, the Government are ignoring it.

I hope they are not
Incidentally if you go to the S of I website Spirit of Ireland - National Project for Energy Independence there is a new entry in the news section about the Institute of Engineers, the report came out before our presentation so the next one will be different have a look

[Watcher1]

On the final Questions and Answers the other night, Eddie Hobbs led a discussion on Peak Oil.

"If we look to the immediate future, I think that there’s issues far bigger than Government coming down the tracks," said Hobbs. "The biggest issue of all is the one related to energy. The International Energy Agency report that came out in November was lost in the media melee over banking and it completely reverses a lot of the predictions that we’ve used to base our entire national economic planning around. It seems to me that we’re now at Peak Oil production globally so we’re entering the age of scarcity.

"We have this collective view that we’re somehow going back to what was there before with just less wealth and I believe we’re entering a brand new economic age and the future is all about energy efficiency, energy creation, green technology and we’ve a lot of catching up to do in order to prepare for that. And we’ve great potential to do so."

John Bowman: And do you think the public are ready for that message?

Eddie Hobbs: No, this is the problem. It’s not until oil hits €200, €250 €300 a barrel that people will accept it, because it’s a very personal thing. But even nationally our preparedness really is quite pathetic. For example our most recent reports on oil supplies and on what we would do in the event of oil shortages are two huge reports and there isn’t even one sentence dealing with the possibility that we’re actually at Peak Oil. Even Fatih Birol, the chief economist with the IEA says it’s 2020 but some say it’s earlier."

Minister John Gormley "Eddie is absolutely right. We have twin problems: scarcity of oil and climate change. Despite the global recession it’s very clear that our emissions are growing by 1.9% per annum, so we’re using up our oil resources."

John Bowman then diverted the discussion to wondering why climate change hasn't caught the public imagination with Noel Whelan accepting that the Green Party had brought the issue to public attention.

see for yourself: RTÉ News: Questions and Answers

As Transition Town groups organise themselves throughout Ireland and the wider world to prepare their communities for the changes associated with Peak Oil and Climate Change, what can they realistically achieve? Why is there no national Plan A or B to cope with what Hobbs refers to as the coming "age of scarcity"?

Because our politicians are incapable of setting realistic and workable and cost effective action plans, and I dont just mean FF. I would lump the Greens in there too even on environmental planning. They are far too over the top. Look at their new "targets" for renewable/wind energy - 40% by what 2030 or something. Absolutely ridiculous. A 20bn plan I believe. They truly are indoctrinated into the FF mentality of throw money at something and call it investment.