Spiritofireland.org - suggests energy independence in five years and much more

[fiannafailure]

[quote=sparkey321;1918430]

The analogy sucks.

To continue on your analogy what you are doing is designing and building a car before deciding on its purpose.

Is it to be a drag racer or a touring car.

Short bursts of high power
Or sustainable long term power.

Same technology but fundamentally different results.

A 200Gw hour reservoir with a 10G turbine capacity is one thing and will have one cost benefit done on it.

A 200GW hour reservoir with a 500MW turbine capacity is a completely different thing with a completely different cost benefit analysis.

That has been widely advertised, our preferred initial site will have a plus 100GW/Hr capacity and 10 X 100Mw turbines, how that will be used is the question we are asking

Hyperbole. Complete and utter hyperbole and would be dreamt up by some too bit PR advisor.

Its the "Think of the Children" Argument

No its the, think of my own children and what is the most useful gift I can give them for their future, argument

What business people have you asked. I'm a business man I was not asked, none of my associates were asked. None business man I know was asked.

I have extended numerous invitations to you for a presentation on the project, and I can only surmise that you have been too busy to accept, but those that have accepted our invitation, will no doubt make their feelings known when it suits them, not you or me. Many have offered financial support for the public debate, and when we judge ourselves ready to accept their offers, I presume that would be made public.

What interests me is reducing my energy costs.

Lets be very real about your energy costs, they are very unlikely to be much cheaper than they are now, for a very long time, I quoted the figure of 4c a unit for the last 5 months, the average for the preceding 12 months was 6.5c and most predictions for our current fuel mix in 5 years time are that it will often reach 10c, and those are wholesale prices, our perception is that if the regulator believed that we could sustain 4c. the retail price would have reduced by a further 3c a unit, It didn't.

10% but SOI are proposing on adding how much capacity ? How would that affect the current oversupply ?

I said that 10% of plants are due to close soon, we would like replace thermal plants with wind/hydro as these plants retire, and thermal plants have limited lifetimes, they will all need to be replaced over the coming years

Ignoring the fact that 5.8 cent is a different price to that quoted previously.

How much will the addition of the reservoirs add to this ?

Even using your figure of 85% efficient the losses alone from the reservoirs will increase this to 6.82 cent.

As you do more research you become better informed and of course you start to quote different figures and the limiting effect of this form of debate means that it takes longer to get info across.

We believe that we can reduce break even figure of new wind farms by at least a cent per unit, the break even price for storage per unit is much less than a cent add the conversion losses and you get back to to just below 7c, for at least a decade, you havent answered the one question I asked in my previous post.

Plus you have the initial cost of the network you propose and allowing for a profit for the wind generators and SOI.

Before adding these you are already proposing to Increase CURRENT electricity costs by 45% (4 cent to 5.8) add if you include reservoir losses its a 70% increase on what are already the second highest energy costs in Europe

..

ESB networks currently write down the value of their transmission network investments over 30 or 40 years, I cant remember which, why should S of I do any different.
What I am saying is that S of I can keep their costs below last years wholesale prices.

Sparkey there is very little difference between the cost of running a generating set between Ireland and any European country, I have guided you on wholesale prices which compare to European average, yet as you say We have the 2nd highest retail price, Why indeed

I would be curious as to how most business people you approached felt about that......

I didnt tell them your version I told them our version with references to where our figures could be checked

Until you can give an independently audited cost of electricity produced there will be no discussion because there will be nothing to discuss. No one will invest in something without knowing how much it will cost, fore casted revenue and margin.

Again I am telling you that these are being prepared and again I am stating that we not asking anyone for a cent until we have

[riven]

Many people ask the question what is the hurry, why have S of I declared that this needs to be done in 5 years, and the answer has three strands, the first is that we have now embarked on a depression

That is no reason to hurry a project. In fact there is no such thing in 'hurrying' a project and as soon as such a word is used I become very dubious. I have seen projects go through the five stages list in under 2 years (cat cracker in an oil refinery) and some projects (such as the one I am currently involved on); over 10 years.
In sound engineering terms there are only two good reasons for speeding up a project; either you have an influx of people or an influx of investment.

I will answer this in more detail later but the effiency figure depends on the use you put to the facility, peak or baseload, but a good average is 85%

yes and no. As I have previously pointed out SOI are porposing to radically change the grid infastructure. Therefore the total efficiency cost of the pumped storage must be considered which includes transmission to and from the resevoir; which has not been included.

This I can tell you is not an issue, there is a production line of seawater pumped storage plants in the works globally, this problem has been solved

Oh yes it is. Sea water is corrosive to many metals and chloride resistant stainless steel has to be used. The cost of using saltwater instead of non saltwaqter typically increases your metal prices by 1.2-1.5 times depending on the size ands scale of application. If the 800million previous quoted for a PSH is based on fresh water but is using saltwater, then the figure is not valid.

[quote]That depends on the national buy in to the concept and dont forget phase two of the project will see us go off shore to harvest wind and wave [/qoute]

ok so there is now a phase one and two. Finally that gets cleared up.

The proof of concept of pumped hydro was completed decades ago, proof of concept of seawater pumped storage was begum 11 years ago and completed to most opinion about 5 years ago, I refer you to JPower

Again you misunderstand: you have to consider the entre system not just single parts of the system. The different pieces of technology may work but can they meet the proposal.
The proof of concept in this case is providing a full conceptual design (which in this case is close to stage 3 design as experiments cannot be completed) and showning that the proposed system can deal with the demands placed upon it. Since it is concept only peak periods of demand with low periods of supply would need to be considered. I have not seen this.

We are vague for the very good reason

Can can quote my experience and I can quote another engineers experience of over 60 years to say that being vague in engineering terms is useless. Any engineer that is 'vague' under me is sacked/let go.

[sparkey321]

That has been widely advertised, our preferred initial site will have a plus 100GW/Hr capacity and 10 X 100Mw turbines, how that will be used is the question we are asking

What has been widely advertised has changed so often that I no longer know what exactly is what.

No its the, think of my own children and what is the most useful gift I can give them for their future, argument

No its hyperbole.

Your proposal is for 2 reservoirs (or has that changed also)

So maximum of 2GW output and a cost that we accept is going to be higher (in my mind significantly higher) than current electricity costs. Its a proposal with some potential but its not the quantum leap you make out. It is not going to have a earth shattering impact on Irish society.

I have extended numerous invitations to you for a presentation on the project, and I can only surmise that you have been too busy to accept, but those that have accepted our invitation, will no doubt make their feelings known when it suits them, not you or me. Many have offered financial support for the public debate, and when we judge ourselves ready to accept their offers, I presume that would be made public.

You issued 1 invite and if I remember correctly didn't conform the date until after the event but yes you are correct I am busy but as I told you if there is a presentation I can attend I will attend it. However I have seen the presentation on-line and to be honest there was no a whole lot there to make me change my opinion.

Lets be very real about your energy costs, they are very unlikely to be much cheaper than they are now, for a very long time, I quoted the figure of 4c a unit for the last 5 months, the average for the preceding 12 months was 6.5c and most predictions for our current fuel mix in 5 years time are that it will often reach 10c, and those are wholesale prices, our perception is that if the regulator believed that we could sustain 4c. the retail price would have reduced by a further 3c a unit, It didn't.

Irish energy prices are currently much higher than our European neighbours and are actively discouraging investment in this country. That is a fact.

Our energy prices are completely out of line and need to be addressed. You have posted across numerous threads that SOI will reduce energy costs. Which is plainly not true. Even the government admitted that at our current prices (which are already high by international standards) that wind power is unsustainable and requires a subsidy 9an actual direct subsidy over their already hidden indirect subsidies). Soi are proposing to put an additional layer of costs on top of the wind power (reservoir \ infrastructure costs)

All I am asking is that you be honest.

The last part of you comment is complete and utter nonsense. How could retail prices reach 75% of wholesale prices ? Retail prices by their definition have to be higher then wholesale.

I said that 10% of plants are due to close soon, we would like replace thermal plants with wind/hydro as these plants retire, and thermal plants have limited lifetimes, they will all need to be replaced over the coming years

You Are quoting a reservoir of 1GW.....

That much more than 10%. You also say we currently have an oversupply of power but are their not plants due to open to add to this oversupply. Even if not removing 10% and adding 1GW is a net increase in supply......

And yes thermal plants have a finite lifespan but so do expensive wind-turbines. I also think that you will find that the lifespan of wind turbines is also shorter than thermal plants.

As you do more research you become better informed and of course you start to quote different figures and the limiting effect of this form of debate means that it takes longer to get info across.


We believe that we can reduce break even figure of new wind farms by at least a cent per unit, the break even price for storage per unit is much less than a cent add the conversion losses and you get back to to just below 7c, for at least a decade, you havent answered the one question I asked in my previous post.

So I am ill informed now ?

7 cent is still 70% higher electricity costs than we currently have. 70%

..

ESB networks currently write down the value of their transmission network investments over 30 or 40 years, I cant remember which, why should S of I do any different.

Did I ask you to do any different ? You till have to right them off and your still have to pay maintenance costs and you still have to pay funding costs and you still have to make a profit.

They are all in addition to the wind costs.
Power from SOI will always be more expensive to produce than wind power alone. It does however have the advantage of security of supply but that still does not eliminate the cost issue.

What I am saying is that S of I can keep their costs below last years wholesale prices.

That's a direct contradiction what you just said. 7 cent is significantly higher than 6.5 cent.

Ok imagine SOI start up tomorrow and stat generating power into an oversupplied market. Everyone else is asking for 6.5 cent and SOI want 7 cent. You have two options make a loss or sell no power. (well there is a third option of subsidies)

Sparkey there is very little difference between the cost of running a generating set between Ireland and any European country, I have guided you on wholesale prices which compare to European average, yet as you say We have the 2nd highest retail price, Why indeed

That is a good question. Partially the regulator and partially high labour costs within the ESB.

BUT what will SOI do to reduce our electricity costs ?

Generate power that's by your own admission going to be 70% more expensive.......

Now perhaps I am slow here but how will that address the question you just asked ?

I didn't tell them your version I told them our version with references to where our figures could be checked

So what you are saying is that you never mentioned the possibility of higher electricity prices ?

Did you by any chance insinuate (as you have done here many times) that it would in fact be cheaper ?

Did you even mention actual costs ?

Again I am telling you that these are being prepared and again I am stating that we not asking anyone for a cent until we have

That's not what you said earlier. You said those figures would not be available until after the discussion was completed.

[fiannafailure]

Sparkey

I attempted to reply using quotes but would have ended up writing a short story

S of I have changed our proposal over the last 6 months and I expect it will be changed more over or after the coming public debate, we listen to what people say to us, we are not ideologues.
We set out to fix the problems with wind energy, which up to recently was regarded as something that had to be suffered as a way to reduce CO2 output.

Our analysis of the problems have since been endorsed by the Irish Academy of Engineers and very recently by a British equivalent.

We have employed eminent international consultants on the key engineering areas

Our engineering proposals have been endorsed widely in the engineering world

Our costings on our preferred site, for the first of our pumped storage units have been endorsed by the two biggest engineering companies in Ireland.

We are consulting the regulator and other relevant bodies on our financial analysis of the market

An Taisce have been given a list of our top 25 choices for pumped storage units and our digitised scans of those sites

We have given private and public presentations to all of the main political figures in the country

We have given a lot of private presentations to business with a lot more to come

We have consulted major European investment firms and taken their advice on how to build our financial proposal.

We have built a website including a public forum

We have met a huge amount of the main players in the energy market

We have committed to a more precise proposal in September

We have committed to a public consultation on our proposal and its environmental and economic costs and benefits.

We believe that our electrical output will be competitive now and very competitive over the next 5 years, and extremely competitive over the next 10 years

And we have done all that without asking for a cent from the public or the government and if that is hyperbole, life can be very cruel

I am personally an anti nuke head but I have personally met with a few of the main nuclear promoters and intend to meet them all, but the ones I have spoken to so far believe that nuclear and wind make good bedfellows and both need pumped storage to be competitive.

One of the people quoted as an argument against S of I is James Lovelock and yet on pages 104 and 105 of his book The revenge of Gaia he almost designs the S of I proposal

I believe that a wholesale price of 8-9c a unit will be very competitive beyond 2 years from now, but we could do it if pushed for 7c.
You may think that 4c is sustainable, I don,t.

EDIT and we are financed out of our own pockets not by any pressure group or vested interest

[Vega1447]

And we have done all that without asking for a cent from the public or the government and if that is hyperbole, life can be very cruel

If you don't ask for govt money then I will eat my (greasy, badly stained) hat.

If you don't need govt money then off you go, raise money on international markets, apply for planning permission etc..

And very good luck to you.

But you *do* both want and need govt money.

Am I wrong?

(Holds hat...)

[sparkey321]

Sparkey


You may think that 4c is sustainable, I don,t.

I never said it was.

What I said was 4 cent is higer than our euopean compeditiors. We need to be on par or cheaper then these not 100% higher.

[fiannafailure]

If you don't ask for govt money then I will eat my (greasy, badly stained) hat.

If you don't need govt money then off you go, raise money on international markets, apply for planning permission etc..

And very good luck to you.

But you *do* both want and need govt money.

Am I wrong?

(Holds hat...)

Very wrong

If we ask for and receive government money we must then submit to EU competition rules and many of the benefits will be lost to the Irish public

[Vega1447]

Very wrong

If we ask for and receive government money we must then submit to EU competition rules and many of the benefits will be lost to the Irish public

What State guarantees (price?) do SoI want?

Why

1. the meetings with the regulator and other relevant bodies on our financial analysis of the market
2. private and public presentations to all of the main political figures in the country

if your hand is not in the taxpayer's pocket?

[joel]

What State guarantees (price?) do SoI want?

Why

1. the meetings with the regulator and other relevant bodies on our financial analysis of the market
2. private and public presentations to all of the main political figures in the country

if your hand is not in the taxpayer's pocket?

It could be that they just want joined up thinking - you know, someone somewhere having an actual plan or something?

[fiannafailure]

What State guarantees (price?) do SoI want?

Why

1. the meetings with the regulator and other relevant bodies on our financial analysis of the market
2. private and public presentations to all of the main political figures in the country

if your hand is not in the taxpayer's pocket?

The only guarantees we want are legislation required for a private company to be a transmission asset holder and some clarification on the strategic planning laws, there may be legislation required for a national energy co-op