35%-44% average load factor?Originally Posted by Dios
Again this is fantasy. The best examples in the world obtain 35%. And as you expand the margin laod factor will decline.
25% would be more sensible, which for 9GW transaltes into and average of 2.3 GW.
Insufficient to cover base load (3.5-4GW) on average.
And we keep going in circles pointing out the same silly assumptions, naivety and down right mistakes ove and over and over.
Sorry, what was this entire ~70 page thread about again? Perhaps we should link to every word like wikipedia to prevent confusion.
Did you look at the entire 40 minute presentation? I think you should.
The average efficiency is 30% to 35% for larger, utility size turbines either offshore or near shore, as they tend to have higher efficiencies than small turbines because the larger rotors operate at higher Reynolds numbers. The wider blades of large turbines allow air to flow over the airfoil more efficiently and with less turbulence.
And hey, we are living in the country probably best positioned on earth for wind power, so we do indeed have higher efficiencies than normal. Geckko you've spent most of the thread and every other thread that mentions wind power running it down, with nary a link nor reference to back up a single word you have said, flying in the face of many billions of euros invested in the energies worldwide by people who know a great deal more than you about energy production, and are in a much worse position windwise. I'd say the only one living in fantasy land is yourself. Have you remembered the name of the budgie that was bludgeoned by a wind turbine yet?
Until you start providing said links and references, into the troll box you shall go.
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Geckko
S of I do not operate in the rest of the world.
Go to bed and study and then we will talk effiencyThe best examples in the world obtain 35%. And as you expand the margin laod factor will decline.
25% would be more sensible, which for 9GW transaltes into and average of 2.3 GW.
Firstly Its nowhere near energy independance nad the max load is over 6GW.
Secondly Even SOI are saying 80% independence.
Thirdly the reservoirs are in place to ensure security of supply and by definition the only secure supply is that from the reservoirs. SOI are for 1GW per reservoir so 2 reservoir= 2GW. Selling direct from turbines will do nothing for energy independence (as SOI themselves admit) as it is not reliable power and will require backup from existing stations.
Also all my calculations are based on 24 \ 7 production which wind alone is not even close to.
Based on this assumption (which is based on their data) their planned output is 2GW (max 3GW ) so I stand over my figures.
Its all in the presentation.
Sparkey
Firstly I should have realised the implications of asking for an email address, and the clever and witty way it was handled shows that you are no dumb ass.
The next presentation is to the institute of engineers early next week, but I have come to the conclusion you reside ......, I bothered to read your entire posting history, well skimmed through, and if it would be more suitable, I will arrange a presentation geographically closer to you if you wish, a bit of hard questioning never does any harm. Until then have a look at the video again and read my posts of today, and see if there is even a tentative hope of a meeting of minds.
Its not far off if you combine the reservoirs with the turbines for peak load.
Sure, why annoy all the people who put big money into the gas pipelines.
Well I have yet to be fully updated on every factor in this business, however I will point out that your earlier concerns were responded to and I would hope in a satisfactory fashion, albeit leading to further questions, which is as it should be. Given a little more time your concerns should be responded to.
Did you take a look at that met map I posted up earlier? According to that, the absolute worst case scenario is 15 days becalmed, which will never run concurrently, probably only one or two days in a row at most, and thats inshore, giving reservoirs a chance to replenish in the meantime. I think a lot of the detractors to this proposal miss the important point that Ireland is in a uniquely good position to take advantage of wind power, you can bump up the normal equations by a decent amount.
And if all else fails, we do have backup generation systems (which are a lot worse right now than the reservoirs would be), and an interconnector.
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That is irrelevant.
They quote annual revenues of 2.6 billion once up and running with 2 reservoirs providing 2 GW of power. I am not looking at payback or depreciation or even profit margins.
They quote annual revenue of 2.6 billion.
They quote 2GW output.
All the figures are from the proposal, I am making no assumptions or providing any figures, its all based on SOI figures from the presentation.
That's what I am asking you to clarify.
Are the figures correct for projected revenue ?
Are they based on wholesale or retail prices ?
What would the charge from Eirgrid be to distribute this ?
Believe it or not the e-mail address is real and I have owned the domain for quite a few years. It was not meant to be a dig at you (although the irony was not missed) its actually my main personal account and the word play was based on different circumstances when I was resisting the domain. A quick whois will confirm this. (plus check the spelling its a play on words)
My location is no secret I live in Limerick but travel allot.
I have now looked at the presentation twice and I still stand by what I posted. Read my last post for clarification.
The old "Ireland is different" hypothesis at work again.
What does the, quite extensive and priximate, UK wind generation operate at?
Answer: Nothing like 35%. More like 25%.
You people are like cultish religious fanatics.
You cannot combine the two. The entire reason for the reservoirs is to ensure security of supply. Wind power fluctuates and you cannot assume to get max output (or any output for that matter) at peak times. The only true (ie secure) output is that from the reservoirs.
I agree I was given some information I didn't have before but they basically confirmed what I had assumed (except the costings which is much lower than I had anticipated) and did clear up a few matters.
I wanted to avoid this and look purely at the financials but seeing as you brought it up.
15 days becalmed does not sound too far out but what about low wind ? High wind ? There is a finite band at which power can be generated above or below that band has the same effect as becalmed. You will have weeks on end when output will be low.
Even if we accept 15 days the proposal only allows for 6 days. (I know he said a week but if you look at it again its actually 6 days).
Inter-connector to buy power from where ? If you look at the proposal Europe will need to buy power from us not the other way around.
As for our current generation capacity. If SOI are providing cheap power for 320 days a year then how can our existing plant be kept manned and ready to generate (which the vast majority of our capacity is not suitable for IE it cannot be turned on and off or varied at short notice). I we were to do that then the cost of this would have to be added to electricity prices.
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