Spiritofireland.org - suggests energy independence in five years and much more

[Heorditas]

We are too dependent on fossil fuels for generating electricity and the present policy of one off windmills does nothing to address that problem.

100% agree

We will still have a demand for oil & gas for the foreseeable future but we need to use the present recession to diversify so that we are not crippled when prices rise again.

Agreed once again!
Unfortunately during recessions the money dries up for many investments.
Critically, we must make sure that we don't get a "green bubble" here to replace our housing bubble. That could prove disastrous.

[SIZE="1"](Still disagree that oil and gas prices are linked though )[/SIZE]

[wombat]

Critically, we must make sure that we don't get a "green bubble" here to replace our housing bubble. That could prove disastrous.

You would think that a Green minister of Energy would see the parallels between the mistakes made with tax breaks for housing development and tax breaks for renewable energy. Remember, the original intention for giving tax breaks for rental accomodation was to encourage the provision of rental accomodation in Dublin - it grew into the uncontrollable scam. We have a real danger of allowing the same people to set renewable energy policy - a windmill for everyone in the audience.

[deiseguy]

What are you on about? Gas is a complex product and it can't be dealt with on its own due to the nature of the energy industry.
There have been times where the gas and oil markets have appeared to be linked and at other times those supposed links have been broken.

Currently the price for gas is dropping. But wait a second.... the price of oil has been on a strong upward trend for 2009 while gas has been on a downward trend all year.
Shurely shome mishtake...

The LNG terminal in Shannon is costing €400/500m. LNG is really going to help smooth out any massive fluctuations in gas prices if there is sufficient storage. It would act as a great buffer against the price hikes industry felt last year.

Gas is definitely a more complex product than oil to treat and to ship. I have been doing a little research since your post and I would agree totally that gas has been dropping in price this year and for the last 18 months oil has risen slightly in the last 9 months no question.

However I could find no prediction of gas remaining at its current prices, I could find some argument between a steady rise in prices or a rapid tripling of prices. I also found a lot of reference to oil price parity when discussing gas prices and most commentators spoke of a strong link. If gas has no link to oil price it would be the only energy product I know of without one. There was also a fair degree of talk about gas contracts which obliged the purchaser to sign up for a years contract whereby he must pay for all of the gas contracted for regardless of whether he takes it. It seems that LNG tankers do not change direction to follow price once they have been dispatched.

The cost and availability of tankers seems to be subject to a lot of fluctuation. Prices seem to have fallen from late nineties to mid noughties but took off again from '04 on. I would imagine the lead time on an LNG tanker would be at least a couple of years from contract to delivery so would it be possible that the LNG capacity that has become available lately was signed up for quite a while ago. As more expensive newer tankers come on stream transport cost may be pushed up. I am not able to post attachments currently to backup what I am posting.

Also any mention of LNG terminal construction spoke of construction costs starting from US$1 billion.
I just mention this because you quoted a cost of €500 million for a terminal in Shannon. I didn't realise one was under construction there. Is the cost quoted a projected cost or the actual final figure.

The ultimate point of this post is that any movement towards LNG will not be a panacea for our energy problems. Also that LNG market does not function in some sort of sealed bubble. We have never had sufficient storage of any energy product in this country ever. That would require politicians with some higher brain function and a basic ability to plan. I don't see this changing with LNG.

[Heorditas]

However I could find no prediction of gas remaining at its current prices, I could find some argument between a steady rise in prices or a rapid tripling of prices.

That's because you don't get the information emailed to you every day .... like I do!

I also found a lot of reference to oil price parity when discussing gas prices and most commentators spoke of a strong link.

Most of these "commentators" are simply that ... commentators. They don't deal with the product on a daily basis.

If gas has no link to oil price it would be the only energy product I know of without one.

Not really. Coal can exhibit weird fluctuations too. The price of coal is very closely linked to output from Australia. If the mines get flooded, the price goes up!

There was also a fair degree of talk about gas contracts which obliged the purchaser to sign up for a years contract whereby he must pay for all of the gas contracted for regardless of whether he takes it. It seems that LNG tankers do not change direction to follow price once they have been dispatched.

These amateurs don't know what they're talking about. Gas can be sold back through variable contracts. I review contracts like this every day.

The ultimate point of this post is that any movement towards LNG will not be a panacea for our energy problems. Also that LNG market does not function in some sort of sealed bubble. We have never had sufficient storage of any energy product in this country ever. That would require politicians with some higher brain function and a basic ability to plan. I don't see this changing with LNG.

Oh I agree. However, the main point is that it will certainly give a lot of flexibility to the energy market and help ensure we don't see ridiculous prices like mid to late 2008 for another while.

[orbit]

Also any mention of LNG terminal construction spoke of construction costs starting from US$1 billion.
I just mention this because you quoted a cost of €500 million for a terminal in Shannon. I didn't realise one was under construction there. Is the cost quoted a projected cost or the actual final figure.

What difference does it make, even if it ends up costing a billion (which it won't)? It's a private sector investment.

And that's the beauty of it. Regardless of what other people think, these people believe they can build a terminal, ship their gas from the other side of the world, and still sell it at the market price (and make a profit). They'd hardly be spending hundreds of millions if they weren't sure of that.

[deiseguy]

These amateurs don't know what they're talking about. Gas can be sold back through variable contracts. I review contracts like this every day.




Oh I agree. However, the main point is that it will certainly give a lot of flexibility to the energy market and help ensure we don't see ridiculous prices like mid to late 2008 for another while.

Fair enough in my case in relation to LNG a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

[fiannafailure]

Heorditas

These amateurs don't know what they're talking about. Gas can be sold back through variable contracts. I review contracts like this every day.

Careful of the anonymity !!!

You will therefore be aware of the complexity of the energy markets in the UK, and contrast these dynamic markets with the Irish version of competition.

We have at present a situation where we could source all of our electricity needs from renewable energy and yet there is a huge amount of very new thermal plant in Ireland. The sensible thing to do is to make the export of our renewables viable and for that to happen the market rules must be amended in Ireland.

The government must take the employment potential of renewable energy and the shortage of generation capacity in the UK and devise a strategy that makes sense, and do it now.

[deiseguy]

Heorditas



Careful of the anonymity !!!

You will therefore be aware of the complexity of the energy markets in the UK, and contrast these dynamic markets with the Irish version of competition.

We have at present a situation where we could source all of our electricity needs from renewable energy and yet there is a huge amount of very new thermal plant in Ireland. The sensible thing to do is to make the export of our renewables viable and for that to happen the market rules must be amended in Ireland.

The government must take the employment potential of renewable energy and the shortage of generation capacity in the UK and devise a strategy that makes sense, and do it now.

I sense I am in the presence of my betters on both sides of this argument. Seriously why don't the two of you start another thread and thrash out the more complex elements of the debate. Agree some ground rules and use your status as senior members to keep other posters off the thread for a while but keep it visible to all.

[wombat]

Also any mention of LNG terminal construction spoke of construction costs starting from US$1 billion.
I just mention this because you quoted a cost of €500 million for a terminal in Shannon.

I suspect the billion refers to the plant which liquifies the gas, the Shannon plant would be a jetty, tank farm and evaporator, much less expensive but everything depends on size.

[fiannafailure]

I sense I am in the presence of my betters on both sides of this argument. Seriously why don't the two of you start another thread and thrash out the more complex elements of the debate. Agree some ground rules and use your status as senior members to keep other posters off the thread for a while but keep it visible to all.

deiseguy
It is the vast majority of the people of Ireland that needs to get into this debate, I want to have the most people possible at work in Ireland, our renewable resources are the way to do this, most other avenues are closed for the foreseeable future, as a by product we get stable electricity prices for the next two decades at least.

I do not though, wish to promote redundancies and capital destruction in the thermal generation part of the industry, however I am very determined that they will not be a ro****************************************** to developing our renewables.

I see that there could be in excess of 100,000 people working in the energy business in Ireland within 10 years, and gradually official Ireland are getting the message.

We are playing for very high stakes here.