Economic downturn to slash Ireland's GHG emissions

[zeleneye]

The recession could see our emissions drop by 7 million tonnes (70m - 63m), saving the government a chunk on the purchase of offsets, according to a piece in today's Guardian.

They are using the Stern methodology. It also uses the stat of a 9% drop in our GDP (i.e. to 2005 levels).

[YellowRedGreen]

Don't forget almost 40% of our non ETS emissions are in the Agriculture Sector. The same GDP to Emissions factors do not apply. Also our commitment is to have 63m on average over the 08-12 period, not in the lowest year so some purchases will still be necessary.

[zeleneye]

Also our commitment is to have 63m on average over the 08-12 period, not in the lowest year so some purchases will still be necessary.

That is not my understanding of how the EU's implementation of Kyoto worked. I thought we had to deliver our target (13%) in 2012. New EU legislation introduces a binding linear pathway for post 2012 reductions for sure.

On the agriculture side, it is also not so clearcut as you make out. For starters, eating habits change in downturns. Also, a lot of Ireland's agricultural emissions are due to the fattening of livestock (don't know the proper term) as far as I understand it. Surely this business will also contract in the downturn?

Anyway, the Guardian article is clearly back of an envelope stuff and not based on real research. However, what made me gasp was the scale of the immediate projected downturn.

[YellowRedGreen]

Kyoto period targets are definitely average values - see section on distance to target on page 17 of National Climate Change Strategy. (National Climate Change Strategy - Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government)
On the subject of Agriculture, our emissions are strongly affected by international agreements (such as CAP) and international demand for our beef and dairy related produce. See this link for a good discussion of same..
The Irish Economy Blog Archive The cost of carbon targets

Another interesting pointer is the price of carbon permits. This doesn't help the Irish Government directly but does give a good pointer to the diminishing scale of the problem. Cemex, a large Mexican owned producer, that operate across a range of European countries, sold over $100m in allowances during q3 of 2008, as these were excess to requirements for them. This should give us a flavour of what kind of out-turn to expect for 2008.

[seabhcan]

Its seems like the Green Party had a master plan all allong. Get into government, reduce CO2...

[zeleneye]

I am sure there will be a lot more like this. All of which reinforces how flawed the system of (over)allocation for permits combined with the free allocation is under the ETS.

[Mazzy Maz]

I knew the Green Party would get our emissions down, I just didn't know how. Helping FF destroy the economy, now that's thinking outside the box!

[zeleneye]

I knew the Green Party would get our emissions down, I just didn't know how. Helping FF destroy the economy, now that's thinking outside the box!

FF did that all by themselves over a period of 12 years (well unless you think the PDs were actually different) - they didn't need any help.

[GreenScene]

It won't be enough I am afraid. We need to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 70% if Climate Change is to be stopped. Some ideas to bring that about:

1, A one child policy and a substantial tax on people who have more than one child.

2, A huge tax on private vehicle ownership (5000+ per year).

3, A mandatory carbon tracking and rationing system. All purchases should be monitored and CO2 limits should be set. If a person exceeds their CO2 quota a levy will be applied.

4,Intelligent meters that monitor peoples energy and water consumption need to be installed in every home. If people exceed their quota a levy will be applied.

5, Mandatory Green Education seminars to raise awareness need to be rolled out across the country. If people fail to attend a fine should be imposed.

6, We need to re-evaluate our priority's and commit to reducing Irelands population. A sterilization program needs to be put in place to deal with anyone who is not pulling their weight is society. ,

7, Climate Change denial needs to be treated as a criminal offense.

[SKELLY]

It won't be enough I am afraid. We need to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 70% if Climate Change is to be stopped. Some ideas to bring that about:

1, A one child policy and a substantial tax on people who have more than one child.

2, A huge tax on private vehicle ownership (5000+ per year).

3, A mandatory carbon tracking and rationing system. All purchases should be monitored and CO2 limits should be set. If a person exceeds their CO2 quota a levy will be applied.

4,Intelligent meters that monitor peoples energy and water consumption need to be installed in every home. If people exceed their quota a levy will be applied.

5, Mandatory Green Education seminars to raise awareness need to be rolled out across the country. If people fail to attend a fine should be imposed.

6, We need to re-evaluate our priority's and commit to reducing Irelands population. A sterilization program needs to be put in place to deal with anyone who is not pulling their weight is society. ,

7, Climate Change denial needs to be treated as a criminal offense.

behold, the greens!
once a loose affiliation of students/krusties and stoners and now a suit wearing fascist group of tossers in power with a right wing party!! and all in the space of 25 years!